Trump suggests more US cities need National Guard but crime stats tell a
different story
[August 29, 2025]
By ED WHITE and CHRISTOPHER L. KELLER
President Donald Trump has threatened to deploy the National Guard to
Chicago, New York, Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco and Portland,
Oregon, to fight what he says is runaway crime. Yet data shows most
violent crime in those places and around the country has declined in
recent years.
Homicides through the first six months of 2025 were down significantly
compared to the same period in 2024, continuing a post-pandemic trend
across the U.S.
Trump, who has already taken federal control of police in Washington,
D.C., has maligned the six Democratic-run cities that all are in states
that opposed him in 2024. But he hasn't threatened sending in the Guard
to any major cities in Republican-leaning states.
John Roman, a data expert who directs the Center on Public Safety &
Justice at the University of Chicago, acknowledged violence in some
urban neighborhoods has persisted for generations. But he said there's
no U.S. city where there “is really a crisis.”
“We’re at a remarkable moment in crime in the United States,” he said.
Public sees things differently
Trump might be tapping somewhat into public perception when he describes
cities such as Chicago as a “killing field.” The vast majority of
Americans, 81%, see crime as a “major problem” in large cities,
according to a survey released this week by The AP-NORC Center for
Public Affairs Research, though there is much less support, 32%, for
federal control of police.
The public was reminded this week that shootings remain a frequent event
in the U.S. In Minneapolis, which has seen homicides and most other
crime fall, a shooter killed two children attending a Catholic school
Mass Wednesday and wounded 17 a day after three people died in separate
shootings elsewhere in the city.
Still, over time, the picture is encouraging, according to numbers from
AH Datalytics, which tracks crimes across the country using law
enforcement data for its Real-Time Crime Index.
Aggravated assaults — which includes nonfatal shootings — through June
were down in Chicago, Portland, Seattle, Baltimore and San Francisco and
were virtually unchanged in New York. Reports of rape were up in New
York and Chicago during the first half of the year, but down in the
other cities, including a 51% drop in San Francisco.
The crime index also showed that property crimes, such as theft,
burglary and motor vehicle theft, were mostly down in those six cities
in the first six months of 2025. Theft crimes rose from 2020 to 2024 in
four of the six cities analyzed by AP.
Cities defend safety strategies
Trump exaggerated and misstated facts about crime in Washington when his
administration took over the D.C. police department and flooded the
capital with federal agents and the National Guard. He referred to
Baltimore, 40 miles (64 kilometers) away, as a “hellhole” during a
Cabinet meeting and has said he might “send in the ‘troops.’”
"I’m not walking in Baltimore right now," Trump said.
Yet Baltimore has shown drops in major crime, according to the crime
index. Homicides and rapes were down 25% or more in the first half of
2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Homicides were down for three
consecutive years through 2024 and were 35% lower when compared to 2018.
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National Guard troops patrol the grounds of the Washington Monument
with the Capitol seen in the distance as part of President Donald
Trump's order to impose federal law enforcement in the nation's
capital, in Washington, Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott
Applewhite)
“Deploying the National Guard for municipal policing purposes is not
sustainable, scalable, constitutional, or respectful,” Maryland Gov.
Wes Moore, a Democrat, said on social media site X.
Baltimore has found ways to reduce violence by offering mentorship,
social services and job opportunities to young people likely to
commit crimes, said Michael Scott, director of the Center for
Problem-Oriented Policing at Arizona State University and a former
police chief in Florida.
“That approach has resulted in more significant reductions in
shootings and homicides than any other strategy I've seen in the
over 50 years I've been in the field,” Scott said.
Tales of different cities
Trump doesn't seem to disparage big cities in states that favor
Republicans. Charlotte, North Carolina, had 105 homicides in 2024
compared to 88 in 2023. The rate of vehicle thefts per 100,000
people more than doubled there from 2020 through 2024. Indianapolis
had a homicide rate of 19 per every 100,000 residents in 2024 — more
than four times higher than New York's.
Amy Holt, 48, who recently moved to Charlotte from a gated community
in northern Virginia, said someone tried to steal her husband’s car
in their new city. She also found bullets on the ground while
walking with dogs.
There's no discussion about sending the National Guard to Charlotte.
Holt believes most cities should be trusted to be in charge of
public safety, adding that troops in uniforms would be “alarming”
and “scary.”
Democratic elected officials in cities targeted by Trump have
publicly rejected suggestions that their residents need the National
Guard. "Crime is at its lowest point in decades, visitors are coming
back, and San Francisco is on the rise,” Mayor Daniel Lurie said.
Experts question just how effective the National Guard would be and
where troops would be deployed in cities.
“It's going to make residents think: Things must be much worse than
I realize to have the military in my neighborhood. What’s going on?”
Scott said. “It's more likely to generate undue fear and
apprehension than it will lead to perceptions of reassurance and
safety.”
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White reported from Detroit and Keller reported from Albuquerque,
New Mexico. AP video journalist Erik Verduzco in Charlotte, North
Carolina, contributed to this report.
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