Pro Picks: Texans, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Bucs and Vikings will advance to the next round

 

[January 09, 2025]  By ROB MAADDI

The NFL’s wild-card weekend features divisional rivals facing off, two NFC rematches from Week 1 and the Harbaugh brothers coaching on the same day.

Jim Harbaugh leads the Chargers against the Texans in the season’s first playoff game on Saturday afternoon. Then it’s John Harbaugh’s Ravens against Mike Tomlin’s Steelers in the nightcap.

Sean Payton has the Broncos in the playoffs for the first time in nine years. But they’ve got a tough matchup on the road against the Bills on Sunday afternoon.

Next the Packers visit the Eagles in a rematch from the season opener in Brazil. Philadelphia won that one, 34-29.

The Commanders take on the Buccaneers in another rematch from the first weekend of the season to wrap up the tripleheader on Sunday. Tampa Bay opened with a 37-20 win against Washington.

Sean McVay and the Rams host Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings on Monday night in the last wild-card game. O’Connell served as offensive coordinator on McVay’s staff in 2020-21 before going to Minnesota.

The spreads for the three NFC games are under 4 1/2 points, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. The AFC has the two largest spreads.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston (10-7)
Line: Chargers minus 3

Justin Herbert’s only playoff game ended with the Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in the wild-card round two years ago. He’s got a different cast around him featuring rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey and a run game led by J.K. Dobbins.

The Texans are limping into the playoffs after losing two in a row to the Chiefs and Ravens before the backups ended the season with a win. C.J. Stroud and the offense are missing top receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell so Houston will rely more on Joe Mixon running the ball.

Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans led the Texans to a playoff win last year and edge rusher Will Anderson’s return should boost the defense.

The Chargers are an NFL-best 12-5 against the spread, including 7-2 on the road. Houston is 7-8-2 ATS, including 1-5 as an underdog and 0-2 straight up as a home underdog.

All the odds favor Los Angeles.

UPSET SPECIAL: TEXANS: 23-21

Pittsburgh (10-7) at Baltimore (12-5)
Line: Ravens minus 9 1/2

Russell Wilson and the Steelers are skidding into the playoffs after losing four straight games to end the season. Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game in eight years and this will be a major challenge as the Steelers are the biggest underdog of the weekend going against Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens.

But Pittsburgh has been a tough opponent for Jackson throughout this rivalry. He beat the Steelers for just the second time in six starts in Week 16.

T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Patrick Queen and the rest of Pittsburgh’s stout defense have to find a way to slow down Jackson and Henry.

The Ravens were the first team in NFL history to pass for at least 4,000 yards and run for at least 3,000. But Baltimore might be without Pro Bowl wideout Zay Flowers because of a knee injury.

The Steelers need a big game from Wilson throwing to George Pickens and Najee Harris running to stay in the game.

RAVENS: 27-20

Denver (10-7) at Buffalo (13-4)
Line: Bills minus 9

Josh Allen has been on a mission since the start of the season. Buffalo’s franchise quarterback is determined to erase playoff failures and he’s stepped up without a star-studded supporting cast. James Cook ran for 1,009 yards and wide receiver Khalil Shakir had a breakout season. They’ll go against a fierce defense featuring cornerback Patrick Surtain II, defensive tackle Zach Allen and edge rusher Nik Bonitto.

Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix had an impressive season, but he’s got a tough task going against a defense that’s made life rough on first-year signal-callers under coach Sean McDermott. The Bills are 9-4 against rookie QBs with McDermott and have allowed just seven touchdown passes and 17 interceptions in those games.

BILLS: 26-19

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Green Bay (11-6) at Philadelphia (14-3)
Line: Eagles minus 4 1/2

Jalen Hurts hasn’t played in three weeks and Saquon Barkley and other starters rested the final game. The Eagles have to shake off the rust against one of the most formidable No. 7 seeds since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020. No. 2 seeds are 7-1 in these matchups, but the Packers were the only seventh seed to win, beating Dallas 48-32 last year.

Barkley, who ran for 2,005 yards in 16 games to lead the league’s No. 2 run offense, will be facing a strong run defense. Green Bay allowed just 99.4 yards per game on the ground.

Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs and the Packers’ offense faces the league’s No. 1 defense. The Eagles gave up the fewest total yards and second-fewest points at 17.8 per game. Green Bay’s defense is missing top cornerback Jaire Alexander.

The Packers were 2-0 against the spread this season as a road underdog. The Eagles were 11-6 ATS.

BEST BET: EAGLES: 26-20

Washington (12-5) at Tampa Bay (10-7)
Line: Buccaneers minus 3

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers aren’t satisfied just getting to the playoffs after winning a fourth straight NFC South title. Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and the rest of Tampa Bay’s high-powered offense are going to have to score a lot of points because the defense is depleted.

Todd Bowles has a track record of success against rookie quarterbacks and the Buccaneers held Jayden Daniels in check in his first NFL game. He’s come a long way since his debut and led an impressive turnaround in Washington along with coach Dan Quinn.

The Commanders are seeking their first playoff win since beating Tampa Bay in the 2006 playoffs.

The No. 6 seed Buccaneers were 3-2 ATS as a home favorite this season. The No. 3 seed Commanders were 2-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.

BUCCANEERS: 27-26

Minnesota (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Line: Vikings minus 1

Struggles inside the red zone cost Sam Darnold and the Vikings against the Lions in a showdown for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Instead of a bye, Minnesota hits the road and is a favorite in this 4-5 matchup.

Matthew Stafford led the Rams to a 30-20 victory over the Vikings on a Thursday night in Week 8. He threw four touchdown passes and benefited from the return of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp from injuries. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores should have Minnesota’s defense ready for the rematch. The Vikings are reeling from giving up 31 points against Detroit.

The Rams are 4-2 ATS as home underdogs. The Vikings are 3-2 ATS as road favorites.

VIKINGS: 25-22
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Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 7-9.

Regular season: Straight up: 192-80. Against spread: 144-124-4.

Prime-time: Straight up: 44-14. Against spread: 31-26-1.

Best Bet: Straight up: 11-7. Against spread: 10-8.

Upset Special: Straight up: 9-9. Against spread: 9-9.
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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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