College football picks: Hoosiers, fourth among Big Ten teams in playoff rankings, biding their time

 

[November 07, 2024]  By ERIC OLSON

One of the nitpicks about the first College Football Playoff rankings was that the committee undervalued Indiana.

The Hoosiers' No. 8 ranking — they're in the same spot in the Associated Press Top 25 poll — puts them fourth among Big Ten teams behind No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State.

If the season ended today, Indiana would be in the 12-team bracket as the No. 9 seed. The Hoosier faithful would argue they merit a higher seed.

Indiana is unbeaten, and the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions each have a loss. The Hoosiers have won all nine of their games by at least 14 points and they've outscored their opponents by a combined 419-123.

The knock against them is their schedule, ranked 103rd strongest by ESPN. They've played no teams in the AP Top 25. Six of their nine opponents went into this week with losing records, one is 4-4 and two are 5-4.

First-year coach Curt Cignetti, in comments before the CFP rankings were released, seemed OK biding his time.

The Hoosiers host Michigan, another of those 5-4 teams, on Saturday. Then, after a week off, they go to Ohio State for what would be one of the season's most anticipated games if they get past the Wolverines.

“Every week presents its own new set of circumstances and so there’s a lot of that going on this week,” Cignetti said of the noise around his program. “I’m aware of it. But to get kind of caught up on that and lose your focus would be the kiss of death.”

The picks, with Associated Press poll rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

Maryland at No. 1 Oregon (minus 25 1/2)

No one except Ohio State has come within three touchdowns of the Ducks since the first week of September. Maryland is playing a regular-season game on the West Coast for the first time in 15 years.

Pick: Oregon 48-20.

No. 2 Georgia at No. 16 Mississippi (plus 2 1/2)

QB Jaxson Dart has the hot hand, and disruptive LB Suntarine Perkins leads an Ole Miss pass rush that's racked up an FBS-best 41 sacks. Since Week 5, no FBS quarterback has thrown more interceptions than the Bulldogs' Carson Beck (8).

Pick: Mississippi 31-28.

Purdue at No. 3 Ohio State (minus 37 1/2)

Buckeyes have scored 20 and 21 points in their last two games and are due to break out. They've outscored Purdue 100-38 in two meetings since they were upset in West Lafayette in 2018.

Pick: Ohio State 49-10.

No. 4 Miami (minus 11 1/2) at Georgia Tech

Hurricanes have lost three of their last five against the Yellow Jackets, but those teams didn't have Cam Ward. The Georgia Tech offense is coming off its worst two games of the season.

Pick: Miami 33-21.

Florida (plus 21 1/2) at No. 5 Texas

Florida freshman QB DJ Lagway left last week's game against Georgia with a hamstring injury, leaving his status uncertain for his return to his home state. Texas is coming off an open date.

Pick: Texas 35-17.

Washington at No. 6 Penn State (minus 13 1/2)

The Nittany Lions have some pent-up frustration to release after losing another one to Ohio State. This is Washington's fourth road game, and third in the Eastern time zone, since Sept. 27.

Pick: Penn State 42-24.

Mississippi State at No. 7 Tennessee (minus 23 1/2)

The Vols' Nico Iamaleava played his best game in weeks against Kentucky, and the stage is set for him to put up some huge numbers against a defense that's allowed SEC opponents to complete 78% of their passes for 318 yards per game.

Pick: Tennessee 38-10.

Michigan (plus 14 1/2) at No. 8 Indiana

Indiana's Kurtis Rourke was sharp in his return from thumb surgery, and the Wolverines just don't have enough offense. Hoosiers should be 10-0 when they go to Ohio State.

Pick: Indiana 30-20.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti gestures during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

No. 9 BYU (minus 4) at Utah

Cougars lost nine in a row in this rivalry before winning 26-17 at home last year. They haven't won in Salt Lake City since 2006.

Pick: BYU 27-16.

Florida State at No. 10 Notre Dame (minus 25 1/2)

The last time these teams met, in 2021, FSU backup QB McKenzie Milton put a scare into the ninth-ranked Irish, who squandered an 18-point lead before winning 41-38 in overtime. Don't expect the Seminoles to put up the same fight this time.

Pick: Notre Dame 37-10.

No. 11 Alabama at No. 14 LSU (plus 3)

These are two teams battling for spots on the playoff bracket. Alabama would be in it now; LSU would be close. Both are coming off open dates. Tigers get the edge in a night game in Death Valley.

Pick: LSU 28-27.

Nevada at No. 12 Boise State (minus 24 1/2)

National rushing leader Ashton Jeanty of Boise State averaged 4.3 yards per carry his last two games, about half his season average. This is an opportunity to jump-start his fading Heisman Trophy campaign.

Pick: Boise State 49-21.

No. 17 Iowa State (minus 3) vs. Kansas

The Cyclones have gotten off to slow starts in their past four games, and it caught up to them last week when Texas Tech handed them their first loss. Kansas has won last two meetings. This one's at Arrowhead Stadium.

Pick: Iowa State 31-24.

No. 18 Army (minus 5 1/2) at North Texas

Army QB Bryson Daily, who missed last week's win over Air Force because of an undisclosed injury, is trending toward a return. The Mean Green average 41 points per game.

Pick: Army 42-27.

No. 19 Clemson at Virginia Tech (plus 6 1/2)

The Tigers lost control of their destiny in the ACC with last week's home loss to Louisville. They've won six straight against the Hokies since 2007, but Virginia Tech has proved to be a tough out this season.

Pick: Clemson 28-24.

Utah State at No. 20 Washington State (minus 20 1/2)

Cougars have won three straight, and dual-threat John Mateer is the best under-the-radar quarterback in the country. Utah State ranks 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in scoring defense.

Pick: Washington State 45-21.

No. 21 Colorado at Texas Tech (plus 3 1/2)

Buffaloes come out of their open date having won five of six, bowl eligible and in the thick of the Big 12 race. The Red Raiders showed moxie last week, driving for the winning touchdown against Iowa State after losing the lead with just over 2 minutes left.

Pick: Colorado 35-34.

Virginia at No. 23 Pittsburgh (minus 7 1/2)

Pittsburgh got embarrassed at SMU in its first loss and looks to rebound. Virginia is in the meat of its schedule and has lost three in a row.

Pick: Pittsburgh 34-24.

South Carolina (minus 3 1/2) at No. 24 Vanderbilt

Gamecocks are better than their 5-3 record indicates, and they've got momentum from a 24-point win over what was a top-10 Texas A&M team. Vanderbilt plays everybody close.

Pick: South Carolina 27-21.

AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 12-3; Against spread — 8-7.

Season: Straight-up — 151-39; Against spread — 98-91.

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