Russia and Iran may fuel violent post-election protests in the US,
intelligence officials warn
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[October 23, 2024]
By DAVID KLEPPER
WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia and Iran may try to encourage violent protests
in the U.S. after next month's election, senior intelligence officials
warned Tuesday in a declassified memo, citing two recent examples of
foreign intelligence agencies seeking to sow discord ahead of the vote.
The memo, released Tuesday by the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence, said both countries could support violent protests either
by covertly organizing events themselves or by encouraging participation
in those planned by domestic groups. The aim, the officials wrote, would
be to increase division, cast doubt on election results and complicate
the transfer of presidential power.
In January, Russian military intelligence tried to recruit an American
to organize protests in the U.S., according to a declassified national
intelligence memo released publicly Tuesday. The American was “probably
unwitting” and did not know he was in contact with Russian agents, the
memo said.
The U.S. first accused the Iranian government of covertly supporting
protests against American support for Israel during the war in Gaza.
Individuals linked to Iran offered to cover the cost of travel to
protests this year in Washington, the memo said.
The risk that one of America's adversaries could encourage political
violence after the election is greater this year, officials said,
because officials in both nations now have a better understanding of the
complicated process the U.S. uses to certify the vote. The Jan. 6, 2021,
attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters also highlighted just how
easily false and misleading claims about election results can trigger
deadly real-world action.
The period between Election Day and the inauguration of the new
president poses special risks as foreign adversaries and domestic
extremists could seek to disrupt election certification by exploiting
misleading claims or innocent irregularities. Concerns about safety
already have prompted election workers in some communities to install
bulletproof glass and panic buttons because of the risk of
election-related incidents.
Fears of political violence have grown amid concerns about widening
polarization and growing distrust, a trend America's adversaries have
tried to accelerate by using online disinformation and propaganda.
Besides hoping to shape the outcome of the election, officials say
Russia and Iran — as well as China — want to undermine American unity by
spreading false and misleading claims about elections, voting and
hot-button issues like immigration, the economy or the federal response
to recent hurricanes.
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For Russia, which aims to erode support for Ukraine, that means
favoring former President Donald Trump, who has praised Russian
President Vladimir Putin and criticized the NATO alliance. Iran,
meanwhile, has sought to hurt Trump's campaign through
disinformation and by hacking into its campaign emails.
Trump's administration ended a nuclear deal with Iran, reimposed
sanctions and ordered the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
an act that prompted Iran’s leaders to vow revenge.
Russia will likely try to foment protests in the U.S. regardless of
who wins the White House, according to an official with the Office
of the Director of National Intelligence, who briefed reporters
Tuesday on the condition of anonymity under rules set out by the
office of the director. Officials said they expect Russia's response
will be more aggressive, however, if Harris defeats Trump.
China also has spread disinformation seemingly designed to mislead
and confuse Americans, but intelligence officials say they have no
indication that Beijing will seek to encourage violent protests.
While China has sought to meddle in down-ballot races for Congress
or state and local office, U.S. intelligence officials and private
analysts agree that Beijing has expressed no meaningful preference
in the presidential race.
Groups looking to meddle in the election also could use the threat
of violence at polling places to keep certain groups of voters from
casting a ballot, officials have warned. Something similar happened
in 2020, when Iranian hackers allegedly posed as members of the
far-right Proud Boys organization and sent threatening emails to
Democratic voters as a vote suppression tactic.
Voting advocacy organizations and civil rights groups have responded
to concerns of election violence with public outreach initiatives
aimed at increasing resilience to disinformation and at reminding
them that Americans agree on more than the current political climate
suggests.
“In 2024, voters must know that they will decide the outcome of the
election — not a political party, extremist groups or purveyors of
disinformation,” said Maya Wiley, president and CEO of the
Leadership Conference for Civil and Human Rights, which has launched
its own efforts to fight election misinformation and the political
violence it could spur. "Democracy requires passionate persistence.”
Russia, China and Iran have all rejected claims that they seek to
meddle with the U.S. election. On Tuesday, a spokesperson for Iran's
U.N. mission pointed to past statements denying an intention to
interfere in American politics. A spokesperson for China's Embassy
in Washington told The Associated Press that U.S. officials' claims
about Chinese disinformation are “full of malicious speculations
against China.”
A message left with Russia's embassy was not immediately returned
Tuesday.
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