On Football: It's early enough for coaches on the hot seat to cool criticism with a few wins

 

[October 04, 2024]  By ROB MAADDI

On Football analyzes the biggest topics in the NFL from week to week. For more On Football analysis, head here.

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Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl with a backup quarterback and turned a perennial loser into a playoff winner in his first season.

Now, he’s the most likely NFL coach to get fired, according to oddsmakers.

Mike McCarthy also has a Super Bowl ring and has won 12 games each of the past three seasons.

He has the second-highest odds to lose his job.

Brian Daboll was AP Coach of the Year in 2022. Zac Taylor won an AFC title in 2021. Nick Sirianni won an NFC championship two years ago and has a .655 career winning percentage.

They’re also on the hot seat right now just one month into the season. That can change quickly.

But in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, past success doesn’t matter. Coaches have to win now to keep their jobs. And, for some, winning isn’t enough. They have to compete for a Super Bowl or hoist a Vince Lombardi trophy.

Pederson, who led the Eagles to the franchise’s only Super Bowl victory over the Patriots with Nick Foles outplaying Tom Brady following the 2017 season, lost his job in Philadelphia just three years later. He inherited a mess left by Urban Meyer when Jacksonville hired him in 2022 and quickly took the Jaguars from worst to first in the AFC South. They even won a playoff game after falling behind 27-0 against the Chargers and pushed the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the divisional round.
 

But the Jaguars fell apart after an 8-3 start last year and finished 9-8 as Trevor Lawrence battled injuries down the stretch. They entered this season with high expectations — owner Shad Khan told players and coaches that this was the best team ever assembled in Jacksonville — but are the only winless team in the league at 0-4.

“Nobody wants to be where we are,” said Pederson, who dealt with questions about his job security this week. “We feel like we should be further along. I feel right now we’re a better football team on paper than what’s on the field. We have to find a way to tap into that and get the most out of it.”

The Jaguars aren’t that far away. They’ve blown two leads in the fourth quarter and could be 3-1 if a few plays worked out their way. Still, close doesn’t cut it in the NFL.

Pederson needs to start stacking wins.

The Jaguars are 2 1/2-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Then they hit the road for consecutive games in London, their home away from home.

Pederson’s teams have played their best when they were counted out. The 2017 Eagles lost MVP candidate Carson Wentz and several other key starters and still ended up with a championship parade. In 2019, the Eagles were decimated by injuries and surrounded Wentz with practice squad players heading into four must-win games in December. They went 4-0 and secured a division title.

And in Jacksonville, the Jaguars started 2-6 and were 4-8 in Pederson’s first year before winning five in a row.

“You’re going to go through some setbacks in this league,” Pederson said. “You’re going to come on some hard times. That’s just part of this game. I’ve been there before. I’ve done that before. We’ve always battled back.”

McCarthy is 14 years removed from leading the Green Bay Packers to a Super Bowl win over the Steelers. He’s in his fifth year with Dallas and has won 12 games each of the past three seasons.

Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson speaks during a news conference after an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Houston. The Texans won 24-20. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

But the Cowboys only won one playoff game and McCarthy is in the final year of his contract. Dallas is off to a 2-2 start and has injury issues. They won’t have star pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and wide receiver Brandin Cooks for a prime-time matchup at Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

The schedule doesn’t get any easier after the Steelers (3-1). The Cowboys host Detroit (3-1), have a bye, and then visit San Francisco (2-2) and Atlanta (2-2), host Philadelphia (2-2) and Houston (3-1) and visit Washington (3-1).

Jerry Jones has been a patient owner but the Cowboys haven’t reached an NFC championship since the last time they won the Super Bowl following the 1995 season.

Daboll led the Giants to a 9-7-1 record and a road playoff win in his first season in New York two years ago. But the Giants are 7-14 since and are off to a 1-3 start.

Daboll built some equity with a quick turnaround, taking a team that had five straight losing seasons to the playoffs. He also helped Daniel Jones become a $40 million quarterback. But the Giants have regressed and they’ve got a tough road ahead. The next five opponents are the Seahawks (3-1) on the road; the Bengals (1-3) and Eagles (2-2) at home; the Steelers on the road; the Commanders (3-1) at home.

Taylor and the Bengals got off to another poor start, going 0-3. They’ve been 0-2 in five of his six seasons but have usually rebounded. Taylor has guided the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance and an AFC championship. With Joe Burrow healthy, they have high expectations. Taylor is signed through 2026 and it’s unlikely Cincinnati’s frugal ownership would fire him, even if the team doesn’t get back on the winning track.

That’s not the case in Philadelphia.

Sirianni has taken the Eagles to the playoffs in each of his three seasons and they fell just short of beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago.

But things have unraveled after a 10-1 start last year. Sirianni’s team lost six of seven, including a playoff rout. They went back to the site of that debacle last Sunday and played terrible, losing 33-16 to Tampa Bay.

In fickle Philly, fans and media already turned on Sirianni last year and have been calling for his ouster. He was unfairly criticized by many after his introductory news conference in 2021 before he helped Jalen Hurts become an MVP contender and won an NFC title.

There were reports that management considered Bill Belichick last offseason before sticking with Sirianni. They told him to hire two new coordinators and take more of a CEO-type approach.

The Eagles are on a much-needed bye and were one defensive stop from being 3-1. They didn’t have their top two wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson last week.

The schedule is favorable when they return with the next four games against teams currently with losing records - vs. Browns, at Giants, at Bengals, vs. Jaguars.

The bar is high for Sirianni. Anything less than a Super Bowl is unacceptable. That makes it difficult to succeed, especially in a city like Philadelphia.

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