'Beautiful' or 'Ugly,' Trump's big bill shapes the battle for House
control in 2026 midterms
[July 14, 2025]
By BILL BARROW, JONATHAN J. COOPER and JACK BROOK
WASHINGTON (AP) — Debate over President Donald Trump’s sweeping
budget-and-policy package is over on Capitol Hill. Now the argument goes
national.
From the Central Valley of California to Midwestern battlegrounds and
suburban districts of the northeast, the new law already is shaping the
2026 midterm battle for control of the House of Representatives. The
outcome will set the tone for Trump’s final two years in the Oval
Office.
Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to break the GOP’s
chokehold on Washington and reestablish a power center to counter Trump.
There's added pressure to flip the House given that midterm Senate
contests are concentrated in Republican-leaning states, making it harder
for Democrats to reclaim that chamber.
As Republicans see it, they've now delivered broad tax cuts, an
unprecedented investment in immigration enforcement and new restraints
on social safety net programs. Democrats see a law that rolls back
health insurance access and raises costs for middle-class Americans
while cutting taxes mostly for the rich, curtailing green energy
initiatives and restricting some workers’ organizing rights.
“It represents the broken promise they made to the American people,”
said Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Washington Democrat who chairs the party's
House campaign arm. “We’re going to continue to hold Republicans
accountable for this vote.”
Parties gear up for a fight
Whether voters see it that way will be determined on a
district-by-district level, but the battle will be more intense in some
places than others. Among the 435 House districts, only 69 contests were
decided by less than 10 percentage points in the 2024 general election.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has so far identified 26
Democratic-held seats it must defend vigorously, along with 35 GOP-held
seats it believes could be ripe to flip. Republicans’ campaign arm, the
National Republican Congressional Committee, has so far listed 18 GOP
incumbents as priorities, plus two districts opened by retirements.
There are a historically low number of so-called crossover districts:
Only 13 Democrats represent districts Trump carried in 2024, while just
three Republicans serve districts Democratic presidential nominee Kamala
Harris carried.
Both committees are busy recruiting challengers and open-seat candidates
and more retirements could come, so the competitive map will evolve.
Still, there are clusters of districts guaranteed to influence the
national result.
California, despite its clear lean to Democrats statewide, has at least
nine House districts expected to be up for grabs: three in the Central
Valley and six in southern California. Six are held by Democrats, three
by the GOP.
Pennsylvania features four districts that have been among the closest
national House races for several consecutive cycles. They include a
suburban Philadelphia seat represented by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, one of
just two House Republicans to vote against Trump’s bill and one of the
three GOP lawmakers from a district Harris won. Fitzpatrick cited the
Medicaid cuts.
Vice President JD Vance plans on Wednesday to be in Republican Rep. Rob
Bresnahan’s northwest Pennsylvania district to tout the GOP package.
Bresnahan's seat is a top Democratic target.
Iowa and Wisconsin, meanwhile, feature four contiguous GOP-held
districts in farm-heavy regions where voters could be swayed by fallout
from Trump’s tariffs.
Democrats fight to define the GOP
Beyond bumper-sticker labels – Trump’s preferred “Big Beautiful Bill”
versus Democrats’ “Big Ugly Bill” retort – the 900-page law is, in fact,
an array of policies with varying impact.
Democrats hammer Medicaid and food assistance cuts, some timed to take
full effect only after the 2026 midterms, along with Republicans’
refusal to extend tax credits to some people who obtained health
insurance through the Affordable Care Act.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 11.8 million more
Americans would become uninsured by 2034 if the bill became law; 3
million more would not qualify for food stamps, also known as SNAP
benefits.
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks during a
Congressional Gold Medal ceremony for three-time Tour de France
winner Greg LeMond at the Capitol, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, in
Washington. (AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)
“Folks will die here in Louisiana and in other parts of the country,”
House Minority Leader Jeffries warned last week during a town hall in
Republican Speaker Mike Johnson’s home state of Louisiana.
Jeffries singled out vulnerable Republicans like California Rep. David
Valadao, who represents a heavily agricultural Central Valley district
where more than half the population is eligible for the joint
state-federal insurance program. California allows immigrants with legal
status and those who are undocumented to qualify for Medicaid, so not
all Medicaid recipients are voters. But the program helps finance the
overall health care system, including nursing homes and hospitals.
Republicans highlight the law's tightened work requirements for Medicaid
enrollees. They argue it's a popular provision that will strengthen the
program.
“I voted for this bill because it does preserve the Medicaid program for
its intended recipients — children, pregnant women, the disabled, and
elderly,” Valadao said. “I know how important the program is for my
constituents.”
Republicans hope voters see lower taxes
The law includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. It makes permanent existing
rates and brackets approved during Trump’s first term. Republicans and
their allies have hammered vulnerable Democrats for “raising costs” on
American households by opposing the bill.
GOP campaign aides point to the popularity of individual provisions:
boosting the $2,000 child tax credit to $2,200 (some families at lower
income levels would not get the full credit), new deductions on tip and
overtime income and auto loans; and a new deduction for older adults
earning less than $75,000 a year.
“Everyone will have more take home pay. They’ll have more jobs and
opportunity,” Johnson said in a Fox News Sunday interview. “The economy
will be doing better and we’ll be able to point to that as the obvious
result of what we did.”
Democrats note that the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s tax code are
wealthy Americans and corporations. Pairing that with safety net cuts,
Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz concluded, “The cruelty is the
point.”
Immigration, meanwhile, was Trump’s strongest issue in 2024. NRCC aides
say that will continue with the new law’s investments in immigration
enforcement. Democrats believe the Trump administration has overplayed
its hand with its push for mass deportation.
Playing the Trump card
The president is a titanic variable.
Democrats point to 2018, when they notched a 40-seat net gain in House
seats to take control away from the GOP. This year, Democrats have
enjoyed a double-digit swing in special elections around the country
when compared to 2024 presidential results. Similar trends emerged in
2017 after Trump's 2016 victory. Democrats say that reflects voter
discontent with Trump once he's actually in charge.
Republicans answer that Trump’s job approval remains higher at this
point than in 2017. But the GOP’s effort is further complicated by
ongoing realignments: Since Trump’s emergence, Democrats have gained
affluent white voters -– like those in suburban swing districts -– while
Trump has drawn more working-class voters across racial and ethnic
groups. But Republicans face a stiffer challenge of replicating Trump’s
coalition in a midterm election without him on the ballot.
Democrats, meanwhile, must corral voters who are not a threat to vote
for Republicans but could stay home.
Jeffries said he's determined not to let that happen: “We’re going to do
everything we can until we end this national nightmare.”
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