Ukraine struggles to hold eastern front as Russians advance on cities
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[May 18, 2024]
By Dan Peleschuk
DONETSK REGION, Ukraine (Reuters) - For Ukrainian gun commander
Oleksandr Kozachenko, the long-awaited U.S. ammunition can't come fast
enough as he and his comrades struggle to hold off relentless Russian
attacks.
His unit's U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer, which once hurled 100 shells a
day at the encroaching enemy, is now often reduced to fewer than 10.
"It's a luxury if we can fire 30 shells."
America says it's rushing ammunition and weapons to Ukraine following
the delayed approval of a $61 billion aid package by Congress last
month. As of early May, though, two artillery units visited by Reuters
on the eastern frontline said they were still waiting for a boost in
deliveries and operating at a fraction of the rate they need to hold
back the Russians.
Gunners with Kozachenko's 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd
Artillery Brigade, both in the Donetsk region, said they were desperate
for more 155mm rounds for their Western cannons, which had given them an
edge over Russia earlier in the war.
Resurgent Russian forces, which significantly outnumber and outgun the
Ukrainian defenders, have been mounting multiple attacks across the
eastern Donbas region in recent months and along the country's
northeastern border last week.
The drive has marked an inflection point in the conflict spawned by
Russia's full-scale invasion more than two years ago.
Russia has gained more territory in 2024 than it lost control of during
Ukraine's much-hyped counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, according
to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, a Finnish-based
volunteer group that analyses satellite imagery and social media content
from the war.
Moscow's forces have claimed 654 sq km since the beginning of this year,
outstripping the 414 sq km lost to Ukraine between June 1 and Oct. 1
last year, Paroinen said. Russia has gained 222 sq km of territory since
only May 2, he added.
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Russia's defense ministry didn't respond to a request for comment for
this article, while Ukraine's military didn't immediately respond.
Colonel Pavlo Palisa, whose 93rd Mechanized Brigade is fighting near the
key strategic city of Chasiv Yar, said he believed Russia was preparing
a major push to break Ukrainian lines in the east. This echoed the
commander of Ukraine's ground forces who said last week he expected the
war to enter a critical phase over the next two months as Moscow tries
to exploit persistent delays in weapons supplies to Kyiv.
"Without a doubt, this will be a difficult period for the armed forces,"
said Palisa, adding that he believes the Kremlin wants to capture the
entire Donbas industrial region by the end of this year.
CITIES BRACE FOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE
Russian forces are gradually making inroads that could come to threaten
several big cities in the east including Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka,
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which serve as key military hubs for Kyiv's
war effort.
Some gains are striking fear in the heart of the hundreds of thousands
of Ukrainians living in those Donetsk region cities as the enemy grinds
ever closer.
"We live only for today," said 31-year-old school teacher Nina
Shyshymarieva, standing with her young daughter outside a church in
Kostiantynivka as artillery thundered in the distance.
"We don't know what will happen tomorrow."
Russian cannons are now easily within range of Kostiantynivka; the
closest Russian position at the start of 2024 was about 20 km away,
according to open-source maps that show shifting positions along the
frontline. Now it is 14 km.
Shyshymarieva and the fighters on the frontline were among more than a
dozen soldiers, commanders, residents and evacuation volunteers
interviewed by Reuters in eastern Ukraine over the last two weeks. They
painted a picture of deep uncertainty.
Much of the Donetsk region, which along with Luhansk makes up the
greater Donbas area, is under daily bombardment, typically targeted at
least a dozen times a day by Russian artillery or air strikes, according
to regional governor Vadym Filashkin.
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Donetsk region, Ukraine May 11, 2024. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/File
Photo
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Ruins of homes, apartment blocks and administrative buildings are
common sights in towns and cities.
Oleksandr Stasenko, a volunteer rescuer, said his team was receiving
more evacuation requests particularly from Kostiantynivka and
Kurakhove, another town further south, among other settlements.
Russian forces have encroached toward Kurakhove, too, advancing 2-3
km along the road running east from the town so far this year.
"Wherever the front line is approaching, people in those places are
trying to leave as soon as possible," said Stasenko, adding that his
group, East SOS, evacuates around two dozen a week, many of them
elderly or infirm.
'TIME IS NOT ON OUR SIDE'
Ukraine has roughly 1,000 km of frontlines to defend in the east,
north and south.
Some of the fiercest fighting in 2024 has centered on Chasiv Yar,
which commands important high ground 12 km away from Kostiantynivka.
It lies west of the devastated city of Bakhmut that Moscow seized
last year after months of costly combat.
Russian advances near Chasiv Yar, and further south around the
village of Ocheretyne, could drive wedges into territory relied upon
by Ukraine's war planners for logistics, analysts said, because they
would expose key roads to Russian fire.
A major highway leading west out of Kostiantynivka is already under
threat. Cutting it off entirely would mean transit hubs further
north, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, both numbering well over
100,000 people before the war, would lose a crucial supply line.
Russia's fresh assault on the northeastern Kharkiv region, which
began on Friday, also risks diverting stretched Ukrainian forces
from the eastern front, further compromising their ability to hold
the line, according to said Emil Kastehelmi, another analyst at
Black Bird Group.
"At the moment, it seems the goal of the (Kharkiv) operation is to
cause confusion and tie remaining Ukrainian reserves to areas of
lesser importance," he said.
Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the London-based RUSI
think-tank, said Russian forces would likely mount further attacks
on northern and southern points of the frontline in order to stretch
Kyiv's defenses.
"Once Ukraine commits its reserves in these directions, the main
effort will see the expansion of the Russian push in Donbas," he
wrote in a May 14 commentary.
A new law strengthening Kyiv's mobilization effort, which has been
hobbled by public skepticism, takes effect on May 18. Experts and
commanders say it could take several months before fresh recruits
reach the front and reinforce exhausted troops there.
Even if Ukrainian forces can hold out until all the American
ammunition and weapons get through to the front, the challenge ahead
remains daunting, according to many of those fighting.
"I would say that it is unlikely that time is on our side, since a
long war requires more resources," said Palisa, the colonel with the
93rd Mechanised Brigade, speaking hours after Russia launched its
ground incursion in Kharkiv.
He added that it would be critical to impose as heavy a cost on
Russia as quickly as possible.
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"The enemy's resources, whether in terms of manpower or the
materiel, cannot be compared with ours. It's extraordinarily large.
That is why a long war, I think, is not in our favor."
(Additional reporting by Anastasiia Malenko and Ivan Lyubysh-Kirdey;
Editing by Mike Collett-White and Pravin Char)
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