Another blue wave? Meet the Democrat trying to make it happen and the
Republican trying to stop her
[December 15, 2025]
By BILL BARROW
ATLANTA (AP) — Even though Republican Brian Jack is only a first-term
congressman, he has become a regular in the Oval Office these days. As
the top recruiter for his party's House campaign team, the Georgia
native is often reviewing polling and biographies of potential
candidates with President Donald Trump.
Lauren Underwood, an Illinois congresswoman who does similar work for
Democrats, has no such West Wing invitation. She is at the other end of
Pennsylvania Avenue working the phones to identify and counsel
candidates she hopes can erase Republicans’ slim House majority in
November's midterm elections.
Although they have little in common, both lawmakers were forged by the
lessons of 2018, when Democrats flipped dozens of Republican-held seats
to turn the rest of Trump's first term into a political crucible.
Underwood won her race that year, and Jack became responsible for
dealing with the fallout when he became White House political director a
few months later.
Underwood wants a repeat in 2026, and Jack is trying to stand in her
way.
For Republicans, that means going all-in on Trump and his “Make American
Great Again” agenda, gambling that durable enthusiasm from his base will
overcome broader dissatisfaction with his leadership.
“You’re seeing a lot of people very inspired by President Trump,” Jack
said about his party's House candidates. “They’re excited to serve in
this body alongside him and the White House. That’s been a tool and a
motivating factor for so many people who want to run.”
Underwood said she is looking for candidates with community involvement
and public service beyond Washington politics. A registered nurse, she
was a health care advocate before she ran in 2018, joining a cadre of
Democratic newcomers that included military veterans, educators,
activists and business owners.
“It's about having ordinary Americans step up" in a way that “draws a
sharp contrast with the actions of these MAGA extremists,” she said.
Trump’s involvement is more direct than in 2018
It's routine for a president's party to lose ground in Congress during
the first midterms after winning the White House. Trump, however, is in
the rare position to test that historical trend with a second,
nonconsecutive presidency.
Neither party has released its list of favored candidates in targeted
seats. But Jack said Oval Office discussions with Trump focus on who can
align with the White House in a way that can win.
Jack highlighted former Maine Gov. Paul LePage as an example. LePage is
running in a GOP-leaning district where Democrats face the challenge of
replacing Rep. Jared Golden, another member of the party’s 2018 class
who recently announced he would not seek reelection.
Trump’s involvement contrasts with 2017, when he was not as tied to
House leadership, including then-Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., on details
of the midterm campaign as he is now. Jack, who got his start with Trump
by managing delegate outreach before the 2016 convention, was White
House deputy political director during that span. He was promoted to
political director after the 2018 losses.
Jack continued advising the president, especially on his endorsements,
between Trump's 2021 departure for the White House and Jack's own
congressional campaign in 2024. He described Trump as intimately
involved in recruitment decisions and open to advice on his endorsements
since those 2018 defeats.
Trump loyalty will not always be easy to measure, especially in
first-time candidates.
But Jack said Republicans have quality options. He pointed to
Albuquerque, New Mexico, where Republicans could have a competitive
primary that includes Jose Orozco, a former Drug Enforcement
Administration contractor, and Greg Cunningham, a former Marine and
police officer.
“They both have very inspirational stories,” Jack said.
Orozco has asked voters to “give President Trump an ally in Congress.”
Cunningham did not focus on Trump in his campaign launch.
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This combination photo shows Brian Jack, left, speaking at a
campaign rally, March 9, 2024, in Rome, Ga. and Lauren Underwood
speaking with reporters, Aug. 9, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mike
Stewart, Nathan Howard)
Democrats describe a district-by-district approach
Underwood said Democrats are replicating a district-by-district approach
of 2018. Recruiting in the Trump era, she said, is more often about
talking with prospective candidates who raised their hands to run than
about coaxing them into politics.
The notable numbers of women and combat veterans in her first-term
class, Underwood said, was not a top-down strategy but the result of
candidates who saw Trump and Republicans as threats to functional
government and democracy.
Underwood, who at age 32 became the youngest Black woman ever to serve
in Congress after her 2018 election, recalled that Republicans' efforts
to repeal the Affordable Care Act spurred her to run because of her
training as a nurse. She shares those experiences with recruits,
sharpening how they can connect their ideas and background to the job of
a congressperson.
Underwood said she also regularly fields questions about serving in an
era of political violence and about the day-to-day balance of being a
candidate or congressperson, especially from recruits who have children.
National security is again a draw for Democrat. Former Marine JoAnna
Mendoza is running in a largely rural southern Arizona seat and former
Rep. Elaine Luria, another Underwood classmate and former naval officer,
is running again in Virginia after losing her seat in 2022. Luria was
among the lead House investigators of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Underwood said there are clear parallels to 2018, when successful
congressional candidates included Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy
helicopter pilot who is now New Jersey governor-elect; Jason Crow, a
former Army Ranger who is one of her recruiting co-chairs; and Virginia
Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA case officer.
Democrats also noted the need to find candidates who reflect a
district's cultural sensibilities, meaning a candidate who can withstand
Republican accusations that national Democrats are out of touch with
many voters.
For instance, in a South Texas district, the top potential Democratic
challenger is Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. The five-time Latin Grammy
nominee has criticized progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New
York for using the term “Latinx” rather than “Latino” or “Latina.”
Trump’s gerrymandering fight causes uncertainty
Mid-decade gerrymandering, mostly in Republican-led states at Trump’s
behest, leaves the state of the 435 House districts in flux. Even with
the changes, Democrats identify more than three dozen Republican-held
seats they believe will be competitive. Republicans counter with about
two dozen Democratic-held seats they think can flip.
In the Southwest, Democrats are targeting three Republican seats in
Arizona. The GOP is aiming at three Democratic seats in Nevada. From the
Midwest across to the Philadelphia suburbs, Democrats want to flip two
Iowa seats, two in Wisconsin three in Michigan, three in Ohio and four
in Pennsylvania. Republicans are targeting four Democratic seats in New
York.
Nearly all Democratic targets were within a 15-percentage point margin
in 2024, many of them much closer than that. Democratic candidates in
2025 special elections typically managed double-digit gains compared
with Trump’s margins in 2024, including a recent special House election
in Tennessee, when Democrats came within 9 points in a district Trump
won by 22 points.
“It’s the same kind of shifts that we saw in 2017 before the 2018 wins,”
said Meredith Kelly, a top official at the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee during Trump’s first presidency. “So, it becomes a
mix of that national environment and finding the right candidates who
fit a district and can take advantage.”
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