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The
poll showed new home prices would fall 5.0% in 2024, versus a
0.9% decline tipped in a previous survey in February. Prices are
likely to remain unchanged in 2025, compared with a 0.5% gain
forecast in February.
The poll was conducted between May 10 and May 17, and is likely
to have only partially taken into consideration Friday's
government announcement of support measures to stabilize the
property market.
Beijing pledged to facilitate up to 1 trillion yuan ($138
billion) in funding and to ease mortgage rules, with local
governments set to buy "some" apartments, which many analysts
said marked the government's strongest moves yet to turnaround
the sector.
However, questions remain about the latest measures, especially
over execution and how the government could help clear trillions
of housing inventory.
Since the property market plunged into crisis in 2021, Chinese
authorities introduced waves of policy support measures to shore
up demand with little effect.
The poll showed property sales likely shrank 10.0% in 2024,
steeper than the 5.0% slump forecast in the previous survey,
while investment was expected to fall 10.0% from the 6.1%
decline tipped in the earlier poll.
"There's still high possibility for more supportive policies
aimed at stimulating sales in the short run, which will help
ease the decline in property sales," said Xingping Wang, Senior
Analyst of Corporates, Fitch Bohua.
(Reuters Q2 outlook for major world housing markets)
($1 = 7.2301 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Shri
Navaratnam)
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