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Bettors back Duke men and UConn women for national championships

[April 03, 2025] By MARK ANDERSON

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Duke shines even in a Final Four of all No. 1 seeds.

The early betting money went on the Blue Devils to win their semifinal Saturday against Houston, with the opening line at DraftKings Sportsbook quickly going from 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 points.

Bettors see a Duke team led by sensational freshman Cooper Flagg that has won 15 games in a row, all but three by double digits.

“(Bettors will) continue to play Duke,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings race and sports operations director. “Duke has been been brilliant through the ACC Tournament right into the big tournament here, and Flagg's playing great. So they'll just continue to put their money on them.”

BetMGM Sportsbook is seeing a similar surge in Blue Devils bets.

Duke by far is drawing the most money at BetMGM, taking in 40.5% of the handle to win the national championship. The next closest is Florida at 11.7%.

It's largely big bets on the Blue Devils because the total number of tickets is much closer, with Duke attracting 14.1% compared to 9.1% for the Gators. One person put $500,000 at that sportsbook on Duke at +350 to win the title.

That turned out to be a good price. Duke opened the season at +1100 at BetMGM to win the championship and now is at -110. Florida had an even more dramatic move, going from +4000 to +300.

The Gators are favored by 2 1/2 points at both sportsbooks to beat fellow Southeastern Conference member Auburn.

“The tournament has gone in the bettors’ favor with favorites consistently winning,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. "The sportsbook is cheering against a Duke-Florida final.”

South Carolina, UConn drawing action

On the women's side, bettors believe in championship coaches Dawn Staley of South Carolina and Geno Auriemma of UConn to get it done, even though the Huskies are the only No. 2 seed in either Final Four.

UConn, in fact, is attracting 30.3% of the handle and 17.3% of the ticket count to win the national championship, which would be the school's 12th but first in nine years. Paige Bueckers and the Huskies first have to get by UCLA in Friday's semifinal, but they are 8 1/2-point favorites at BetMGM and DraftKings.

The number opened at 10 1/2 points at DraftKings before it was bet down.

“Connecticut's always loaded,” Avello said. “Paige Bueckers is a special player. It will be tough to beat that team because he's an outstanding coach. He knows how to get it done. (Bettors) thought 10 1/2 points was a bit too many.”

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Duke forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts during the first half of a Sweet 16 round NCAA college basketball tournament game, Thursday, March 27, 2025, in Newark, N.J. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

South Carolina has won three national championships since 2017, including last year's title. The Gamecocks are in the Final Four for the fifth consecutive season.

They are behind only UConn at BetMGM in terms of money bet (23.9%) and number of tickets (14.8%).

South Carolina is favored by 4 1/2 points in the semifinals at both sportsbooks.

“BetMGM will be pulling for the dogs to cover and hopefully pull off an upset if not two," BetMGM sports trader Hannah Luther said. "Factoring in the futures markets, a Texas versus UCLA final is the best case scenario.”

Looking ahead
DraftKings has lines up for the potential men's championship matchups. Duke would be favored by 4 1/2 points over Florida and 5 1/2 over Auburn. The Gators would be 1 1/2-point favorites over Houston, and the Cougars would be a 1-point favorite over Auburn.

Lines weren't available on the women's side, but UConn was a -160 favorite to win it all. South Carolina was +260.

Bad times for the books
This has been a difficult March Madness for sportsbooks because casual bettors tend to put their money on favorites.

“This hasn't been our greatest tournament revenue-wise,” Avello said. “But we've still got a couple of games to go. I can tell you, the players have a lot of bullets right now, so I expect a lot of action in this Final Four.”

Bad beat
Michigan State bettors had to be cursing when the Spartans beat Mississippi 73-70 in the Sweet 16. Ole Miss' Matthew Murrell made a 3-point — off the back iron, no less — at the buzzer that allowed those betting on the Rebels to cover the 3 1/2-point spread at BetMGM.

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