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Trade data on Tuesday is expected to show outbound shipments
grew 6.5% year-on-year by value, according to the median
forecast of 34 economists in a Reuters poll, down from a 7.0%
pace recorded in July.
Inbound shipments likely increased by 2% last month, marking a
steep drop from the 7.2% growth recorded in July that was bumped
up by a low base from the previous year and a rush to stockpile
chips ahead of expected U.S. tech curbs.
South Korea, a leading index for China's tech imports, saw
exports to China rise at a slower pace in August, after it
soared to a 21-month high in July.
The likely downbeat August data adds to a string of recent
economic indicators suggesting China is struggling to regain
momentum after a rocky start to the second half of the year.
Manufacturing activity shrank for the sixth consecutive month in
August, with factory gate prices falling to their worst in 14
months.
Moreover, the expected deceleration in imports highlights weak
domestic demand, as the economy is weighed down by a prolonged
housing market slump and rising job insecurities.
Analysts believe the economy could regain some ground in the
rest of the year, as fiscal spending is set to ramp up and
exports retain some resilience.
However, significant risks remain, with escalating trade
tensions and looming tariff hikes casting a shadow over growth
prospects.
Canada last month announced a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese
electric vehicles, joining the U.S. and European Union in
tightening trade measures against China.
In Asia, India's steel ministry is pushing to raise tariffs on
steel imports from countries including China, while Malaysia has
launched an anti-dumping probe into Chinese and Indonesian
plastic products.
"The peak of Chinese export momentum is likely over," Oxford
Economics said in a recent note, warning that supportive price
factors could fade as tariffs take effect.
China's August trade surplus is forecast at $82.05 billion,
according to the poll, down slightly from $84.65 billion in
July.
(Reporting by Ethan Wang and Joe Cash; Polling by Rahul Trivedi
and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai;
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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