US aid was long a lifeline for Eastern Europe. Trump cuts are sending shockwaves through the region

[January 31, 2025]  By STEPHEN McGRATH and AUREL OBREJA

CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) — President Donald Trump’s abrupt freeze of U.S. foreign aid is sending shockwaves through Eastern Europe, leaving pro-democracy groups, independent media, civil society initiatives and local governments scrambling to make ends meet in a region often defined by rivalries between East and West.

The U.S. State Department said that the 90-day freeze aims to root out waste and block so-called woke programs to expose U.S.-funded activities “that run contrary to our national interests” — as Trump aggressively rolls out his “America First” agenda.

Fears of a rise in influence from Russia and China
Eastern Europe has been a longtime geopolitical battleground where Western foreign policy interests often collide with those of Moscow or Beijing.

Many fear the cessation of U.S. funds could expose Washington's allies — and create a vacuum that its foes could gladly seek to fill.

“In Moldova’s case, foreign donor support is vital to balancing the media landscape," says Oxana Greadcenco, the director of independent media platform Moldova.org. “Many television networks and media institutions are funded by Russia so there needs to be a counterbalance ... This is an unprecedented situation, but we are trying not to panic.”

The U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, informed her that grants officially ended on Jan. 24 and they aren’t allowed to spend any remaining funds in their accounts. This week, Greadcenco promoted their online Patreon campaign, which garnered 135 new backers in two days, which should cover salaries for the platform’s 16-strong staff through March, she said.

“We did not expect it to impact Moldova so severely, as we thought there would only be a partial cut in funds,” she told The Associated Press. "Being aware of how much Moldova depends on U.S. funds, not just NGOs and the press but also local municipalities, many public institutions … this is a shock for everyone."

Vital aid for former communist countries
Since the 1990s, USAID has invested several billion dollars in countries like Moldova, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina — all former communist countries with aspirations of joining the European Union.

In these countries, USAID money has promoted democratic institutions and reforms, aided infrastructure and energy security projects, bolstered businesses and economies, and supported a significant number of nongovernmental organizations and independent media platforms. The agency says it “tailors its approach to each country’s unique challenges and opportunities.”

“It’s no exaggeration to say that we have democracy in Moldova, in part thanks to American financial support,” Valeriu Pasa, the chairman of the Chisinau-based think-tank WatchDog, said in a statement on Wednesday. He added that the U.S. benefits "from us being more democratic and developed, ensuring we don’t turn into a Russian or Chinese colony.”

The wide-ranging effects of the USAID spending freeze spanning different sectors highlight how critical the funds are to the region.

Sytrime Dervisholi, executive director of the Prefabricated Construction Association of Kosovo, says the halted USAID funds will adversely affect her association’s ability to provide technical assistance to member companies that require vocational education and training, and access to grants.

“Kosovo, but also our association … is dependent on foreign aid, mostly on U.S. aid,” she said. “So we really do hope that this measure will be … canceled after 90 days,” when the funding reviews by U.S. officials have concluded.

Safet Gerxhaliu, an independent economic analyst in Kosovo, also believes the USAID freeze could have “a very negative impact” on the country’s future, affecting everything from the government to the private sector and education.

“I do believe that the impact is very bad, because those measures come at the same time that Kosovo is under sanctions from the European community,” he said. Brussels froze some funding to Kosovo in 2023 following a series of clashes with ethnic Serb minorities.

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken walks during a visit to the site of Moldelectrica Chisinau Substation in Braila, a USAID supported project, south of the capital of Moldova, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

Although Serbia obtained EU candidate status in 2012, the Balkan nation is also a key ally of Russia and China in Europe. Under the government of populist President Aleksandar Vucic, reforms in areas such as strengthening the rule of law and tackling corruption have been slow, and the USAID suspension could further hamper progress.

“We currently have a USAID project about public financing. Training for local NGOs regarding following of public finances,” Nemanja Nenadic from Transparency International organization in Serbia, told the AP. “This has been put on hold.”

US funds help monitor elections
For the Promo-LEX Association, a longtime pro-democracy and human rights NGO in Moldova, USAID funds are vital since they account for about 75-80% of its projects, which include monitoring elections, political financing and parliamentary oversight.

“All USAID-funded activities have been put on hold. Without immediate alternative support, these crucial activities may not continue at the same scale or effectiveness,” said Ion Manole, the association’s executive director. “Given previous Russian interference — through illicit campaign funding, political corruption, and disinformation — our observation mission is essential to ensuring electoral transparency."

Moldova will hold a pivotal parliamentary election this fall which comes after the pro-Western government accused Russia of meddling in two key votes last year — including backing a vast vote-buying scheme in the country of about 2.5 million people.

“Without resources, we cannot deploy long-term observers, conduct election-day monitoring, or track foreign interference effectively," Manole said. “A change to an anti-Western government could affect Moldova’s European path and ... significantly destabilize the whole of Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region.”

“We remain hopeful that the U.S. government’s evaluation process will allow programs like ours to resume,” he said, adding that his NGO is already seeking alternative funding, mainly from European donors.

A geopolitical opportunity for Moscow
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told the AP that any suspension of aid “gives Russia an unnecessary opportunity to exploit and benefit further from Moldova’s weaknesses, which the lack of USAID funding would exacerbate.”

“Moscow would therefore have greater abilities to derail Chisinau from its European Union integration course,” he said. “Similarly, cutting funding to independent news outlets makes it more difficult for journalists to hold corrupt politicians — many of whom have connections to Russia — accountable and therefore weakens Moldova’s sovereignty and institutional independence.”

The Trump administration has cast the aid freeze as an accountability quest to justify American spending abroad. Beyond support for Ukraine in recent years, the U.S. is spending about $40 billion in foreign aid annually, according to the U.S. State Department.

Greadcenco of the Moldova.org news platform hopes that other international partners will consider stepping in to stem a potential longer-term shortfall.

“These funds are vital to keeping Moldova afloat,” she said. “I dread to think what the complete cessation of these funds would mean for our country.”

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Stephen McGrath reported from Sighisoara, Romania. Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Serbia, Llazar Semini in Tirana, Albania, and Florent Bajrami in Pristina, Kosovo, contributed to this report.

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