AP Top 25 Reality Check: SEC, Big Ten grab 16 spots in poll, monopolizing rankings like never before

 

[September 16, 2024]  By RALPH D. RUSSO

The Southeastern Conference and Big Ten occupy 64% of this week's AP Top 25, with 16 ranked teams combined, the most ever by two conferences in one poll.

The third Top 25 of the regular season had a new No. 1 in Texas on Sunday, one of nine SEC teams in the poll. That's one short of the record 10 the SEC had in the first regular-season poll of 2015. For the second straight week, the SEC has six of the top seven teams.

Meanwhile, the Big Ten matched its best showing in poll history with seven teams, last done Nov. 10, 2019.

Nine of the top-10 teams are from the SEC and Big Ten. No. 9 Miami from the Atlantic Coast Conference is the lone exception.

This was inevitable with advent of superconferences.

The SEC now has 16 teams and the Big Ten 18, having added perennial powers such as Texas and Oklahoma (SEC) and Oregon and Southern California (Big Ten).

The final AP Top 25 of last season gave a glimpse of what was coming. Twelve of the top 15 teams were going to be in the SEC and Big Ten in 2024.

For those in the ACC and Big 12, combined seven teams ranked this week, this is worrisome. It is also early and as conference games crank up, those Big Ten and SEC teams will begin knocking each other off and probably push a few out of the rankings.

But using the Top 25 as playoff projector, the 12-team field would currently have six SEC teams, three Big Ten and one each from the ACC, Big 12 and Mid-American Conference.

Reality Check is not thrilled with this type of monopoly and is hoping it doesn't portend what's coming. But it very well might.

No. 1 Texas (3-0)
Next: vs. Louisiana-Monroe, Saturday.

Reality check: Welcome to the Arch Manning era. Kinda. No reason to rush QB Quinn Ewers (abdomen) back from injury with another layup set on the schedule and Mississippi State (losers to Toledo) after that. Not to mention the most talented backup QB in the country.

Ranked: The 'Horns are a worthy No. 1.

No. 2 Georgia (3-0)
Next: at No. 4 Alabama, Saturday 28.

Reality check: We have seen the Bulldogs muddle through some early season games that didn't turn out to mean much later in the season. This was closer than those and felt as if Georgia was in some real danger of losing a regular-season game for the first time since 2020. Red flag? We'll find out more in two weeks.

Ranked: Bulldogs could still be No. 1, but coach Kirby Smart is probably happy they're not.

No. 3 Ohio State (3-0)
Next: vs. Marshall, Saturday.

Reality check: This three-game Group of Five nonconference schedule, with an off week, is probably not helping the Buckeyes do much but stay healthy.

Ranked: This is fine.

No. 4 Alabama (3-0)
Next: vs. No. 2 Georgia, Sept. 28.

Reality check: QB Jalen Milroe is developing nicely in Kalen DeBoer's offense, with at least two touchdown passes and two touchdown runs in each game. Early Heisman Trophy front-runner.

Ranked: Could be No. 3. Could be No. 1.

No. 5 Mississippi (3-0)
Next: vs. Georgia Southern, Saturday.

Reality check: Wake Forest doesn't want any more to do with the Rebels, paying $1 million to cancel next season's scheduled back half of the home-and-home in Oxford.

Ranked: Little high.

No. 6 Tennessee (3-0)
Next: at No. 15 Oklahoma, Saturday.

Reality check: The Volunteers are passing the eye test in a big way. Yes, it's just Kent State but that might have been the most-lopsided game matching FBS teams we'll see this season.

Ranked: Too low.

No. 7 Missouri (3-0)
Next: vs. Vanderbilt, Saturday.

Reality check: The Tigers' defense faced a real offense for the first time this season against BC and shut down a pretty good running game. Next step is to be challenged by a quarterback who can sling it.

Ranked: Too high.

No. 8 Oregon (3-0)
Next: at UCLA, Sept. 28.

Reality check: The Ducks seemed to have found an interior offensive line combination that works and the cleaned up mechanics in the middle made them just about unstoppable against Oregon State.

Ranked: Touch high.

No. 9 Miami (3-0)
Next: at South Florida, Saturday.

Reality check: The Hurricanes are the other team passing the eye test along with Tennessee. Common-opponent results can be deceiving, but USF could give us a gauge on how Miami stacks against Alabama.

Ranked: Too low.

No. 10 Penn State (3-0)
Next: vs. Kent State, Saturday.

