Why hosting a July Fourth pool party may cost less this year
[July 03, 2025] By
ANNE D'INNOCENZIO
NEW YORK (AP) — Americans have one more reason to celebrate this Fourth
of July: getting all the gear needed to host a pool party costs less
than it has in years, according to a market research company's
preliminary data.
The total price to buy beach towels, a beverage cooler, bathing suits
and other accountrements of summer fun averaged $858 in June, the lowest
amount for the month since 2020, consumer data provider Numerator said
in an analysis prepared for The Associated Press.
The finding from the firm's seasonal snapshot comports with broader
economic measures indicating that U.S. consumers so far have not seen
major impacts from President Donald Trump's vigorous application of
tariffs on foreign goods.
Numerator tracks U.S. retail prices through sales receipts, online
account activity and other information from a panel of 200,000 shoppers.
To see how prices are shaping up for the summer, the company looked at
the average purchase price for 16 seasonal items typically made in
China.
Along with four towels, a cooler and bathing suits for two adults and a
toddler, the hypothetical shopping list for a poolside gathering
included a grill, four patio chairs, four cushions, a patio umbrella and
four outdoor pillows. Recreation supplies included a cornhole set, two
pairs of swim goggles, a set of diving rings, two beach balls and two
pool floats or noodles.

Leo Feler, Numerator’s chief economist, offered a few theories for why
buying all that stuff cost 11% less last month than it did in June 2023,
when the average cost reached a high of $966, and 8.4% less than it did
in June 2024.
Wholesale suppliers and retailers that order from Chinese manufacturers
may have imported too much stock while trying to stay ahead of high
tariff bills, Feler said. As declining consumer confidence measures
pointed to the possibility of weak sales, those businesses might have
offered early discounts rather than risking their merchandise going
unsold, he said.
Given wide swings in Trump’s trade posture toward China, retail vendors
may have decided to absorb any initial tariff costs instead of trying to
figure out how much more to charge their business customers, Feler said.
The tariff rate on Chinese products soared to 145% in April before China
and the U.S. reached a deal last month that brought the overall rate
down to 55%.
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People enjoy the summer day in the pool on Wednesday, June 24, 2020,
in Omaha, Neb. (Anna Reed/Omaha World-Herald via AP, File)
 Suppliers often work on six-month
contracts that are signed in January or February and again in June
or July. That means many contracts for patio tables and chairs, for
example, were signed before the White House included metal furniture
in the aluminum or steel products that would be subject to a 25%
tariff that went up to 50% last month.
Customers who want to buy a new set of beach towels or to replace an
old cooler still might want to hold off until August since prices
will get lower in late summer, Feler said. But waiting until next
year may prove costly, if the tariffs on products from China remain
in place, he said.
Just because preparing for a backyard bash might be comparatively
less expensive right now, many economists and retail industry
analysts still expect consumers to feel the weight of Trump's
favorite trade negotiation tool. Shoppers are likely to see higher
prices for back-to-school items starting in July and August,
according to Feler.
The time it's taking for the extra taxes on imports to reach stores
could turn out like the pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions
that contributed to U.S. inflation in 2021 and 2022.
“It wasn’t like there was a sudden surge," Feler said. "It was a few
prices increased here, then a few more prices, and a few other
prices, and a couple more prices. And it started gaining speed.”
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