Sen. Ernst of Iowa is expected to announce next month that she won't run
for reelection in 2026
[August 30, 2025]
By SEUNG MIN KIM, HANNAH FINGERHUT and JOEY CAPPELLETTI
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iraq War combat veteran
and Iowa’s first woman elected to Congress, is expected to announce next
month she will not seek reelection, leaving another vacancy in an Iowa
seat that could have ripple effects down the ballot as Democrats look to
the state for pickup opportunities.
As Senate Republicans work to maintain their majority in the chamber,
Ernst is joining a wave of her peers making headaches for the party.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina turned down a reelection bid after
clashing with President Donald Trump.
Ernst plans to announce in September that she will opt out of the race
for a third term, according to four people familiar with her plans who
spoke Friday on the condition of anonymity to preview the announcement.
Ernst, a former Army National Guard member and a retired lieutenant
colonel, was first elected to an open Senate seat in 2014. She served
for several years in the No. 4 spot in the Senate GOP leadership and was
considered a vice presidential contender for Trump’s first White House
run.
Her decision comes after Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, the state’s first
female governor, said she would not run for reelection. It prompted the
state’s many Republican elected officials to consider the open
opportunity to run for higher office, a process that may begin again
with Ernst’s departure.
Democrats look to mount an Iowa comeback
Democrats have been looking for an opportunity to mount a political
comeback in the once-competitive state, an uphill battle even in the
potentially favorable midterm year. Ernst drew backlash after a retort
about Medicaid cuts at a town hall. As Ernst explained that the
legislation protects Medicaid for those who need it most, someone in the
crowd yelled that people will die without coverage, and Ernst responded:
“People are not ... well, we all are going to die.”
The crowded primary field of Democratic candidates for the Senate have
capitalized on that moment and Ernst’s Senate votes for early messaging.
They’ll have to pivot once other Republicans enter the fray.
The election will be without an incumbent for the first time since 2014,
when Ernst was elected in the first open Senate race in decades. Chuck
Grassley, Iowa’s senior U.S. senator, has held his seat for 45 years.
Ernst emerged among a field of lesser-known candidates seeking the
Republican nomination in 2014, rising to national recognition with
advertisements that spoke of her experience slinging guns and castrating
hogs. She won reelection in 2020 by more than 6 percentage points,
coming in with just shy of 52% of voters.
Among Trump supporters, Ernst made waves earlier this year after
signaling a hesitance to support his pick for the secretary of the
Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth. Hegseth has said in the past that
he did not think women should serve in combat roles, and he was accused
of a sexual assault that he denies.
But Ernst, who is herself a survivor of sexual assault and has worked to
improve how the military handles claims of misconduct, made clear she
wanted to hear him respond to those points. It provoked a pressure
campaign that underscored Trump’s power on Capitol Hill and included
threats of a bruising primary.
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Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, speaks during an Iowa GOP event at the
Cedar Rapids Country Club in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Aug. 6, 2024. (Nick
Rohlman/The Gazette via AP, File)
It wasn’t the first time Ernst went toe-to-toe with Trump
supporters. She also faced condemnation for her 2022 vote to protect
same-sex marriage.
Still, Ernst would have benefited from nearly 200,000 more active
voters registered as Republicans than Democrats, a significant shift
from even a few years ago. Ernst announced a campaign manager in
June, an October date for her annual fundraiser and had raised just
shy of $1.8 million in the first half of the year.
Likely candidates for the seat
Third-term Rep. Ashley Hinson from the Cedar Rapids area in eastern
Iowa, is widely viewed as likely to enter the race. Two of Iowa’s
four congressional seats already have been among the more
competitive in the country over the past several elections.
Should Hinson enter the Senate race, that would make her district,
where she won with 57% of the vote in 2024, more competitive, Iowa
Republican strategist Luke Martz said.
“We’re going into what could be a tumultuous midterm, with two seats
already highly targeted. This would be a third, depending on who we
nominate,” Martz said.
A spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the
official campaign arm of Senate Republicans, declined to comment.
Likewise, messages left for Ernst aides were not immediately
returned.
However, strategists close to Senate Republican leadership said they
were encouraged by Hinson's interest in running, in light of her
victories in a politically mixed northeast Iowa district and
fundraising ability.
Messages left for Hinson spokespeople were not immediately returned.
Several Democrats are seeking the party’s nomination for the seat,
including state Sen. Zach Wahls; state Rep. Josh Turek; Jackie
Norris, chair of the Des Moines School Board; and Nathan Sage, a
former chamber of commerce president.
Two Republicans — former state Sen. Jim Carlin and veteran Joshua
Smith — had already entered the primary to challenge Ernst.
Trending Republican
Iowa, which had been a perennial swing state, has trended Republican
over more than a decade, with Republicans winning the governorship
since 2010 and both U.S. Senate seats since 2014.
After Democrat Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012,
Trump has gone on to carry it three consecutive times, and by his
widest margin, 13.2 percentage points, last year.
Ernst’s plans were first reported by CBS News.
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