After Trump's conviction, the jury is still out on political damage
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[May 31, 2024]
By James Oliphant, Helen Coster, Tim Reid and Gram
Slattery
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Donald Trump made history on Thursday as the
first former U.S. president convicted of a crime. But his ultimate
judgment won't come until November when he faces America's voters, who
have decidedly mixed feelings about voting for a felon.
Prior to the trial, surveys conducted by Reuters/Ipsos and other outlets
showed that some Republican and independent voters would consider
refusing to vote for Trump, a Republican, if he were convicted of a
felony.
Strategists from both major parties, voter interviews and the Trump
campaign have cast doubt on just how much a conviction could cost him at
the polls.
But in an election that could be razor-thin and decided by voters in a
handful of states, minimal damage could do Trump in.
“Even if it's just 1% in swing areas, that’s not nothing,” said Lindsay
Chervinsky, a presidential historian at Southern Methodist University in
Dallas.
A New York jury found Trump guilty of a scheme to cover up a hush money
payment to porn star Stormy Daniels to aid his political ambitions.
While some Republicans told Reuters they were standing by Trump after
they had considered abandoning him, others said the verdict was a final
breaking point.
“You can’t get away with everything and do everything you please,” said
Randy Drais, a 71-year-old retired government worker in York,
Pennsylvania, who voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Trump and his supporters immediately sought to use the guilty verdict as
rocket fuel to fire up his voter base and donors and to paint him as a
victim of political persecution.
"The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people," Trump said as he
emerged from court. "I am a very innocent man."
Democratic President Joe Biden's campaign concurred that, with the trial
over and Trump free to resume campaigning, the most important decision
will come on Nov. 5.
"(T)oday’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people
face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump
out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box," Biden's campaign
spokesperson Michael Tyler said.
Even so, Tyler couldn't resist labeling Trump a "convicted felon."
'POLITICAL PRISONER'
Trump's campaign website was already raising money off the verdict on
Thursday night and labeling Trump, who is not incarcerated, as "a
political prisoner." Major donors rallied around him, pledging millions.
Trump will face sentencing in the case on July 11, just before his
party's nominating convention.
Prison time is considered unlikely, and he is expected to quickly appeal
the jury's verdict, which could stay the proceedings against him.
Sprung now from the Manhattan courtroom where he has spent the last six
weeks, Trump can focus on shoring up his support and ensuring potential
stray voters stay in the fold.
Those voters include Mary Ing, 68, of Sun City, Arizona, who voted for
Trump in 2020 and had told Reuters/Ipsos pollsters several months ago
she would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a crime.
After his guilty verdict on Thursday, she said she has changed her mind
and will back him in November, although reluctantly.
"I would still rather vote for Trump than Biden," she said, blaming
Biden for high prices and saying she believes Trump will be better for
the economy.
Kim DiPiazza, 55, a retired hospice worker in New Eagle, Pennsylvania,
was another voter who had pledged to desert Trump if he were convicted.
She flipped before the trial was even over.
“My choices suck this year," she said. "But I am going to have to vote
for the Republican candidate, whoever it is. I'm not voting for Joe
Biden."
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump's looks on following the
announcement of the verdict of his criminal trial over charges that
he falsified business records to conceal money paid to silence porn
star Stormy Daniels in 2016, outside Trump Tower, in New York City,
U.S. May 30, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/ File Photo

According to Reuters/Ipsos polls earlier this year, just over half
of the people who had said they would vote for Trump said they would
still do so if he were convicted by a jury of a felony. Some 13%
said they would not vote for him in that case and 29% said they
weren't sure.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff was among those unconvinced by
such numbers. In his surveys, he told Reuters, those who said they
would consider voting against Trump are primarily core Republican
votes who hold strongly negative views toward Biden.
“By November, I believe almost all of these voters would be back in
the Trump column,” McInturff said.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll said that Trump is at the greatest risk of
losing college-educated women, a longtime vulnerability.
Only 50% of women Trump supporters said they would vote for him if
convicted, compared to 62% of men. Women were more likely than men
to say they were unsure if they would still vote for Trump if he
were convicted, and similar shares said they wouldn't support him.
But in a memo released this week by Trump's campaign, his pollsters
argued that neither a conviction nor an acquittal would make much
difference in the seven battleground states that could decide the
election.
Undecided voters, they said, "are largely unconcerned and their
votes aren't going to hinge on this trial."
Chervinsky, the presidential historian, said those findings didn't
surprise her.
“The sleaziness around Trump is sort of baked in,” she said.
BACK TO BUSINESS
When Trump was first hit with a salvo of charges including
allegations of election interference, mishandling classified
documents and the Daniels cover-up, the expectation was he would
spend much of 2024 in courtrooms and perhaps face a conviction for
attempting to undermine U.S. democracy itself.
But with the New York trial over and none of the other cases likely
to go to trial before November, the election could revert to
somewhat normal rhythms and be determined by traditional issues such
as the economy, abortion rights, border security and foreign policy.

Biden's approval rating matched his all-time low last week,
according to Reuters/Ipsos. Voters remain frustrated over
cost-of-living issues and that has hurt his chances.
Rodell Mollineau, a longtime Democratic operative on Capitol Hill,
said Biden should tread carefully in talking about Trump’s
conviction in order to win over voters who may be reluctant to leave
Trump.
“You don’t want to antagonize the voters you are courting by being
too sanctimonious,” Mollineau said.
But Ben Tulchin, the pollster for Democrat Bernie Sanders’ two
presidential campaigns, disagreed, saying Biden needs to do
something to shake up the race.
"I would think the Biden campaign would want to constantly remind
voters that Trump is a convicted felon and was found guilty by a
jury of breaking the law," Tulchin said. "The goal would be to make
it a character attack on Trump, drive up his negatives, and raise
doubts about Trump to move voters off of him and to Biden."
(Reporting by James Oliphant, Helen Coster, Tim Reid and Gram
Slattery; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Howard Goller)
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