China's exports jump 12.4% in March as bigger US tariff hikes loom
[April 14, 2025] By
ELAINE KURTENBACH
BANGKOK (AP) — China's exports jumped 12.4% in March from a year earlier
in a last-minute flurry of activity as companies rushed to beat
increases in U.S. tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and
analysts forecast sharp setbacks ahead.
Imports fell 4.3% to $211.3 billion in March, the customs administration
reported, far exceeded by exports worth $313.9 billion, leaving a trade
surplus of $102.6 billion.
“But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and
quarters,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report.
“We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current
levels.”
China's trade surplus surged to a record $992.2 billion in 2024 and its
exports climbed 5.4%, helping to make up for sluggish growth at home as
the country slowly recovers from a crisis in its property market and
lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
After taking office, Trump first ordered a 10% increase in tariffs on
imports from China. He later raised that to 20%. Now, China is facing
145% tariffs on most of its exports to the United States, based on the
most recent revisions in Trump’s trade policies. China has responded
with 125% tariffs on U.S. products and other measures meant to pinch the
U.S. where it hurts most, such as controls on exports of critical
minerals needed in high-tech manufacturing, such as electric vehicle
production.
China’s trade surplus with the United States was $27.6 billion in March
as its exports rose 4.5%. It logged a surplus of $76.6 billion with the
U.S. in January-March even though exports were up only 2.3% the first
two months of the year.
“Savvy U.S. importers likely saw tariff hikes coming in April onward and
frontloaded imports,” ING Economics said in a report, but that trend is
likely to fall off as importers use up their inventories while they
watch for the latest twists and turns in unpredictable U.S. trade
policy.
“As a result, it’s likely that direct trade between the U.S. and China
will crater starting in April,” it said.
The customs data showed total exports from the world’s second largest
economy rose 5.8% in the first three months of the year from a year
earlier while imports sank 7%, leaving a trade surplus of $273 billion.
Late Friday, Trump exempted most computer-related goods from the higher
China-specific tariffs, including laptops, smartphones and the
components needed to make them, though his administration says he plans
to announce those within days. Such products accounted for nearly $174
billion in U.S. imports from China last year.
[to top of second column] |
A Chinese couple shop at a Crocs store inside a shopping mall, in
Beijing, Saturday, April 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
 Still, the harsh U.S. tariffs on
Chinese products have raised questions about whether exporters might
end up diverting their goods to other overseas markets as they give
up on selling to American consumers due to the more than doubling of
import duties.
The biggest increases in exports in March were to China's Southeast
Asian neighbors, which saw the dollar value of shipments from China
jump 8% in March from a year earlier. Exports to Africa rose more
than 11% and those to India by nearly 14%.
A customs administration spokesperson, Lyu Daliang, said China was
facing a “complex and severe external situation” but that the sky
would not fall. He pointed to China’s diversified export options and
huge domestic market.
When asked about falling Chinese imports, he told reporters in
Beijing that China has been the world’s second largest importer for
16 straight years, increasing its share of global imports from about
8% to 10.5%.
“At present and in the future, China’s import growth space is huge,
and the large Chinese market is always a great opportunity for the
world,” he said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting Vietnam on Monday as part
of a regional tour that also will take him to Malaysia and Cambodia,
giving him an opportunity to firm up trade ties with other Asian
countries that also are facing potentially steep tariffs, though
last week Trump delayed enforcing them by 90 days.
China's exports to Vietnam jumped nearly 17% last month from a year
earlier, while its imports fell 2.7%.
Trade data already show some impact from the higher tariffs, with
exports of lower value-added items like shoes and clothing falling,
while shipments of computer chips, household appliances and vehicles
surged.
China's exports of rare earths fell nearly 11% in the first quarter
of the year as Beijing tightened controls on the strategically vital
materials used in electric vehicles and other high-tech products.
___
Associated Press researcher Yu Bing in Beijing contributed.
All contents © copyright 2025 Associated Press. All rights reserved |
