Nobody is running away with NBA rookie of the year race yet, which is a change from most years

 

[January 29, 2025]  By TIM REYNOLDS

At this point, there is no Victor Wembanyama in this season's NBA rookie class. There is no Paolo Banchero. And there's no Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin, Brandon Roy, Derrick Rose or Chris Paul, either.

They were all unanimous, or just about unanimous, rookie of the year selections. Everybody knew long before the ballots were cast who was going to win the award that season. There was no mystery.

If this season's voting was held today, good luck figuring out what would happen.

No rookie has emerged as the leader of this year's class. There isn't a single first-year player on pace to average 15 points and appear in enough games to qualify for the league's leaderboard; the last time that happened was 2016-17. And right now, according to BetMGM Sportsbook, the favorite to win rookie of the year is someone who has started four games all season, all of them in the last week or so — Miami's Kel'el Ware.

“It means I'm doing something right on the court,” Ware said.

He's not wrong, but it also speaks to how nobody in this rookie group has stepped to the front of the class, either — especially considering Tuesday's news that Ware was not picked by the NBA for the Rising Stars event at All-Star weekend.

Here were the current leaders in terms of rookie of the year odds, according to BetMGM, as of Monday night: Ware (+200) tops the list, San Antonio's Stephon Castle (+275) is second, and Memphis' Jaylen Wells and Washington's Alexandre Sarr (both +350) are tied for third.

Grizzlies center Zach Edey (+1400) is fifth. After that, everyone is at least 40-1 at this point.

If Castle wins, the Spurs would have done something that's been managed only once in the last half-century — having back-to-back rookies of the year. It happened in 2015 and 2016 when Andrew Wiggins and Towns won for Minnesota.

“He really has a chance to be special,” Paul said of Castle, his Spurs teammate.

Ware is clearly developing as the season goes along. The center out of Indiana didn't have his first double-figure scoring game for the Heat until Jan. 1. He had three consecutive 20-point games last week for Miami — the push that vaulted him into the favorite spot on the BetMGM rookie board — but still wasn't on the initial list for All-Star weekend in San Francisco for the Rising Stars games (and potentially the All-Star Game itself, which the Rising Stars winning team will be part of).

Miami Heat center Kel'el Ware, left, dunks over Orlando Magic forward Jonathan Isaac, center, during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Monday, Jan. 27, 2025, in Miami. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

It's all happened very quickly for Ware. A couple weeks ago, he wasn't even seeming like a legit rookie of the year candidate — much less the favorite.

“Believe it or not, he’s been ready since he came here,” Heat teammate Tyler Herro said. “When he wasn’t in the rotation, he was just overly communicative about how he wants to be in the rotation and how he feels like he can help. I always felt like he could help. And now, him just getting his opportunity, I think everybody is starting to see what he’s capable of."

The NBA picked 10 rookies for the Rising Stars games: Wells, Sarr, Castle, Edey, Washington’s Bub Carrington, Orlando’s Tristan da Silva, the Los Angeles Lakers’ Dalton Knecht, Philadelphia’s Jared McCain, New Orleans’ Yves Missi and Atlanta’s Zaccharie Risacher — the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft. McCain is injured and is out for the rest of the season, which could open a spot for Ware or another rookie to be picked in his place.

If nothing else, there might be a real rookie of the year race when it's time to vote in April. There have been very few of those in the last couple decades — with the majority of the winners in that span getting 90% or more of the first-place votes.

A rare exception was in 2022, when Toronto's Scottie Barnes won by getting 48 first-place votes to Evan Mobley’s 43. Every other winner over the last 20 years has gotten at least 60% of the first-place votes; the last real “close” race was for the 2002 award, when Amar'e Stoudemire got 59 first-place votes — barely 50%. Yao Ming got 45 that year and Caron Butler got 13.

Nobody is dominant in this class, yet. That might make award season very interesting.

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