China's export orders dip in April as Trump's tariffs begin to bite
[April 30, 2025] By
ELAINE KURTENBACH
Higher tariffs on U.S. imports of products from China are taking a toll
on the world's second-largest economy as export orders sink, according
to monthly surveys of Chinese factory managers released Wednesday.
The official survey by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
shows export orders slowed sharply in April, with Beijing and Washington
in a standoff after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered combined tariffs
of up to 145% on Chinese goods.
China has imposed duties of up to 125% on U.S. products, with some
exemptions. It has also ordered other retaliation, such as tighter
restrictions on exports of some strategically important minerals used
for high-tech products such as electric vehicles.
American businesses are cancelling orders from China and postponing
expansion plans as they watch to see what comes.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month
low of 49.0 from 50.5 in March. That’s on a scale where 50 marks the
break between expansion and contraction. A private survey by the
financial information group Caixin fell to 50.4 from 51.2.
“The sharp drop in the PMIs likely overstates the impact of tariffs due
to negative sentiment effects, but it still suggests that China’s
economy is coming under pressure as external demand cools,” Zichun Huang
of Capital Economics said in a report.
Large manufacturers are likely to be hit harder than smaller ones that
are more labor intensive, since China still enjoys a cost advantage for
such products, economists at ANZ Research said.
“China’s manufacturing cost for light industries may be one-fifth that
of the U.S., which is unlikely to change,” they said in a report.
Earlier this week, senior Chinese economic officials convened a news
conference where they showcased Beijing's support for the economy and
its capacity to do more to counter the impact of the tariffs.
The economy expanded at a solid 5% annual pace in 2024 and the ruling
Communist Party has set a target for growth at about that level this
year.
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Workers labor at a manufacturer of medical polymer precision
catheters, in Nantong city in east China's Jiangsu province on April
24, 2025. (Chinatopix via AP)
 But that was before Trump escalated
his trade war, piling on still higher tariffs with an aim of
compelling manufacturers to rebase production to the United States.
“Overall, in April, the expansion in supply and demand slowed, with
exports stunted and employment shrinking slightly. Manufacturers
sought to reduce stocks, logistics were delayed, and prices remained
under pressure. Market optimism weakened significantly," Wang Zhe,
wrote senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.
Business sentiment was at one of the lowest levels on record, Wang
said.
Private economists have downgraded their forecasts for the economy
this year and next. Capital Economics estimates the economy will
expand only 3.5% in 2025.
The economy grew 5.4% from a year earlier in the first quarter of
the year, as companies rushed to beat the higher tariffs. Chinese
exports surged more than 12% year-on-year in March.
Although some Chinese exports will likely be diverted to other
countries, Trump's trade war has raised the risk of recession in the
U.S. and its impact is expected to ripple across the global economy.
The International Monetary Fund said in a recent update that the
outlook for the U.S. and global economies this year and next has
significantly worsened.
It forecast the global economy will grow just 2.8% this year, down
from its estimate in January of 3.3%.
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