On the heels of a dry winter, firefighters around the US brace for
wildfire risks
[April 01, 2025]
By TY ONEIL and SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN
PRESCOTT, Ariz. (AP) — From the southwestern U.S. to Minnesota, Iowa and
even parts of New Jersey, it seemed that winter never materialized.
Many communities marked their driest winters on record, snowpack was
nearly nonexistent in some spots, and vegetation remains tinder dry --
all ingredients for elevated wildfire risks.
More than 1,000 firefighters and fire managers recently participated in
an annual wildfire academy in Arizona, where training covered everything
from air operations to cutting back brush with chain saws and building
fire lines. Academy officials say there's consensus that crews will be
busy as forecasts call for more warm and dry weather, particularly for
the Southwest.
The lack of moisture and warm temperatures can combine to increase the
rate of spread and intensity of fire, said Roy Hall, the prescribed fire
officer for the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management. He
says it's been dry in his state for months.
“We would be remiss to not acknowledge that changes how we might see
fire behavior come out of the blocks at the beginning and through fire
season,” he said.
How dry has it been?
Experts with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
reported in early March that total winter precipitation in the U.S. was
just shy of 6 inches (15.24 centimeters) — or nearly an inch (2.54
centimeters) below average. The period of December through the end of
February — what forecasters consider the meteorological winter — ranked
the third driest on record.
Flagstaff, nestled in the mountains south of the Grand Canyon, has long
been on the list of quick escapes for desert dwellers looking to build
snowmen or go sledding. The northern Arizona city finished the winter
period with a 50-inch (1.27 meter) snowfall deficit. A major storm hit
the area in mid-March, forcing the closure of Interstate 40 and
stranding motorists for hours. It wasn't enough to erase the shortfall.
In New Mexico, there were at least 17 sites that marked either their
driest winters on record or tied previous records. Albuquerque set a new
low by logging just 0.12 inches (0.30 centimeters) of precipitation over
a three-month period.
“The tap just turned off and the drought conditions have been
proceeding,” Andrew Mangham, a senior hydrologist with the National
Weather Service in Albuquerque, said during a recent call with state and
federal drought experts.
What does that mean for wildfire conditions?
Arizona, New Mexico and parts the Midwest already have had their share
this spring of red flag warnings — when low humidity couples with windy,
warm weather to heighten wildfire risks. Those threats materialized in
mid-March in Oklahoma, where fires destroyed hundreds of homes. Crews in
New Jersey and the Carolinas also battled flames amid dry conditions.
In the West, land managers and firefighting forces are concerned that
without adequate snowpack in many mountain ranges, there's less moisture
to keep fires from ballooning into fast-moving conflagrations.
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Vehicles move South on U.S. 1 highway as smoke from a brush fire
enteres the sky near Homestead, Fla., on Friday March 21, 2025. (AP
Photo/Jaqueline Larma)
April 1 typically marks the peak of the snowpack, but forecasters
say many areas already are melting out. Strong spring winds that
deposit dust onto the snowpack help to speed up the process.
Even southern Alaska is experiencing a snow drought at lower
elevations, according to the National Integrated Drought Information
System. The Anchorage airport recorded its driest February on
record, while large areas in southwest Alaska and low elevations in
the south-central part were nearly snow-free as of March 1.
Recent storms brought some moisture to California, pushing snowpack
levels there to just shy of average. But most of the southern region
is dealing with moderate to extreme drought.
A new wildfire outlook will be released Tuesday. While California
isn't among those areas facing significant potential for wildfires
at the moment, deadly fires in January torched more urban area than
any other fire in that state since at least the mid-1980s.
How are communities dealing with the threat?
Seeing flames race through Los Angeles earlier this year prompted
municipal leaders throughout the West to host community meetings to
raise awareness, including in New Mexico's San Juan County.
The Four Corners region — where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and
Utah meet — is among those on the radar for high fire potential
given the unfavorable conditions. Firefighters in San Juan County
responded to 25 bushfires in the first 27 days of March and two more
were reported on Friday, said county spokesperson Devin Neeley.
In Arizona, the Phoenix Fire Department have warned the mayor and
city councilors about increasing risks. They have a plan for surging
department resources to help contain fires before they escalate,
particularly in areas where urban development intersects with
wildland environments.
In neighboring Scottsdale, Mayor Lisa Borowsky recently floated the
idea of creating a volunteer brigade to bolster wildfire prevention,
pointing to invasive species and overgrown vegetation within the
McDowell Sonoran Preserve that could pose risks. A fire department
crew has been clearing and trimming brush along roadways.
Christopher Reed, a fire prevention captain with the Arizona
forestry department, said some people think of wildfire as a “macro
problem” that involves vast landscapes beyond their suburban
borders. He said people should prepare on a micro level, ensuring
their own homes are defensible before it's too late.
“We always say Day 1 of firefighting is now,” Reed said.
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