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Tourism Economics said it expects the number of people arriving
in the U.S. from abroad to decline by 9.4% this year. That’s
almost twice the 5% drop the company forecast at the end of
February.
At the beginning of the year, Tourism Economics predicted a
booming year for international travel to the U.S., with visits
up 9% from 2024.
But Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said high-profile
lockups of European tourists at the U.S. border in recent weeks
have chilled international travelers. Potential visitors have
also been angered by tariffs, Trump's stance toward Canada and
Greenland, and his heated White House exchange with Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“With each policy development, each rhetorical missive, we’re
just seeing unforced error after unforced error in the
administration,” Sacks said. “It has a direct impact on
international travel to the U.S.”
The decline will have consequences for airlines, hotels,
national parks and other sites frequented by tourists.
Tourism Economics expects travel from Canada to plummet 20% this
year, a decline that will be acutely felt in border states like
New York and Michigan but also popular tourist destinations like
California, Nevada and Florida.
The U.S. Travel Association, a trade group, has also warned
about Canadians staying away. Even a 10% reduction in travel
from Canada could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in
lost spending and 14,000 job losses, the group said in February.
Other travel-related companies have noted worrying signs. At its
annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Air Canada said bookings
to the U.S. were down 10% for the April-September period
compared to the same period a year ago.
Sacks said he now expects foreign visitors to spend $9 billion
less in the U.S. compared to 2024, when international tourism to
the country rose 9.1%.
“The irony is that the tariffs are being put in place to help
right the trade deficit, but they're harming the trade balance
by causing fewer international travelers to come and spend money
here,” Sacks said.
Sacks said international arrivals had been getting close to
returning to 2019 numbers, before the coronavirus pandemic
halted most travel. Now he thinks they won't get back to that
level until 2029.
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