Beyoncé, Kendrick, Sabrina and more: AP predicts who will win at the 2025 Grammys

[January 28, 2025]  By MARIA SHERMAN and JONATHAN LANDRUM JR.

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Beyoncé leads the 2025 Grammys nominee pack, but Billie Eilish, Kendrick Lamar and Charli xcx are vying for their moment in the spotlight.

Beyoncé is up for 11 awards thanks to “Cowboy Carter,” tying Michael Jackson’s “Thriller” record for most nominations for a single album.” She's also the most awarded artist in Grammys' history. Is it finally her time to take home the top prize? If she wins the album of the year, she’ll become the first Black woman to do so in the 21st century.

Who else will be victorious, earning those gramophone-shaped trophies on Sunday?

The Associated Press' Maria Sherman and Jonathan Landrum Jr. break down the close races for Grammy glory.

Album of the year
“New Blue Sun,” André 3000; “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé; “Short n’ Sweet,” Sabrina Carpenter; “BRAT,” Charli xcx; “Djesse Vol. 4, “Jacob Collier; “Hit Me Hard and Soft,” Billie Eilish; “Chappell Roan The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess,” Chappell Roan; “The Tortured Poets Department,” Taylor Swift

SHERMAN: I’ve got my gloves on, let the boxing begin. The album of the year category is stacked with some of the biggest pop releases in recent history. Jacob Collier feels like a long shot; in some ways, so does André 3000, though it would be great for a completely instrumental, alt-jazz album take home the top prize. He’s won before, with Outkast, for 2004’s “Speakerboxxx/The Love Below.”

My money is on Beyoncé. She leads the nominations this year. And while “Cowboy Carter” is a masterclass in reclamation, a necessary work that exists in opposition to country music’s rigid power structures, it is not her best album. But her AOTY trophy is long overdue. (Lest we forget the “Lemonade” snub, AP’s pick for best album of the last decade.) She’s the most awarded artist in Grammy history and has never won the top prize. Let’s fix that!

LANDRUM: Hope you’ve got a good corner, because I don’t pull punches.

Sure, this category is stacked, but there’s only one who stands tall: Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter.” Her win shouldn’t be about past snubs. It’s about the fact that she delivered the best overall project. Period. Beyoncé dove into country music headfirst, shining a spotlight on Black country acts like Shaboozey, Brittney Spencer and Tiera Kennedy while redefining the genre’s possibilities.

Eilish's “Hit Me Hard and Soft” is incredible and well-deserving of a win here. But Beyoncé didn’t just make history by becoming the first Black woman to top Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart in 80 years, she owned this high risk, high reward opportunity.

If this doesn’t lead to Beyonce’s first album of the year win, then voters clearly missed the memo.

Record of the year
“Now and Then,” the Beatles; “Texas Hold ’Em,” Beyoncé; “Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter; “360,” Charli xcx; “Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish; “Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar; “Good Luck, Babe!”, Chappell Roan; “Fortnight,” Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone

SHERMAN: Beyoncé has never won in this category, but I think her big win will be for album of the year. The Beatles have also never won record of the year. But giving them the prize in 2024 would be less for the AI-assisted track, and more for the fact that we’re talking about a new Beatles song. Lamar deserves to win, but we all know the Grammys love Eilish… I think it is hers to lose.

LANDRUM: The Grammys love handing out trophies to Eilish and Lamar — 17 for him, nine for her. Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” is an infectious, breezy melody, no doubt. But “Not Like Us” should win. Why? This was a game-changing track where Lamar delivered the final knockout blow during an epic rap beef to Drake, following a string of power punches from hits like “Like That,” “Euphoria,” and “6:16 in LA.”

And who could forget when Lamar performed the song five times in a row at his Juneteenth “Pop Out” concert last summer? That was a mic drop moment for the culture.

“Not Like Us” has become a daily affirmation for many (well, maybe not Drake). It’s the kind of track that’s so impactful you almost hope Lamar performs it multiple times during his upcoming Super Bowl halftime show performance.

Will that happen? Probably not. But hey, a brotha can dream, right?

Much respect to the other nominees, but “Not Like Us” deserves to win, proving once and for all that nothing else even came close.

Song of the year (songwriter’s award)
“A Bar Song (Tipsy)"; “Birds of a Feather"; “Die with a Smile”; “Fortnight”; “Good Luck, Babe!"; “Not Like Us"; “Please Please Please"; “Texas Hold ’Em." See the full list of songwriters here.

LANDRUM: Picture this: the presenter opens the envelope and announces, “‘Not Like Us’ by Kendrick Lamar,” as the crowd erupts in cheers. They can’t resist reciting the chorus: “They not like us, they not like us, they not us!”

It’s not far-fetched to imagine this happening. Lamar’s pen was as lethal as ever on this track. Just ask Drake. With Lamar as the track’s sole songwriter, this feels like the perfect moment for him to finally snag his first win in this category.

SHERMAN: If there’s any justice in this world, you’re correct! And it is about time Lamar earns a trophy in a top four category.

Best new artist
Benson Boone; Sabrina Carpenter; Doechii; Khruangbin; RAYE; Chappell Roan; Shaboozey; Teddy Swims

SHERMAN: Last year we were agreement that Victoria Monét would win best new artist, and then she did. Will lightning strike twice? There’s no shortage of deserving talent here, but I think it will come down to Carpenter and Roan. Shaboozey is an innovator but his song eclipsed his album; Doechii’s mainstream rise to fame arrived too late in the year. Between the two pop ladies, I’d love for it to go to Roan — who feels like a breath of fresh air in music’s mainstream. However, I think it will go to Carpenter, despite the fact that she is on her sixth album.

