The key places to watch in Tuesday's elections in Wisconsin and Florida
[April 01, 2025]
By ROBERT YOON
WASHINGTON (AP) — Elections in Florida and Wisconsin have become key
tests of President Donald Trump's political standing two months into his
second White House term.
The marquee race Tuesday is for a swing seat on the Wisconsin Supreme
Court, a technically nonpartisan election that has drawn at least $90
million in spending. Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk are backing
conservative judge Brad Schimel while progressive billionaires and
Democrats support liberal Susan Crawford.
Two Republican-friendly Florida congressional seats could give the GOP
some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. But Democrats in
both districts have far outraised their GOP counterparts, and national
Republicans have been publicly concerned in particular about the race to
replace Mike Waltz, now Trump's national security adviser.
Here are the places to watch as the vote results are reported on
election night:
Wisconsin: How big will Democrats win in Milwaukee and Madison?
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win by large
margins in the populous counties of Milwaukee and Dane (home of
Madison). But the size of that win is usually a big factor in who wins
statewide, especially in a close contest.
In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried Milwaukee
with 68% of the vote and Dane with 75% while narrowly losing statewide.
That same night, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin ran about 2
percentage points ahead of Harris in both counties and narrowly won
reelection.
In 2023, the Democratic Party-backed Supreme Court candidate Janet
Protasiewicz received 73% of the vote in Milwaukee and 82% of the vote
in Dane and went on to win statewide by an 11-percentage-point margin.
Wisconsin: How big will Republicans win in the ‘WOW’ counties?
Republicans tend to do well in the suburban Milwaukee counties of
Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha — the so-called “WOW” counties. A
strong Republican showing in these counties can help counter the
Democratic advantage in urban areas. Republican candidates have carried
all three counties in every major statewide election going back to at
least 2016.

Wisconsin: Who’s ahead in Green Bay?
Republican candidates tend to win Brown County, which is home to Green
Bay, but not by huge blowouts. Trump carried the county in all three of
his presidential campaigns with between 52% and 53% of the vote.
But since the 2016 election, there have been two Democrats who carried
Brown County and went on to win statewide: Tony Evers in his bid for
governor in 2018 and more recently Protasiewicz in her 2023 state
Supreme Court race.
A Democrat can still win statewide without winning Brown (such as
Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, Evers’ reelection in 2022 and all three of
Baldwin’s U.S. Senate runs). But if they do carry Brown, it’s probably
going to be a rough night for Republicans.
Wisconsin: What’s the situation in Sauk?
Sauk County, northwest of Madison, is a competitive area in statewide
elections that usually ends up supporting the Democratic candidate,
albeit by slim margins. It falls somewhere in the middle of Wisconsin’s
72 counties in terms of population, and the margins are usually so small
that statewide elections aren’t typically won or lost in Sauk.
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Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel, center, speaks with
supporters as former Gov. Scott Walker, left, watches on Monday,
March 31, 2025, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Scott Bauer)

Democrats or Democratic-backed candidates had a long winning streak
in Sauk, having carried the county in eight of the last 10 major
statewide elections. But the two exceptions are notable: Trump
carried Sauk in 2016 and 2024, when he won Wisconsin and the White
House.
While Sauk won’t likely place a decisive role in Tuesday’s
elections, a victory there by a Republican-backed candidate may be a
good sign for the party statewide.
Florida: Voting history favors Republicans
Democrats are encouraged by the strong fundraising performances of
their nominees to replace Waltz and former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz,
but the special elections take place in two congressional districts
that have long been safe Republican territory.
Trump received about 68% of the vote in 2024 in the Florida
Panhandle’s 1st Congressional District, slightly outperforming the
66% Gaetz received in his reelection bid. In the 6th Congressional
District on the Atlantic coast, Trump received roughly 65% of the
vote, just behind the 67% Waltz received in his final House
reelection bid.
The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for
Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past
60 years. Only Walton County went for a Democrat on one occasion
since 1960, although all four voted for Democrat-turned-independent
candidate George Wallace in 1968. Today, the part of Walton County
that falls within the 1st District is the most reliably Republican
of the four counties.
Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in
the 6th District for the last four presidential elections. The
Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for
decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a
Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and
Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where they both received
about 74% of the vote.
Florida: Where to look for signs of a possible Democratic upset
If Democrats manage to pull off upsets in either the 1st or 6th
districts, the first indications may be in their best performing
counties.
Given the Republican advantage in both districts, the Democrats'
best areas are still places where Republicans performed well. In the
1st District, Trump and Gaetz did comparatively the worst in
Escambia County, although they still received 59% and 57% of the
county vote, respectively.
In the 6th District, Democrats may do best in Volusia County, where
Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60%. Republican
presidential candidates have carried Volusia in the last four
elections, but the area used to be more friendly territory for
Democrats, who won the county for six consecutive elections from
1992 through 2008.
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