Brazil vows retaliatory tariffs against US if Trump follows through on
50% import taxes
[July 11, 2025] By
MAURICIO SAVARESE and JOSH BOAK
RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said
Thursday that he will impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States if
President Donald Trump follows through on a pledge to boost import taxes
by 50% over the South American country's criminal trial against his
predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
Lula said he will trigger Brazil's reciprocity law approved by Congress
earlier this year if negotiations with the U.S. fail.
“If there’s no negotiation, the reciprocity law will be put to work. If
he charges 50 (% tariffs) from us, we will charge 50 from them,” Lula
told TV Record in excerpts of an interview that will be fully aired
later in the day. “Respect is good. I like to offer mine and I like to
receive it.”
Lula's comments raise the risk of a tariffs war erupting between the two
countries, similar to what has happened between the U.S. and China.
Trump has vowed to respond forcefully if countries seek to punish the
U.S. by adding tariffs of their own.
The president of Brazil's Senate, Sen. Davi Alcolumbre, and Chamber of
Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta, a pair of moderates who have recently been
at odds with Lula, agreed that the recipricity law gives Brazil “the
means ... to protect our sovereignty.”
“We will be ready to act with balance and firmness in defense of our
economy, our productive sector, and the protection of Brazilian jobs,”
they said in a joint statement.
A new front in the trade war
The tariffs letter that Trump sent to Brazil — and posted on social
media Wednesday — railing against the “witch hunt” trial against
Bolsonaro opened up a new front in his trade wars, with the U.S. leader
directly using import taxes to interfere with another nation’s domestic
politics.
Trump has already tried to use tariffs to ostensibly combat fentanyl
trafficking and as a negotiating tool to change how other nations tax
digital services and regulate their economies.
In Brazil’s case, Trump is trying to dictate the outcome of the criminal
trial of Bolsonaro, an ally who like Trump has been charged with
attempting to overturn a presidential election. Bolsonaro maintains that
he is being politically persecuted by Brazil’s Supreme Court over his
charges on the alleged plot to remain in power after his 2022 election
loss to Lula.
“There’s nothing Lula or Brazil can do about Bolsonaro’s trial,” said
Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao
Paulo. “Any change in that would be Brazil's capitulation. Bolsonaro’s
situation here won’t change. How do you negotiate over that?"
Lula ordered his diplomats on Thursday to return Trump's letter if it
physically arrives at the presidential palace in Brasilia. The document
attacks the country's judiciary and mentions recent rulings on social
media companies among the reasons why goods from the South American
nation will have higher tariffs from Aug. 1.
Trade negotiations now ‘up in the air’
Trump has initiated his tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency
Economic Powers Act, saying in April that the persistent deficit between
what the U.S. exports and what it imports is a national crisis.
But the U.S. runs a trade surplus with Brazil, undermining some of the
rationale.
A staffer of Brazil's foreign ministry told The Associated Press that
trade negotiations that were ongoing since Trump imposed a first set of
tariffs in April are now “up in the air.”
Some members of the Lula administration say Trump’s move is actually
aimed at Brazil’s connection with other Southern economies, as displayed
on Sunday at the summit of BRICS nations hosted in Rio de Janeiro.
Brazil's president once again mentioned the hope for an alternative
currency to the dollar for transactions, a topic that frequently draws
Trump's ire.
“Trump was never worried about democracy anywhere, much less with
Bolsonaro’s destiny,” said Gleisi Hoffmann, Brazil’s institutional
relations minister.
[to top of second column] |
Protesters wearing masks of U.S. President Donald Trump and former
President Jair Bolsonaro as a prisoner, protest Trump's announcement
of 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, in Sao Paulo, Thursday, July 10,
2025. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
 Brazil's new unity
Trump's interference in Brazilian affairs has brought a sense of
unity that was largely absent in the politically divided nation.
Some of Bolsonaro's allies claimed Lula had drawn the U.S.
president's anger with other decisions, including criticism of
Israel's war in Gaza. But other supporters of the former president
chose to ask for prudence in negotiations.
Daily O Estado de S. Paulo, a frequent critic of Lula and his
administration, said in an editorial on Thursday that Trump’s move
against the Brazilian government is “a mafia thing.” It also said
Lula's reaction was correct, a rare feature for the newspaper.
Analysts also see Trump’s attempt to interfere in the country's
domestic affairs as a potential backfire for Bolsonaro during his
trial and a push for Lula, whose reelection bid was facing
unpopularity headwinds this year.
Canadians recently elected Mark Carney as prime minister, with his
Liberal Party reenergized by Trump’s tariffs and threats to make
Canada the 51st U.S. state.
“The reaction of a lot of people is that this is a political gift to
Lula,” said Andre Pagliarini, a professor of history and
international studies at Louisiana State University who is also
affiliated with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Thomas Traumann, an independent political consultant and former
Brazilian minister, called Trump's move “a game changer" for next
year's election.
“Trump put Lula back in the game,” Traumann said. “This gives Lula a
narrative, puts Bolsonaro as the guilty part for any economic
problems.”
Exceeding the authority
The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled in May that Trump had
exceeded his authority by declaring an emergency to impose tariffs
without congressional approval. The Trump administration is
appealing that decision, but opponents plan to use his Brazil letter
to bolster their case.
“This is a brazenly illegal effort by Donald Trump to sacrifice the
economy to settle his own personal scores, and it is far outside his
legal authority,” said Democratic Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden.
The Republican administration has argued that their tariffs are now
relatively harmless for the U.S. economy, since inflation has
trended down in recent months. But many companies stockpiled imports
to get ahead of the import taxes, and it’s unclear what happens when
their inventories dwindle and consumers consider the risk of higher
prices. Most outside economic analyses expect growth to decline.
In Brazil, Trump’s interest in Bolsonaro’s trial is expected to
weigh over the trial. Media outlets have reported that lawmakers and
judges are worried the former president will try to leave Brazil for
the U.S. if he is convicted.
Lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, a son of the former president, moved to
the U.S. in March. On Wednesday night, he asked his supporters on X
to post “their thank you to President Donald Trump."
In Thursday's interview, Lula said the elder Bolsonaro “should take
the responsibility for agreeing with Trump’s taxation to Brazil.”
“His son went there to make up Trump’s mind, then he (Trump) writes
a letter to speak about a case that is in the hands of the Supreme
Court. A case that is not a political trial. What is under
investigation is the evidence of the case,” Lula said.
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Boak reported from Washington.
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