LANDRUM: I think we’re both in agreement: This is Carpenter’s category to lose. But let’s be real. Crowning a best new artist who’s on their sixth album feels off. It’s like letting a sixth-year college football player compete against freshmen and sophomores. Sure, they’re technically eligible, but it doesn’t quite sit right. They should be competing in the pros.

Beyonce appears at a campaign event for Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in Houston, on Oct. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Still, rules are rules, and here we are. Carpenter might win, but it’s hard not to question if this “new artist” title hits a little differently. Maybe it needs to be tweaked.

Best pop solo performance
“Bodyguard,” Beyoncé; “Espresso,” Sabrina Carpenter; “Apple,” Charli xcx; “Birds of a Feather,” Billie Eilish; “Good Luck, Babe!”, Chappell Roan

SHERMAN: First things first — it is exciting to see an all-woman lineup and it comes as no surprise: they’re dominating streaming growth in the U.S. Something tells me this will go to Sabrina Carpenter for her summertime-and-then-some smash, “Espresso.”

LANDRUM: In this all-women category, I see Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” soaring to victory.

Best rap performance
“Enough (Miami),” Cardi B; “When the Sun Shines Again,” Common and Pete Rock featuring Psdnuos; “Nissan Altima,” Doechii; “Houdini,” Eminem; “Like That,” Future and Metro Boomin featuring Kendrick Lamar; “Yeah Glo!”, GloRilla; “Not Like Us,” Kendrick Lamar

LANDRUM: There are some big names in this category, but none of the nominees are quite like Lamar’s “Not Like Us.” The only real challenger? Future and Metro Boomin’s “Like That,” which, um, features Lamar himself.

Either way, Lamar takes the win.

SHERMAN: It is Lamar’s, no question about it.

Best country album
“Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé; “F-1 Trillion,” Post Malone; “Deeper Well,” Kacey Musgraves; “Higher,” Chris Stapleton; “Whirlwind,” Lainey Wilson

SHERMAN: A few things can be true at once: I believe, in my heart of hearts, Post Malone may earn his first Grammy at the 2025 award show. I believe Beyoncé will win album of the year for “Cowboy Carter.” But when it comes to the best country album category – and the names Chris Stapleton and Lainey Wilson are included – it’s hard for me to imagine they’d lose, given the Grammys’ track record.

LANDRUM: If Beyoncé doesn’t win best country album, how can she possibly take home album of the year? Shrugs. Make it make sense. A loss in this category would feel like a tell-all sign for how the evening might play out for Beyoncé ahead of the ceremony’s top honor.

In my humble opinion, crowning Stapleton — or any other artist — over Beyoncé in this category wouldn’t make sense, especially since she’s the only nominee in this category that’s up for album of the year. Plus, her culturally groundbreaking album isn’t just a genre-defying masterpiece; it’s a cultural moment that should rightfully dominate the night.

Voters have made some questionable calls in the past. But if justice prevails, Queen Bey should be leaving with this country music crown.

Best R&B album
“11:11 (Deluxe),” Chris Brown; “Vantablack,” Lalah Hathaway; “Revenge,” Muni Long; “Algorithm,” Lucky Daye; “Coming Home,” Usher

LANDRUM: Did you know it’s been a decade since Usher last took home a Grammy? 2015 to be exact. I think Usher’s Grammy-winning drought finally comes to an end with his “Coming Home” album. That said, don’t sleep on Muni Long’s “Revenge,” which could sneak in and steal the spotlight.

SHERMAN: I often find that Grammy voters award an artist for their very big years. After strategically dropping the great “Coming Home” ahead of his Super Bowl performance and following it up with a tour after his super popular Vegas residency, how could it not go to Usher?

Best dance/electronic album
“BRAT,” Charli xcx; “Three,” Four Tet; “Hyperdrama,” Justice; “Timeless,” KAYTRANADA; “Telos,” Zedd

SHERMAN: Charli xcx’s “BRAT” was more than an album, it was a zeitgeist-shifting movement where the rules are have fun, be messy, go to a rave and embrace a vomit-y chartreuse color. Right? I believe she will win her first Grammy at this year’s show, and I believe at least one of them will be for best dance/electronic album – unless, of course, the Justice fans emerge out of the woodwork.

LANDRUM: This feels like “BRAT” is destined to win, especially since it’s the only project in this category also up for album of the year. However, if Beyoncé could potentially lose best country album, then anything’s possible including KAYTRANADA’s “Timeless” pulling off the upset.

Both projects are on par with each other, and KAYTRANADA along with Justice have triumphed in this category before. But it just feels like the stars are aligning for Charli xcx to take this one.

Best Latin pop album
“Funk Generation,” Anitta; “El Viaje,” Luis Fonsi; “GARCÍA,” Kany García; “Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran,” Shakira; “ORQUÍDEAS,” Kali Uchis

SHERMAN: While música Mexicana continues to grow globally (and that category will likely see another win from Peso Pluma — or maybe Carin León for his hooky “Boca Chueca, Vol. 1”) I wanted to talk through the Latin pop album category, because I think there’s some potential for competition here. Kali Uchis’ “ORQUÍDEAS” was not only one of AP’s picks for best of 2024, but it was also met with wide-spread acclaim. Could Recording Academy members agree? Kany García won a few trophies at the 2024 Latin Grammys, but my money is on Shakira’s “Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran.” It is her first new album in seven years, and I think she will be awarded accordingly.

LANDRUM: Shakira might have a strong shot at taking this category, but my money’s on “ORQUIDEAS.” With out-of-this-world production, Uchis effortlessly switches between Spanish and English, taking listeners on a journey that flows from melodic vibes to full-on dance floor energy. It’s the perfect fusion, and the ultimate recipe for a win.

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