Moody's economic forecast for Illinois shows troubling signs ahead

[February 19, 2025]  By Greg Bishop | The Center Square

(The Center Square) – A recent economic forecast for Illinois from Moody’s Analytics shows some trouble ahead.

The “State of Illinois Economic Forecast, February 2025,” compiled for the Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability by Moody’s Analytics and Economic and Consumer Credit Analytics says the state’s economy strengthened moderately in 2024, but the “pace of job and income growth has slowed further behind the below-average midwestern pace.”

“Illinois will underperform the region and the U.S. in 2025, with gross state product, employment, and income increasing less than elsewhere,” the report’s summary said. “Growth in the labor force will diminish.”

Illinois will be a step behind the Midwest average and a few steps behind the nation in job and income growth over the long term, the report said.

“Below average population trends and deep-rooted fiscal problems such as mounting pension obligations and a shrinking tax base represent the biggest hurdles to stronger economic performance,” the summary said. “Persistent out-migration will weigh on the strength of employment and income gains.”

The state’s unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 4.1% in the region and the nation.

“On the bright side, the rise in Illinois’ jobless rate can be partially attributed to sustained growth in the labor force, which is approaching its pre-pandemic size,” the report said.

Regional economic indicators were also provided.

“Chicago’s economy is trailing its large peers and the U.S. overall,” the report said. “The Urbana-Champaign economy is Illinois’ top performer, though some data suggest the labor market is not as strong as it looks.”

In Springfield, state government “is driving progress” in the region’s economy.

“Bloomington’s expansion has slowed,” the report said. “Rockford’s economy is showing signs of life.”

Lake County’s economy is “sluggish,” analysts said. “Peoria’s economy has weakened during the last year.”

Noting various employment situations in the regions of the Quad Cities, Decatur and Danville, the report notes key manufacturing industries and downstream business services have “shed jobs.”

“John Deere has laid off hundreds of factory workers in the Quad Cities as demand for new farm machinery has fallen amid low crop prices and high borrowing costs,” the report said. “The permanent closure of Danville’s Quaker Oats factory has resulted in hundreds of lost jobs.”

In the near term, Moody’s outlook for Illinois shows the state will “underperform the U.S. and the slow-growing Midwest.” In the long term, Moody’s reports some positive factors.

“The state will continue to diversify into service-providing industries while nurturing its more efficient and smaller traditional manufacturing core,” the report said. “Chicago will develop as the transportation and distribution center for the Midwest and will increasingly cultivate its tech industry.”

And while Moody’s notes “Illinois has what it needs to remain a top business center,” business costs in the state “are higher than they are nationally and have trended up for the past decade.”

“Overall costs are lower than in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin but higher than in Indiana, Iowa, Missouri and Ohio,” the report said.

In the long term, the report also notes negative factors.

“Weak demographic trends and deep-rooted fiscal problems, such as mounting pension obligations and a shrinking tax base, represent the biggest hurdles to the longer-term outlook,” the report said. “The state’s outlook is tarnished primarily by its past budget woes, weak population trends, and high tax burden relative to other states. Overall business costs are only slightly higher than in the U.S., but firms in Illinois tend to pay more in taxes and labor is on the expensive side.”

As for the state’s demographics, the report notes Illinois gained population in the recent U.S. Census annual estimates, something driven by international migration into the state.

“Despite the recent rapid uptick in immigration, we expect immigration to fall off in the next few years,” the report said. “Fewer international arrivals combined with persistently weak natural population growth will cause the state’s population to resume its decline. Illinois’ population loss during the next few years will be one of the worst among the states, and the shrinking of the working-age population will remain more severe than in other parts of the country.”

All contents © copyright 2025 Associated Press. All rights reserved