Together they've been in office more than 70 years. Now their races could help swing House control

[October 19, 2024]  By KEVIN FREKING

WASHINGTON (AP) — One is the longest-serving woman in congressional history. The other is dean of the Republican delegation from California and the chairman of a subcommittee responsible for Pentagon spending. Together, they have more than seven decades of experience serving in Congress.

And both are in what could be the fight of their political lives.

The list of competitive House races in next month's election is filled with freshmen and two-term representatives who are hoping to survive for another term so they can build their credentials and gain a measure of seniority for plum committee assignments.

Reps. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Ken Calvert, R-Calif., are the opposite of that.

Kaptur was first sworn into the House in 1983. President Ronald Reagan was halfway through his first term. Calvert assumed office in 1993, the year Bill Clinton became president.

The two have often sailed to victory in past congressional races, but have seen their districts redrawn after the last decennial census to become more competitive. Both overcome that change in the 2022 midterm elections. The narrowness of those wins, however, has both parties pouring millions of dollars into the two races, whose outcomes will help determine which party controls the House next year.

A loss by Kaptur could be a sign of Republican gains in Rust Belt communities. Meanwhile, a loss by Calvert could spell trouble for Republicans in California, where House Democrats look to retake the majority by heavily focusing on a state they already dominate. About a fifth of this year's most competitive races are in California.

Kaptur and Calvert have both declined debate invitations from local media outlets, while their challengers accepted.

KAPTUR'S CHALLENGE

Kaptur represents Ohio's 9th Congressional District, which is centered on Toledo. Her mother served on the organizing committee of a union at a spark plug factory in Toledo and Kaptur has maintained close ties with labor unions throughout her career.

She strongly opposed the 1990s trade deal with Canada and Mexico that was ratified under Clinton, an agreement that Republican Donald Trump would make a focus of his successful run for the presidency in 2016.

“She's always had strong union support. That's been key to winning all the different versions of Ohio 9,” said Sam Nelson, an associate professor of political science and public administration at the University of Toledo.

But the Ohio Legislature under Republican control redrew the district's boundaries to include more rural communities. It went from a comfortable Democratic district to a district that sided with Trump by about 3 percentage points. It wasn't the first time state lawmakers used redistricting to make it harder for her, packing Kaptur into a 2012 primary with fellow Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich, where she prevailed.

Kaptur is running against Republican nominee Derek Merrin, a member of the Ohio House of Representatives. He is a staunch conservative who lost a bid to become the House speaker last year when 22 House Republicans joined with 32 Democrats in the chamber to back a GOP rival for the post.

“He's coming from a much stronger position and much more able to get national money to support his campaign, support from people like Speaker of the House Mike Johnson," Nelson said in comparing Merrin to previous Kaptur opponents.

Merrin's campaign has raised about $1.3 million and had about $431,000 in cash on hand at the end of September. Kaptur raised about $4.2 million and had about $1.7 million in cash on hand, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Outside groups could reduce Kaptur's financial advantage. Republican groups plan to spend about $2.3 million on campaign ads in coming weeks, most of that coming from a super PAC called the Congressional Leader Fund. Democratic groups are planning to spend about $2 million. That’s according to the media tracking company AdImpact.

Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin, left, shakes hand with committee chairman Ken Calvert, R-Calif., during a House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Defense budget hearing on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, April 17, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell, File)

CALVERT'S CHALLENGE

Calvert represents California's 41st Congressional District. He's cruised to reelection some cycles, but has also won some close races. His opponent is Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor whose cases included some of the people who attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

It's a rematch of the 2022 race, which saw Calvert win by about 11,000 votes. Midterm elections often benefit candidates from the party not in control of the White House. Democrats are looking for a presidential election to boost their turnout in a district that is about equally divided between Republicans and Democrats.

Calvert has raised about $7.2 million this election cycle and had about $3.6 million in cash on hand at the end of September, FEC records show. Rollins has raised about $10.7 million this cycle and had about $3.9 million in cash on hand at the end of September. It's unusual for a challenger to outraise an incumbent, particularly one as established as Calvert.

Outside groups are also making their presence felt in the expensive Los Angeles-area ad market. Democratic groups and the Rollins campaign have reserved about $6.9 million in ad buys as of Thursday, according to AdImpact. Republican groups and the Calvert campaign had reserved about $5.8 million in advertising time.

In a rare campaign visit to California on Saturday, Republican nominee Donald Trump spoke near the district, telling the crowd “everybody needs to get out and vote for Ken.” Calvert also spoke at the rally and appealed to voters concerned about the cost of living and crime.

Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at California State University-Long Beach, said the addition of Palm Springs, with its large LGBTQ population, to Calvert's district has changed the political dynamic dramatically. He's anticipating a tight contest, just like in 2022.

“Can Calvert bring his old district, those people that he knows, up against this army of Palm Springs people?” Lesenyie said. “I think it comes down to mobilization. Maybe that last run for Rollins gave him a foothold on organizing so that it could push him over the line.”

CAMPAIGN THEMES

In the California race, Rollins has billed himself in one ad as a prosecutor who took on international criminal gangs to “secure our border and stop the flow of fentanyl.” He also casts himself as an outsider looking to “stop corruption in both parties” by supporting legislation that would impose term limits and a ban on stock trading" by lawmakers.

Calvert has appealed to voters' concerns about high taxes and the price of gas and groceries with an ad saying: “Democrats made California unaffordable. Extreme liberal Will Rollins will make it worse.” He's also attacking Rollins' work as a prosecutor, casting it in ads as too lenient.

In the Ohio race, several ads from Democratic groups focus on Merrin's opposition to abortion rights. A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ad accuses Merrin of not focusing on lowering costs and creating jobs, saying: “Derek Merrin doesn't get it. He's too obsessed with banning abortion.”

Merrin has emphasized his support for Trump's polices on immigration, including calling for building more border wall. “The border is wide open with drugs and gangs ruining our community right here in Northwest Ohio, so I'm making a change,” says a voter in one Merrin ad, who emphasized he was brought up as a Democrat but would be voting for the Republican.

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