How might a US-Saudi civil nuclear deal work?
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[May 18, 2024]
By Arshad Mohammed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - White House National Security Adviser Jake
Sullivan will visit Saudi Arabia this weekend for talks expected to
touch on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, one piece of a wider
arrangement Washington hopes will lead to normalization of Israeli-Saudi
relations.
Below is a description of the key issues involved in a U.S.-Saudi civil
nuclear deal, what risks and benefits it may offer the United States and
Saudi Arabia, and how it fits within U.S. efforts to broker
Israeli-Saudi reconciliation.
WHAT IS A CIVIL NUCLEAR COOPERATION AGREEMENT?
Under Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the United
States may negotiate agreements to engage in significant civil nuclear
cooperation with other nations.
It specifies nine nonproliferation criteria those states must meet to
keep them from using the technology to develop nuclear arms or transfer
sensitive materials to others.
The law stipulates congressional review of such pacts.
WHY DOES SAUDI ARABIA WANT A US NUCLEAR COOPERATION AGREEMENT?
As the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia at first glance is not
an obvious candidate for a nuclear pact typically aimed at building
power plants to generate electricity.
There are two reasons Riyadh may wish to do so.
The first is that under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's ambitious
Vision 2030 reform plan, the kingdom aims to generate substantial
renewable energy and reduce emissions. At least some of this is expected
to come from nuclear energy.
Critics cite a second potential reason: that Riyadh might wish to
develop nuclear expertise in case it someday wished to acquire nuclear
weapons despite the safeguards enshrined in any deal with Washington to
prevent this.
The Saudi crown prince has long said that if Iran developed a nuclear
weapon, Saudi Arabia would follow suit, a stance that has fueled deep
concern among arms control advocates and some U.S. lawmakers over a
possible U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear deal.
The Sunni Muslim kingdom and Shi'ite revolutionary Iran have been at
odds for decades.
HOW WOULD THE UNITED STATES BENEFIT FROM A CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL WITH SAUDI
ARABIA?
There could be strategic and commercial gains.
The Biden administration has made no secret of its hope to broker a
long-shot, multi-part arrangement leading Saudi Arabia and Israel to
normalize relations. It believes Saudi support for normalization may
hinge partly on striking a civil nuclear deal.
The strategic benefits would be to shore up Israel's security, build a
wider coalition against Iran and reinforce U.S. ties to one of the
wealthiest Arab nations at a time when China is seeking to extend its
influence in the Gulf.
The commercial benefit would be to put U.S. industry in a prime spot to
win contracts to build Saudi nuclear power plants, as U.S. atomic
companies compete with Russia, China and other countries for global
business.
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White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks during a
press briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 9,
2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
WHAT ARE THE HURDLES TO A US-SAUDI CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL?
To start, it is all but inconceivable while the Gaza war rages.
Israel invaded the Gaza Strip after Hamas-led gunmen on Oct. 7
attacked southern Israeli communities, killing about 1,200 people
and taking 253 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
The Gaza death toll, health officials in the Hamas-run coastal
enclave say, has risen to more than 35,000 and malnutrition is
widespread.
It is hard to imagine the Saudis being willing to normalize
relations while Palestinians are dying in such numbers.
WHAT IS THE WIDER PACT IN WHICH A NUCLEAR DEAL MIGHT FIGURE?
The United States hopes to find a way to give Saudi Arabia several
things it wants - a civil nuclear pact, security guarantees and a
pathway toward a Palestinian state - in return for Riyadh agreeing
to normalize relations with Israel.
Earlier this month, seven people familiar with the matter told
Reuters the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia were finalizing an
agreement for U.S. security guarantees and civilian nuclear
assistance to Riyadh.
However, the wider Israel-Saudi normalization envisaged as part of a
Middle East "grand bargain" remains elusive.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE KEY ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT IN A SAUDI-US
NUCLEAR DEAL
A key issue is whether Washington might agree to build a uranium
enrichment facility on Saudi territory, when it might do so, and
whether Saudi personnel might have access to it or it would be run
solely by U.S. staff in a "black box" arrangement.
Without safeguards built into an agreement, Saudi Arabia, which has
uranium ore, could theoretically use an enrichment facility to
produce highly enriched uranium, which, if purified enough, can
yield fissile material for bombs.
Another issue is whether Riyadh would agree to make a Saudi
investment in a U.S.-based and U.S.-owned uranium enrichment plant
and to hire U.S. companies to build Saudi nuclear reactors.
(Sources: Atomic Energy Act of 1954; Brookings Institution;
Congressional Research Service; Reuters reporting)
(Reporting by Arshad Mohammed; Additional reporting by Timothy
Gardner and Jonathan Landay; Editing by Don Durfee and Jonathan
Oatis)
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