LDN - Business

US consumer confidence plummets to Covid-era low as trade war stokes anxiety

[April 30, 2025] By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans' confidence in the economy slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86, its lowest reading since May 2020. Nearly one-third of consumers expect hiring to slow in the coming months, nearly matching the level reached in April 2009, when the economy was mired in the Great Recession.

The figures reflect a rapidly souring mood among Americans, most of whom expect prices to rise because of the widespread tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. About half of Americans are also worried about the potential for a recession, according to a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center.

“Rattled consumers spend less than confident consumers," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in an email. “If confidence sags and consumers retrench, growth will go down.”

A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market plunged 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level in more than 13 years. The reading is well below 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.

How this gloomy mood translates into spending, hiring, and growth will become clearer in the coming days and weeks. On Wednesday, the government will report on U.S. economic growth during the first three months of the year, and economists are expecting a sharp slowdown as Americans pulled back on spending after a strong winter holiday shopping season.

And on Friday the Labor Department will release its latest report on hiring and the unemployment rate. Overall, economists expect it should still show steady job gains, though some forecast it could report sharply reduced hiring.

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Valdis Dombrovskis, left, Executive Vice President of the European Commission for Economy and Productivity, meets with Specialist Alexander Weitzman on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, April 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

The stark decline in consumer confidence also likely reflected the sharp swings in stock and bond prices that roiled financial markets earlier this month. While all age groups and most income brackets reported lower confidence, the decline was steepest among households earning more than $125,000 and among consumers 35 to 55 years old.

Though major U.S. markets rebounded over the past week, the S&P 500 is still down 6% for the year and the Dow Jones has lost 5%. The growth-heavy Nasdaq is down 10% in 2025.

The Conference Board said that mentions of tariffs in write-in responses reached an all-time high this month, with the duties on the top of consumers' minds. Trump has imposed a tariff of 10% on nearly all imports, as well as a huge 145% tariff on most goods from China. He has imposed separate import taxes on steel, aluminum, and cars.

More Americans are also now worried that the economy could tip into a recession, with the proportion of consumers expecting a downturn in the next 12 months reaching a two-year high.

Fewer consumers said they were planning to buy a home or car in the next six months. Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slowed last month in a lackluster start to the spring homebuying season as elevated mortgage rates and rising prices discouraged those looking.

And Americans also said they would spend less on services. The proportion of Americans planning an overseas vacation in the next six months fell to 16.4%, down from 24.1% in December. And the proportion of consumers planning to spend more on dining out plummeted by nearly the most on record in April, the Conference Board said.

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