Ted Cruz and Colin Allred wage another big US Senate fight in Texas

[October 12, 2024]  By SEAN MURPHY and JUAN A. LOZANO

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — Attack ads on every TV break. Campaign money pouring in. And on a sunny Saturday, a crowd stretching out the door for a campaign rally at Tulip's, a popular Fort Worth nightclub — this time for Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker trying to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.

Texas is having one of those Octobers again.

With Democrats defending twice as many Senate seats as Republicans, Allred's bid could be their best chance to flip a seat next month and preserve their thin Senate majority. Cruz is imploring Republican supporters to take the challenge seriously, six years after his narrow victory over Beto O’Rourke revealed fault lines for Republicans after decades of dominance in Texas.

But Allred, who would become Texas’ first Black senator, is doing things his own way. Out for more than the moral victories Texas Democrats have settled for since 1994 — the last time they won a statewide election — Allred has run to the center and away from O’Rourke’s barnstorming and break-the-rules blueprint. The different look has frustrated some Democrats, but amid signs of a competitive race with less than a month to go, Allred is sticking to the script.

“Beto didn’t win, but he was successful,” said Ryan Armstrong, 21, who was registering voters outside Tulip’s on a clipboard still adorned with a “Beto for Texas” sticker. “I have a lot of hope that (Allred) will win, but I honestly don’t know if he’s done enough.”

Abortion rights and a Cancun trip

Allred, a three-term congressman from Dallas, is by nature a far different candidate than O’Rourke, an electrifying orator who was quick to hop up on a table to fire up a crowd and road-tripped across all 254 counties. Allred describes himself as someone who “keeps a cool head” and presents himself as a bipartisan problem-solver. To win with that low-key approach, he'll need enthusiasm generated by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket even as he sets himself apart from her in a state former President Donald Trump is expected to win handily.

“Colin has to outperform Harris, so that’s a little more delicate for him than it was for us,” said David Wysong, a top O'Rourke adviser during his 2018 run against Cruz.

Allred boosts his moderate credentials by touting endorsements from prominent Republicans, including former U.S. Reps. Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney.

Other factors also could work in Allred's favor. Most notably, there's the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to strip away constitutional protections for abortion, a ruling that paved the way for Texas to outlaw nearly all abortions. That has been a winning issue for Democrats ever since, even in red states like Kentucky and Kansas.

Allred has featured abortion rights in his campaign, highlighting the personal story of Kate Cox, a Texas woman forced to flee the state to get an abortion after doctors determined her fetus had a fatal condition for which there are no exceptions under Texas law.

He has also not let up on Cruz's family vacation to Mexico during a deadly winter storm that crippled the state's power grid and is likely to remind voters again when the candidates debate on Oct. 15.

Cruz goes on the offensive

Cruz, meanwhile, has transformed from selling himself as an unapologetic partisan who showed little interest in governing when he arrived in Washington to a get-things-done Republican holding the line against Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats. He remains just as combative, attacking Allred as a “radical leftist” and linking the congressman to immigration problems and transgender rights.

“Let me tell you, Chuck Schumer and the communists have set their targets on Tarrant County,” Cruz told a packed house of supporters at Outpost 36, a barbecue restaurant in the Fort Worth suburb of Keller.

“They can’t have it,” he said, prompting cheers from people waving Cruz signs that read “Keep Texas Texas.”

Tarrant County, which includes Fort Worth and the fast-growing suburbs surrounding it, is the kind of place Allred needs to win big in. Races here have been close in recent cycles, with O’Rourke topping Cruz by less than 1 percentage point in 2018 and President Joe Biden winning the county by a similar margin four years ago.

“Six years ago it was a real battle, and this year it’s a real battle,” Cruz said. “It’s not complicated. If you are a hardcore partisan Democrat, after Donald Trump there’s nobody in the country you want to beat more than me.”

And while O'Rourke's Senate campaign in 2018 may have provided some kind of statewide roadmap for Democrats, he lost in his attempt to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott two years ago by more than 10 percentage points.

Campaign spending tops $120M in Texas

The amount of money being spent by both sides hints at the race's national significance.

According to AdImpact, which tracks spending on advertising, the $120 million both parties are spending on the Texas U.S. Senate race is set to exceed the roughly $40 million either paid for or reserved in the Florida Senate race, another top target for Democrats. But it pales in comparison with races in Montana and Ohio, where total spending exceeds $700 million on races in which Democrats are defending seats in red-leaning states.

Part of the heavy spending in Texas is attributable to its size, with 20 separate television markets, including two of the largest and most expensive in the country in Dallas and Houston.

“I think part of it also reflects the fact that Allred has been very successful raising money, and he’s been spending quite a bit of that on TV advertising,” said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor. “National Democrats have not yet demonstrated the same level of enthusiasm and optimism as the Allred campaign. Part of that may be that they’re still trying to figure out the difficult calculus of combining defense, which they’re far more focused on, and offense."

Allred: From NFL to Congress

Allred’s resume seems perfect for the Lone Star State. A star high school athlete from Dallas, he played linebacker and was captain of the football team at Baylor University in Waco. After his NFL career, he worked as a civil rights attorney.

He also has knocked off a high-profile Republican, having defeated Rep. Pete Sessions after he'd spent more than two decades in Congress in 2018. That campaign drew considerable energy from O'Rourke's bid to unseat Cruz, who beat the former El Paso congressman by less than 3 percentage points.

Still, running a successful statewide campaign comes with a higher degree of difficulty, and Allred's approach has left some Democrats scratching their heads. In Laredo, for example, a fast-growing county along the U.S.-Mexican border, some Democrats wonder where he's been.

“He’s done absolutely nothing, nothing to appeal to our voters,” said Sylvia Bruni, chair of the Webb County Democratic Party. “As far as he’s concerned, apparently we’re not worth the time.”

Allred defends his strategy, saying the political landscape has shifted.

“I’m a different candidate and this is a very different year,” he said. “We have different issues that have happened since 2018.”

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Lozano reported from Houston. Leah Askarinam of the Decision Desk contributed from Washington.

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