JD Vance is leaving the Senate for the vice presidency. That's set off a scramble for his Ohio seat

[November 22, 2024]  By JULIE CARR SMYTH

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — JD Vance's election as vice president has opened up one of Ohio's U.S. Senate seats for the third time in as many years, setting off a scramble for the appointment among the state's ruling Republicans.

GOP Gov. Mike DeWine is tasked with filling the vacancy, giving the pragmatic center-right politician a hand in setting his party's course in the state potentially for years to come. His decision will be made in the afterglow of sweeping wins by Republicans in November under the leadership of Donald Trump, but a poor choice could also help Democrats reclaim a place in Ohio’s Senate delegation when the seat comes up for reelection in less than two years.

“Look, being a United States senator is a big deal,” the governor told reporters in the days after the election. “It’s a big deal for the state, and we need to get it right.”

DeWine has a long list to choose from — particularly given the number of GOP candidates who competed unsuccessfully in Senate primaries in 2022 and 2024. Those under consideration who previously lost crowded Republican primaries are former Ohio Republican Chair Jane Timken; two-term Secretary of State Frank LaRose; and state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns baseball's Cleveland Guardians. Two-term Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague and Republican attorney and strategist Mehek Cooke, a frequent guest on Fox News, are also in the mix.

One other prospective appointee — a 2024 presidential contender, Cincinnati pharmaceutical entrepreneur and Vance insider Vivek Ramaswamy — pulled out of contention after accepting a position in the new Trump administration.

While Vance's departure also offers DeWine an opportunity to alleviate a bottleneck at the top of Ohio Republicans' political pecking order, where Lt. Gov. Jon Husted and Attorney General Dave Yost are preparing to face off for governor in 2026, that appears unlikely. Husted is well into building his campaign organization, and Yost has said he would decline the appointment if offered. DeWine — a 77-year-old former U.S. senator term-limited in 2026 — also has said he would not appoint himself.

Meanwhile, ambitions for the seat among Republican members of Ohio’s congressional delegation — which includes U.S. Reps. Jim Jordan, Mike Carey, David Joyce and Warren Davidson — are being tempered by the slim House majority their party scored in November. House vacancies necessarily take months to fill under Ohio’s election protocols, likely a consideration for DeWine as Trump prepares to push early policy priorities through Congress.

Under state law, whoever gets the appointment will serve from the date of Vance's resignation, which he hasn't announced, until Dec. 15, 2026. A special election for the last two years of his six-year term would be held in November 2026.

That special election could provide a comeback opportunity for Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was unseated earlier this month by Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno. Though he wasn't specific, Brown told Politico last week: “I’m going to stay in this arena. I’m not going away.” Former U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democratic Senate nominee who lost to Vance in 2022, could make another run. Allison Russo, the Democratic leader of the Ohio House, also has been mentioned as a 2026 Senate contender.

DeWine has made clear that he wants the Republican he chooses to be well positioned to defeat the Democrats in 2026. Their strengths as a statewide candidate and fundraiser are particularly important because Ohio's statewide elections also take place that year — and every seat is open. A strong incumbent senator at the top of that ticket could be valuable to returning Republicans to the offices of governor, attorney general, treasurer, auditor and secretary of state.

Vice President-elect JD Vance speaks on his mobile phone as he arrives for private meetings at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)

Stamina also could be a factor. Timken ran for Senate most recently in 2022, LaRose ran this year, and Dolan ran both times. A win in 2026 would only give the victor a two-year reprieve before having to face Ohio voters again in 2028.
 
 “This is not for the faint-hearted,” DeWine said.
 
 Dolan, who along with Timken is a millionaire, is rare among Republicans competing for the Vance appointment in not having ever won Trump's backing.
 
 In both 2022 and 2024, Dolan ran in Republicans' moderate lane, declining to align with Trump and disavowing his false claims that voter fraud lost him the 2020 election. Those stances won him DeWine's endorsement in last year's Senate primary, which could be a good sign for the term-limited Ohio Senate Finance chairman.
 
 The president-elect backed Vance in 2022 and Moreno this year — lifting both to victory. Moreno won a three-way Republican primary against Dolan and LaRose, while Vance topped a field of seven, before both went on to defeat Democratic opponents in now reliably red Ohio.
 
 In the state Legislature, Dolan opposed Ohio's now-blocked ban on abortions once fetal cardiac activity is detected and an unsuccessful effort to override then-Gov. John Kasich's veto. Both LaRose and Sprague, then a state senator and representative, respectively, supported both the bill and the override effort.
 
 Timken, a Trump loyalist, has never held public office, but as a Senate candidate she described herself as “a powerful ally for the pro-life movement” and supported overturning Roe v. Wade.
 
 Former U.S. Sen. Rob Portman backed Timken in the 2022 Senate primary, calling the Harvard-educated attorney and wife of former TimkenSteel CEO Tim Timken a smart, hard-working conservative.
 
 Some believe DeWine's penchant for elevating women could give her or Cooke an edge in the competition. Both his chief of staff and communications director are women and more than half of his Cabinet is female.
 
 Though Trump endorsed Vance over Timken for Senate in 2022, he had earlier hand-selected her to lead the Ohio Republican Party after his first election in 2016, and he has since supported her election as RNC National Committeewoman for Ohio.
 
 While Trump also passed over LaRose for a Senate endorsement this year, he had backed both him and Sprague in bids for statewide office — and both have endorsed him back.
 
 Both have twice won statewide races, though LaRose's high profile as Ohio's elections chief keeps him in the headlines more than Sprague, and he would be the first Green Beret to serve in Congress. At the same time, the absence of controversy that has marked Sprague's tenure at the state treasury could make him less likely than LaRose to draw a primary challenger.
 
 DeWine says he wants his appointee to be focused on both state and national issues and willing to work hard and “get things done.” He also hinted that the person’s politics can’t be too extreme.
 
 “It also has to be someone who can win a primary, it has to be someone who can win a general election, and then two years later do all that again," he said.

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