US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for Ukraine; delivery to take months

[September 03, 2024]  By Mike Stone, Patricia Zengerle and Gerry Doyle

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. is close to an agreement to give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles that could reach deep into Russia, but Kyiv would need to wait several months as the U.S. works through technical issues ahead of any shipment, U.S. officials said.

The inclusion of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) in a weapons package is expected to be announced this autumn, three sources said, though a final decision has not been made. The sources declined to be named because they are not authorized to discuss the topic.

Sending JASSMs to Ukraine could significantly alter the strategic landscape of the conflict by putting more of Russia in range of powerful, precision-guided munitions, an important concern of the Biden administration, the officials said.

Military analysts have suggested the introduction of JASSMs - which are stealthy and can strike further than most other missiles in Ukraine's current inventory - could push Russian staging areas and supply depots back by hundreds of miles.

This would severely complicate Russia's ability to sustain its offensive operations and potentially provide Ukraine with a strategic advantage.

Launching them from points near Ukraine's northern border with Russia could allow them to hit military installations as far away as the Russian cities of Voronezh and Bryansk. In the south, dropping them near the front lines could enable strikes on airfields or naval facilities in Crimea.

The JASSM has so far only been integrated into U.S.-designed aircraft. Ukraine will ultimately operate several dozen F-16s, each of which can carry two of the cruise missiles.

One of the U.S. officials said there were efforts to make the missile operable with non-Western fighter jets in Ukraine's inventory, which has not been reported previously. Although the official did not provide further detail on which jets in Ukraine's inventory JASSM could be used with, they operate Soviet-era MiG-29, Su-24 and Su-27 jets.

Politico reported last month the Biden administration was "open" to giving Ukraine JASSMs.

Ukraine's need for more arms, and more powerful weaponry, is growing as it continues to face intense pressure from Russian forces along its eastern front.

Older-model JASSMs, which are made by Lockheed Martin Corp, have a range of about 230 miles (370 km). The missiles, about 14 feet (4 m) long, are designed to be somewhat stealthy, making them difficult to spot on radar. They can also fly close to the ground and can be programmed to take circuitous routes that avoid air defenses.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy listens to U.S. President Joe Biden speak at a Ukraine Compact meeting, on the sidelines of the NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S. July 11, 2024. REUTERS/Yves Herman/File Photo

There is also a longer-range JASSM missile that can fly more than 500 miles. Reuters could not immediately establish which of the two types Washington was considering, but providing the shorter-range missiles would put less strain on its stockpiles.

Giving Ukraine JASSMs would also add pressure for Washington to drop restrictions on how Ukraine uses U.S. weaponry because their effects would be limited if they were not cleared for use on targets inside Russia, said a congressional staffer who works on the issue.

The U.S. has been reluctant to supply weapons that could strike targets deep inside in Russia for fear it would escalate the conflict. Kyiv's allies have been supplying weapons but with restrictions on how and when they can be used inside Russia, out of concern such strikes could prompt retaliation that draws NATO countries into the war or provokes a nuclear conflict.

Each JASSM has a large, 1,000-pound warhead, but unlike the Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles already provided to Kyiv by Britain and France, it is not explicitly designed to penetrate hardened bunkers. The newest versions cost about $1 million each.

Global Positioning System (GPS) signals and an inertial navigation system provide guidance. When it nears its target, an infrared imaging seeker can help steer it to an impact point with an accuracy of about 10 feet (3 m).

Although older models might be less resistant to electronic warfare than the current iteration of JASSM, the infrared seeker would help it find its target even amid heavy jamming, said George William Herbert of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California.

"They're pretty stealthy, but not completely designed around maximum stealth," Herbert said. "A few years ago, a bunch were fired at Syria after chemical weapons incidents, and Russian air defense systems in the country failed to shoot many down, possibly none of them.

"I would expect that carefully planned missile flight paths would let JASSM be effective almost anywhere in the war area."

(Reporting by Mike Stone and Patricia Zengerle in Washington and Gerry Doyle in Singapore; Editing by Chris Sanders, Rosalba O'Brien and Stephen Coates)

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