Reality check: This next MAC test really shouldn't be as hard as the Bowling Green game.

Ranked: Just right.

No. 11 Southern California (2-0)
Next: at No. 18 Michigan, Saturday.

Reality check: In recent years, USC would be a get-right game for a struggling offense. How the Trojans fare against a Michigan team with serious quarterback issues is worth watching.

Ranked: Little high.

An Oregon cheerleader waves a flag following an Oregon touchdown against Oregon State during the second half of an NCAA football game, Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024, in Corvallis, Ore. (AP Photo/Amanda Loman)

No. 12 Utah (3-0)
Next: at No. 14 Oklahoma State, Saturday.

Reality check: Freshman QB Isaac Wilson (three touchdown passes), Zach's little brother, was more than solid in his first start against Utah State, but the Utes need Cam Rising healthy with the Big 12 season starting.

Ranked: Touch high.

No. 13 Kansas State (3-0)
Next: at BYU, Saturday.

Reality check: The Wildcats unleashed QB Avery Johnson as a runner against Arizona with 17 carries for 110 yards. He still needs to be more reliable as a passer.

Ranked: Little low.

No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0)
Next: vs. No. 12 Utah, Saturday.

Reality check: All-America RB Ollie Gordon II is averaging only 3.48 yards per carry behind one of the most experienced lines in the country. The strategy against the Cowboys seems to be: Make QB Alan Bowman beat you.

Ranked: This is fine.

No. 15 Oklahoma (3-0)
Next: vs. No. 6 Tennessee, Saturday.

Reality check: The Sooners are down to 116th in the country in yards per play at 4.86. This is no way to enter SEC play.

Ranked: Too high.

No. 16 LSU (2-1)
Next: vs. UCLA, Saturday.

Reality check: There are still a lot of issues on this defense, but the Tigers might have found a solution for the running game in freshman Caden Daniels (11 carries for 98 yards and two TDs against South Carolina).

Ranked: Feels high, but who else?

No. 17 Notre Dame (2-1)
Next: vs. Miami (Ohio), Saturday.

Reality check: That was almost too easy for the Irish against Purdue. How much of that was real improvement for Notre Dame's offense and how much was the Boilermakers' incompetence?

Ranked: Again, feels too high but who else?

No. 18 Michigan (2-1)
Next: vs. No. 11 USC, Saturday.

Reality check: QB Davis Warren had one of the strangest stat lines, going 11 for 14 with three INTs against Arkansas State. Coach Sherrone Moore said it was not good enough, but does he trust Alex Orji to do better with Big Ten play starting?

Ranked: Too high.

No. 19 Louisville (2-0)
Next: vs. Georgia Tech, Saturday.

Reality check: No team has done less to earn its ranking, but that doesn't mean the Cardinals aren't good. Time to get some answers.

Ranked: Too high.

No. 20 Iowa State (2-0)
Next: vs. Arkansas State, Saturday.

Reality check: Case could be made the Cyclones have the best receiver duo in the Big 12 in Jayden Higgins (13 for 143 and two TDs) and Jaylin Noel (13 for 268 and two TDs).

Ranked: Little low.

No. 21 Clemson (1-1)
Next: vs. NC State, Saturday.

Reality check: The more you watch the rest of the ACC, the more you realize Clemson should be fine.

Ranked: About right.

No. 22 Nebraska (3-0)
Next: vs. No. 24 Illinois, Friday.

Reality check: The Cornhuskers have taken care of business against teams that aren't very good. That's progress. They have not won a matchup of ranked teams since 2011, but regularly beating the likes of Illinois in the Big Ten is the next step toward pulling the program out of the mire.

Ranked: Little low.

No. 23 Northern Illinois (2-0)
Next: vs. Buffalo, Saturday.

Reality check: The last time multiple teams from Illinois were ranked at the same time was Oct. 6, 2013, when the Huskies were No. 23 and Northwestern was ranked 19th.

Ranked: Too low, considering how Notre Dame looked.

No. 24 Illinois (3-0)
Next: at No. 22 Nebraska, Friday.

Reality check: The Illini are plus-8 in turnover margin, which is a good way to get to 3-0.

Ranked: Sure.

No. 25 Texas A&M (2-1)
Next: vs. Bowling Green, Saturday.

Reality check: First-year coach Mike Elko might have a decision to make between redshirt freshman QB Marcel Reed and Conner Weigman — when Weigman is healthy.

Ranked: Probably not.

___

Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP

All contents © copyright 2024 Associated Press. All rights reserved