Weight-loss drug forecasts jump to $150 billion as supply grows
Send a link to a friend
May 28, 2024]
By Deena Beasley
(Reuters) - As millions seek access to weight-loss drugs from Novo
Nordisk and Eli Lilly, increasing supplies, possible wider usage and a
growing number of would-be rivals are leading some experts to raise
annual global sales forecasts for the treatments to about $150 billion
by the early 2030s.
A year ago, top sales estimates were in the $100 billion range.
"It is very unusual to have a medicine that is capturing the imagination
of millions of people," said Michael Kleinrock, senior research director
at healthcare analytics firm IQVIA Institute for Data Science.
Most insurers do not cover the new therapies with low co-payments, but
an unprecedented percentage of people are paying themselves or with
coupons from drug manufacturers, he said.
Global spending on obesity medications totaled $24 billion last year,
IQVIA estimated in its latest five-year outlook, and could reach $131
billion by 2028. That 27% annual growth estimate compares with a prior
projection of 13%.
Without insurance coverage expansion, IQVIA put the low end of global
obesity-drug spending at $39 billion in 2028 versus a more likely $74
billion.
Kleinrock said reaching $131 billion will also depend on how long
patients stay on a drug, whether the medications are used to treat other
diseases, or even development of new direct-to-consumer sales models.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2024/May/28/images/ads/current/siu_sda_PROMGARD_2024.png)
Shortages that capped sales in 2023 are being resolved, he said,
although sales are still limited in large part only by manufacturing
capacity.
Supplies of both Novo's Wegovy and Lilly's Zepbound remain constrained,
but the companies have been increasing production.
'CONSUMER DEMAND, UNMET MEDICAL NEED'
BMO Capital Markets now estimates annual weight-loss drug sales reaching
$150 billion by 2033, up from a year-ago forecast of over $100 billion
by the early 2030s.
Leerink forecasts annual sales of $158 billion by 2032.
Analysts cite recent data showing the self-injected drugs help stave off
costly emergencies like heart attack and stroke or treat chronic
conditions like sleep apnea, supporting the case for employers and
insurers to pay for them.
"There's consumer demand and the unmet medical need," said David Song,
portfolio manager of the Tema Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF. "A 100
million plus Americans are obese, and even more are overweight.
Worldwide, there are estimates out there of close to a billion who are
obese."
[to top of second column]
|
![](../images/052824PIX/health90.jpg)
A combination image shows an injection pen of Zepbound, Eli Lilly's
weight loss drug, and boxes of Wegovy, made by Novo Nordisk.
REUTERS/Hollie Adams/Brendan McDermid/Combination
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2024/May/28/images/ads/current/debbiesfloral_lda_MEMORIALDAY_2024.png) Sales of the new medications, which
have U.S. list prices of over $1,000 a month, have lifted Lilly and
Novo into the ranks of the world's most valuable companies. Shares
in Lilly are up 36% so far this year, while Novo has gained 33%.
Rivals see room for treatments that are more convenient, offer
better weight loss or promise additional health benefits. Some seek
to improve durability or quality of weight loss by distinguishing
between fat and lean body mass.
Lilly and Novo are also developing next-generation compounds.
Over 80 experimental obesity drugs have reached the human testing
stage, according to IQVIA.
The pipeline is dominated by drugs that, like Wegovy and Zepbound,
mimic an intestinal hormone called GLP-1, either on their own, or in
combination with compounds that target a second hormone called GIP,
such as Amgen's Maritide. Amgen expects mid-stage trial results late
this year.
Other experimental drugs, like Lilly's retatrutide, target the blood
sugar-regulating hormone glucagon in addition to GLP-1, GIP or both.
The third largest category includes drugs like Novo's amycretin,
which in addition to binding to GLP-1, targets a hormone called
amylin in the pancreas that affects hunger.
"There will be price competition" as new players enter the market,
Song said, but the bull case is that access will widen and higher
volume will offset price erosion.
(Reporting By Deena Beasley in Los Angeles; additional reporting by
Patrick Wingrove in New York; Editing by Caroline Humer and Bill
Berkrot)
[© 2024 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.]This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2024/May/28/images/ads/current/ldn_lda_BUSDIRCOVER_2024.png) |