Budget constraints, caucus tensions face House Speaker Welch in his third term

[January 18, 2025]  By Peter Hancock

SPRINGFIELD – When state Rep. Emanuel “Chris” Welch was sworn in for another term as speaker of the Illinois House this month, he called on his colleagues to “rise to the occasion” and confront the moment that faced them.

“We are all defined by the moments in our lives and by our responses to them,” Welch said in his inaugural address. “There are young people here today witnessing a very special moment. How we lead in that moment is so important. What we say in that moment is so important.”

In many ways, Welch’s political career has been defined by his handling of critical moments. That was especially true in January 2021, when then-Speaker Michael J. Madigan, struggling under the weight of a burgeoning corruption scandal, began losing the grip on the power he had held for most of the previous 40 years.

It was Welch, a Democrat from the western suburb of Hillside then in his fifth term, who rose from a crowded field of potential contenders to take over one of the most powerful positions in Illinois government.

In a recent statement from his office, Welch pointed to several legislative achievements that occurred during his first four years as speaker – a series of balanced budgets and increases in the state’s credit rating; increased funding for K-12 and higher education; promotion of renewable energy; and criminal justice reform measures, to name a few.

But now, as he enters his third term as speaker, Welch and the Democratic caucus he leads face several new challenges, including significant budget constraints and divisions within the caucus itself. Those divisions erupted in a closed-door caucus meeting during the recent lame duck session and spilled over into public view during contentious negotiations over a bill to regulate the hemp industry.

That caucus meeting reportedly included shouting, name-calling and accusations leveled against state agency staff members, leading to open criticisms from Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker over Welch’s handling of the situation.

During a recent interview with Capitol News Illinois, however, Welch downplayed the significance of those tensions and insisted his relationship with the governor’s office remains in good shape.

“Let me say that we had a caucus on a very divisive issue,” Welch said. “We’ve had three caucuses in three different years now on that particular issue, and it gets very emotional. And I have talked to members who, I think, crossed the line and asked them to apologize. And it’s my understanding, at least one member has reached out to a staffer and tried to apologize.”

As for the governor, Welch said, “our relationship is great.”

“I love and respect the governor. In my four years as speaker, we’ve accomplished some great policy victories,” he said. “I’ve got two more years here as speaker again, thank God, and we’re going to land more big policy victories. You know, the governor has a job to do, but I have a job to do too.”

House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch speaks during the inauguration of the 104th General Assembly on Wednesday, Jan. 8. (Capitol News Illinois photo by Andrew Adams)

One of the most challenging tasks ahead for Welch could be holding the Democratic caucus together on budget and revenue issues during a time when the state faces significant fiscal pressures.

For most of Welch’s time in the speaker’s office, Illinois has enjoyed a period of sustained revenue growth. That has enabled lawmakers to fund such popular things as increased school spending, financial aid for college and university students, and expansion of health care coverage under Medicaid.

But revenue growth has been slowing in recent months. During the 2024 regular session, lawmakers struggled to pass a revenue package needed to close a roughly $1 billion budget gap. Even with Democrats’ supermajority in the House, it took three votes on the final night of the session in May to pass a bill that included tax hikes on sportsbooks and businesses.

This year could prove even more challenging as lawmakers face a projected $3.2 billion budget shortfall. But Welch said he is confident lawmakers will work through the budget challenge.

“I’ve been speaker four years now. We balanced the budget every year I’ve been speaker, and some of those years we had very grim forecasts and we still managed to produce budgets with surpluses, make additional payments to our pension obligations and receive credit upgrades,” Welch said.

“And I do believe that we’re going to continue to pass balanced budgets that are compassionate and responsible, like we’ve done the last four years that I’ve been speaker,” he added. “You know, I’m looking forward to the next credit upgrade we receive after we do it again.”

To help meet the challenge, Welch announced the formation of a new leadership team shortly after being reelected speaker, including the appointment of a new team of lead budget negotiators.

For the past four years, Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, D-Peoria, served as the House Democrats’ lead negotiator – what lawmakers refer to as the “budgeteer.” But starting this year, Welch will rely on a team of three “co-budgeteers,” all Chicagoans: Reps. Kam Buckner, Eva-Dina Delgado, and Will Guzzardi.

Gordon-Booth will remain a part of the leadership team as an assistant majority leader. She previously held the title of speaker pro-tempore, a position that will now go to Buckner. Rep. Robyn Gabel, of Evanston, will continue to serve as majority leader.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation.