Trump's ceasefire plan for the Israel-Hamas war faces pitfalls as it
moves into a new phase
[December 09, 2025]
By JOSEF FEDERMAN
DOHA, Qatar (AP) — With the remains of one hostage still in Gaza, the
first phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in the war between Israel and
Hamas is nearly complete, after a two-month process plagued by delays
and finger-pointing.
Now, the key players — including Israel, the Palestinian militant Hamas
group, the United States and a diverse list of international parties —
are to move to a far more complicated second phase that could reshape
the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan — which was approved by the
U.N. Security Council — lays out an ambitious vision for ending Hamas’
rule of Gaza. If successful, it would see the rebuilding of a
demilitarized Gaza under international supervision, normalized relations
between Israel and the Arab world and a possible pathway to Palestinian
independence.
But if the deal stalls, Gaza could be trapped in an unstable limbo for
years to come, with Hamas remaining in control of parts of the
territory, Israel’s army enforcing an open-ended occupation and its
residents stuck homeless, unemployed, unable to travel abroad and
dependent on international aid to stay alive.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the prime minister of Qatar
and a key mediator, said over the weekend that the ceasefire is at a
critical point, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set
to travel to the White House this month to discuss the next steps.
Here is a closer look at the next stages of the ceasefire and the
potential pitfalls.
Troops for Gaza
Trumps plan calls for the formation of an international force — known as
International Stabilization Force — to maintain security and train
Palestinian police to one day to take over. That force has not yet been
formed, and a deployment date has not been announced.
Some countries — including Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan and
Indonesia — have expressed willingness to participate. But no firm
decisions have been made.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss
diplomatic talks, says partner countries are holding meetings this month
to finalize operations. He predicted “boots on the ground” in early
2026.
But there are pitfalls. The force’s command structure and authorities
remain unknown.
Hamas says it will oppose any attempts by the force to disarm it, and
contributing nations may not to want to risk clashes to take away its
weapons. Israel, meanwhile, is hesitant to trust an international body
with its security needs.
Board of Peace
Trump has said he will head an international board to supervise a
committee of Palestinian technocrats running Gaza’s day-to-day affairs.
The board will oversee reconstruction and an open-ended reform process
by the Palestinian Authority, with the goal of one day allowing the
internationally recognized authority to govern Gaza.
So far, Trump is the only board member officially named, though former
British Prime Minister Tony Blair's name has been floated as a
possibility. Another U.S. official, also speaking on condition of
anonymity to discuss closed-door deliberations, says members of the
board will be announced in the coming weeks.
The key challenge will be forming a board that can work with Israel,
Hamas, the mediators and international aid agencies.
Reconstruction
Trump’s plan calls for an economic development plan to “rebuild and
energize Gaza,” which suffered widespread destruction during the war and
where most of the territory’s 2 million people are displaced and
unemployed.
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Tents sheltering displaced Palestinians stand amid the destruction
left by the Israeli air and ground offensive in Gaza City Dec. 5,
2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana, File)
Still, no such plan has been announced. Egypt is expected to host a
conference this month for donor nations to pledge reconstruction
aid.
The United Nations has estimated the cost of rebuilding Gaza would
amount to $70 billion. Raising that money will be difficult. Even
more difficult would be finding a plan acceptable to the many
governments involved, along with their private sector partners.
Disarmament
The ceasefire deal calls for Hamas to surrender all of its weapons
under the supervision of international monitors. Militants who
disarm will be granted amnesty and the option to leave Gaza.
However, Hamas, whose ideology is based on armed resistance against
Israel, says it will not disarm until Israel ends its occupation of
Palestinian territories.
Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told The Associated Press that
the group is open to “ freezing or storing” its weapons while a
political process takes place, perhaps over many years. It is
unclear whether that is sufficient for Israel.
Failure to disarm Hamas could lead to renewed fighting with Israel,
clashes with international troops and block progress on the rest of
the peace plan.
A Palestinian government
The Palestinians are to form a “technocratic, apolitical” committee
to run daily affairs in Gaza, under the supervision of the Board of
Peace.
The committee’s members have not been announced and Israel's
opposition to having any Palestinians connected to Hamas or the
Palestinian Authority on it could make choosing them more difficult.
It is also not clear if the committee will give Palestinians any
real voice in the government or will exist only to implement
decisions by the Board of Peace. If the committee is seen as just a
façade, it risks not gaining public support and some figures may
balk at joining it.
Israeli withdrawals
Under the ceasefire, Israel is to withdraw from all of Gaza, with
the exception of a small buffer zone along the border. At the
moment, Israel retains control of just over half of Gaza.
The plan says further withdrawals will be based upon “standards,
milestones and timeframes linked to demilitarization” to be
negotiated by Israel, the U.S., the international force and other
“guarantors.”
There are no firm timelines for further withdrawals, and Israel may
refuse to pull back further. Its military chief, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir,
called the so-called Yellow Line that divides the Israeli-held part
of Gaza from the rest a “new border” that would serve as a “forward
defensive line for our communities.”
Palestinian Authority
The plan calls for a reform of the Palestinian Authority, which runs
the West Bank, and create conditions for a “credible pathway” to
Palestinian statehood.
Palestinian officials have met with Blair and U.S. officials, and
have said they have begun reforms in key areas such as corruption,
the education system and payments to families of prisoners convicted
in attacks on Israelis.
Israel rejects the creation of a Palestinian state, opposes any role
for the authority in postwar Gaza and may oppose attempts to bring
it in even if some reforms are made. Without a pathway to statehood,
any Palestinian support for the new system could crumble. The plan
also offers no clear benchmarks or timelines for the reform process.
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