College football picks: Tricky games could make path to Big 12 title game bumpy for BYU and Colorado

 

[November 14, 2024]  By ERIC OLSON

The college football season rolls into Week 12 with the races in the power conferences far from decided.

One game separates first and sixth place in the SEC, and an eight-way tie for first at the end of the regular season is possible.

There also is a one-game spread between first and fourth in the ACC, while No. 5 Indiana and No. 1 Oregon share the Big Ten lead with No. 2 Ohio State and No. 4 Penn State lurking.

BYU and Colorado have the inside track to the Big 12 championship game, but depending on the outcomes of three games Saturday, that conference also could turn into a free-for-all:

— No. 7 BYU hosts a three-win Kansas team that has improved greatly the last month and just knocked Iowa State out of the AP Top 25.

— No. 18 Colorado is at home against a gritty Utah team that has lost five in a row, the last three by a total of 10 points.

— No. 20 Kansas State hosts Arizona State in a meeting of two of the four teams tied for third place.

BYU is going for its first 10-0 start since 2001 after having won three games on its final possession. Coach Kalani Sitake calls the Kansas game “Super Bowl X."

“This is one of those matchups you have to take seriously," he said. “I'm excited we have it at home. We see the talent they have and we have to be at the top of our game. They can get up on you and beat a ranked team.”

The picks, with Associated Press poll rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 1 Oregon (minus 14) at Wisconsin
It took until the middle of the third quarter for Oregon to pull away from Maryland last week, and this game might play out the same way. The Badgers have given up only two plays of 40-plus yards, but they've also lost by 32 points to Iowa.

Pick: Oregon 35-17.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. Northwestern (plus 29 1/2)
Buckeyes go into the game at Wrigley Field having won 39 of the last 41 meetings, and all but four of those victories have been by double digits.

Pick: Ohio State 39-10.

No. 3 Texas (minus 13 1/2) at Arkansas
Arkansas QB Taylen Green and leading rusher Ja'Quinden Jackson should be back from injuries. This rivalry has its roots in the old Southwest Conference and is being played as an SEC game for the first time.

Pick: Texas 37-21.

No. 4 Penn State (minus 28 1/2) at Purdue
Motivation is the big intangible. The Nittany Lions have a lot to play for, and the Boilermakers appear to have cashed in. Penn State RB Nick Singleton's status is unclear. He left last week's game against Washington early because of injury.

Pick: Penn State 49-6.

No. 6 Tennessee (plus 9 1/2) at No. 11 Georgia
Bulldogs have dominated this series lately and have the nation's longest home winning streak at 28 games. Volunteers get back QB Nico Iamaleava, who was knocked out of last week's game against Mississippi State. CFP and SEC title ramifications for this one are big.

Pick: Georgia 27-21.

Kansas (plus 3) at No. 7 BYU
BYU is starting to look like a team of destiny with all its close wins. The Jayhawks are playing much better recently, and QB Jalon Daniels and KU career rushing leader Devin Neal are rolling.

Pick: Kansas 28-27.

Virginia (plus 22 1/2) at No. 8 Notre Dame
Notre Dame has given up no more than 14 points in four straight games, and its Riley Leonard-led offense has been revved up lately. Cavaliers have bowl hopes but another upset after beating Pittsburgh will be a challenge.

Pick: Notre Dame 31-10.

No. 13 Boise State (minus 13 1/2) at San Jose State
Another 200-yard rushing game by Ashton Jeanty was the talk coming out of Boise State's 28-21 victory over three-win Nevada and overshadowed how close the game was. Broncos could use some style points to buoy their playoff hopes.

Pick: Boise State 42-24.

Colorado's head coach Deion Sanders walks along the sidelines during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Texas Tech, Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in Lubbock, Texas. (AP Photo/Annie Rice)

Boston College (plus 16 1/2) at No. 14 SMU
No team has made a more impressive debut in a power conference than the Mustangs, who control their destiny in the ACC. Added incentive: BC beat SMU in the Fenway Bowl last December. BC is benching QB Thomas Castellanos in favor of Grayson James.

Pick: SMU 36-17.

New Mexico State at No. 15 Texas A&M (minus 39 1/2)
Aggies will play their first game without RB Le'Veon Moss, who's out for the season with a leg injury. It won't matter this week. It might next.

Pick: Texas A&M 52-10.

No. 17 Clemson (minus 10) at Pittsburgh
Even if Clemson wins out, it will need help to make the ACC championship game if Miami and SMU also run the table. That said, it can't afford to slip up against a Panthers team that is trending downward.

Pick: Clemson 33-21.

Utah (plus 10) at No. 18 Colorado
The Utes haven't been able to get much going on offense, but they remain one of the best defensive teams in the nation. This won't be easy for Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.

Pick: Colorado 24-17.

No. 19 Washington State (minus 12 1/2) at New Mexico
Cougars are eighth nationally in scoring and John Mateer is the only FBS quarterback with 20-plus rushing touchdowns and 10-plus passing TDs.

Pick: Washington State 45-27.

Arizona State (plus 9) at No. 20 Kansas State
ASU's Cam Skattebo was held out of last week's win over UCF with a shoulder injury, though he tried to talk coach Kenny Dillingham into letting him suit up in the second half. The versatile running back is questionable this week.

Pick: Kansas State 31-26.

No. 21 LSU (minus 4 1/2) at Florida
It might not be the worst thing for LSU to play this game on the road. The fans aren't happy with Brian Kelly after his Tigers laid an egg against Alabama. Florida QB DJ Lagway (hamstring) is day-to-day.

Pick: LSU 33-24.

No. 22 Louisville (minus 19 1/2) at Stanford
Louisville has won nine straight games when holding the opponent under 30 points. Stanford has gone 12 straight games against FBS opponents without cracking 30.

Pick: Louisville 40-20.

No. 24 Missouri at No. 23 South Carolina (minus 12 1/2)
Contrary to what Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz says about his team being in the playoff hunt, the stakes for this game are bowl position and the Mayor's Cup — the trophy that goes to the winner between schools whose campuses are in cities named Columbia.

Pick: South Carolina 28-14.

No. 25 Tulane (minus 6 1/2) at Navy
A win would be Green Wave's 15th in 16 road games, their AAC record-tying 17th straight in conference play and put them in the league championship game on Dec. 6.

Pick: Tulane 34-27.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 15-4; Against spread — 8-11.

Season: Straight-up — 166-43; Against spread — 106-102.

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