Republicans crafting Trump's big bill hit a familiar roadblock: How to pay for it

[January 30, 2025]  By KEVIN FREKING

DORAL, Fla. (AP) — After fours years of criticizing growing government deficits under Joe Biden, Republicans now have a math problem of their own — how to offset the multitrillion-dollar cost of extending and expanding the tax cuts they passed in President Donald Trump’s first term.

House Republicans attending their annual retreat at a Trump-owned golf resort here this week put up a united front, insisting they are moving quickly toward House votes in the coming weeks to kickstart work on Trump’s tax cut and border security package.

But behind the scenes, it was clear that the bill remains a work in progress, with Republicans holding widely divergent views on how much the price tag of Trump's bill should be offset with spending cuts elsewhere.

It's a divide with major ramifications for the taxpayers, the country and for Trump, who has said he wants a “big, beautiful bill” to sign that fulfills many of his campaign promises. Seeking to rally support in a speech Monday evening, Trump exhorted Republicans to stick together because “we have a chance to win like never before.”

Here's what to know about the debate among House Republicans and how it might play out:

The GOP's fiscal divide

With Republicans controlling Congress and the White House, fiscal hawks say the time is now to change the nation's fiscal trajectory. Steep cuts to Medicaid spending are among their priorities as they push for a major overhaul of government spending.

But other Republicans are wary of steep cuts and want more details before pledging their support.

GOP leaders have to bridge the divide. With Republicans holding the barest of majorities in the House — a 218-215 majority — they need virtual unanimity to pass the legislation that nearly all Democrats are likely to oppose.

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., said she did not want to be asked to vote for a topline number in a budget plan without a better handle on how it will be paid for. She said New York is a state that relies heavily on Medicaid and she has concerns about some of the proposed changes for the program.

“There’s certain things I’ve found concerning and I’ve expressed that,” Malliotakis said. “I want to have a more general understanding than ‘we’re going (with) this topline number and figure it out later.’ That’s not comfortable to me.”

Trump's priorities come with a hefty price tag

Extending the Trump tax cuts for the next 10 years is something Republicans broadly agree upon — and it isn't cheap.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has projected that extending the Trump tax cuts for the next 10 years would add $4.6 trillion to federal deficits.

But Trump wants a lot more in the bill than that.

Trump wants to exclude taxes on Social Security, overtime and tips. He’s looking to increase the cap on state and local tax deductions. And he wants to increase border security personnel and infrastructure, among other priorities. The price tag, once all those things are added, is expected to be enormous.

Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., the chairman of a group of fiscal hardliners in the House Freedom Caucus, said at a minimum the package should not add to the deficit, but it should also go beyond that to reduce deficits “to send a signal to the financial markets.” He said greater economic growth could help pay for some of the package, but that Freedom Caucus members were also looking for about $3 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years.

House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., speaks before President Donald Trump at the 2025 House Republican Members Conference Dinner at Trump National Doral Miami in Doral, Fla., Monday, Jan. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

“We would prefer smoke and mirrors were not used on this,” Harris said. “We think we should make the case that we should return some of the mandatory programs, but not Social Security, not Medicare, to pre-COVID spending levels.”

That would put much of the focus on Medicaid, the federal-state program that provides health insurance coverage to lower-income families. Many Republicans are rallying around adding work requirements for some participants in the program. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has already labeled the effort the “contract against America" and said it will raise costs on tens of millions of Americans.

Speaker Johnson's ‘admonition’ to fellow Republicans

As the GOP retreat drew to a close, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he was not ready to disclose a topline number for the legislative package even though he wants an initial vote in the House Budget Committee next week.

He appealed to colleagues for flexibility on the issue of deficit reduction.

“My admonition to my colleagues here is that we set a number that’s really a floor in what we hope to achieve by savings and not a ceiling,” Johnson said.

He said Republicans used the retreat to go over with committee chairmen where “some of these cuts can be done, meaningful cuts to really reduce the size and scope of government.”

“These are lot of handouts and sheets and big screens we’re been going over for many weeks now, and we’re finalizing all that now,” Johnson said.

Rep. Brett Guthrie, chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, said the work requirements that Republicans proposed for Medicaid will have some exceptions, including for adults with dependents. He said he expects it would apply to adults age 18 to 55.

Further complicating the aggressive timeline set by Johnson is that about a quarter of House Republicans did not attend the retreat. It's unclear how long it will take for them to buy into the changes being discussed, and some sounded skeptical of the effort.

“It is being reported I am not at the so-called Republican retreat in Florida. I am not. I am in Texas, with my family & meeting with constituents, rather than spending $2K to hear more excuses for increasing deficits & not being in DC to deliver Trump’s border security $ASAP,” said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, on social media.

Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, said that Republicans were going through a “very thoughtful process” to generate support for the package, but weren't quite there yet.

“We had districts that Biden won by 10 points and districts that Trump won by 40. That's the makeup of the Republican conference and we're trying to find that sweet spot," Moore said.

"It's been very, very difficult," he added.

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