The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their
own headaches
[July 21, 2025]
By THOMAS BEAUMONT and JILL COLVIN
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are encountering early headaches in Senate
races viewed as pivotal to maintaining the party’s majority in next
year's midterm elections, with recruitment failures, open primaries,
infighting and a president who has been sitting on the sidelines.
Democrats still face an uphill battle. They needs to net four seats to
retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that
Republican President Donald Trump easily won in November.
But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans’ challenges. They
include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat
Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the
party lacks a clear field of candidates. Trump’s influence dials up the
uncertainty in several states as he decides whether to flex his
influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.
Republicans stress that it remains early in the cycle and say there is
plenty of time left for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to
wade in.
A look at what is happening in some key Senate races:
An ugly Texas brawl
Democrats have long dreamed of winning statewide office in this ruby red
state. Could a nasty GOP primary be their ticket?
National Republicans and Senate strategists are worried that state
Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is facing a bevy of personal and
ethical questions, could beat Sen. John Cornyn for the nomination.
They fear Paxton would be a disastrous general election candidate,
forcing Republicans to invest tens of millions of dollars they would
rather spend elsewhere.
But Cornyn has had a cool relationship with Trump over the years, while
Paxton long has been a loyal Trump ally. And Paxton raised more than
three times as much as Cornyn in the second quarter, $2.9 million
compared with $804,000, according to Federal Elections Commission
reports.
Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas is also weighing a run.
Will Trump be persuaded to endorse or will he choose to steer clear?
Will North Carolina have a Trump on the ballot?
The surprise retirement announcement by two-term Sen. Thom Tillis has
set off a frenzied search for a replacement in a state widely seen as
Democrats’ top pickup opportunity. He had repeatedly clashed with Trump,
including over Medicaid changes in the tax cut bill, leading the
president to threaten to back a primary challenger.
All eyes are now on Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, who is
mulling whether to run in her home state as other potential candidates
stand by.
Having a Trump on the ballot could boost a party that has struggled to
motivate its most fervent base when Donald Trump is not running. But
Lara Trump currently lives in Florida and has so far sounded muted on
the prospect.
Others possible contenders include RNC chair Michael Whatley, who led
North Carolina’s GOP before taking the national job, and first-term
Reps. Pat Harrigan and Brad Knott.
Democrats are waiting on a decision from former two-term Gov. Roy
Cooper, seen as a formidable candidate by both parties in a state Trump
carried by just 3.2 percentage points last year.
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Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a member of the Senate Banking Committee,
tells reporters that it would be a mistake for President Donald
Trump to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, during a vote in
the Senate, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, July 16, 2025.
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
In Georgia, a pickup opportunity with no candidate yet
Republicans see Georgia and the seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff as
one of their top pickup opportunities next year. But the party
remains in search of a well-known challenger after failing to
persuade term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp to run.
A growing potential field includes Reps. Buddy Carter, Mike Collins
and Rich McCormick, Insurance Commissioner John King and Derek
Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach.
Ossoff took in more than $10 million in the second quarter of the
year, according to FEC filings, after raising $11 million from
January through March. He ended June with more than $15.5 million
cash on hand.
Michigan GOP waits on Trump
Republicans hope the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and a
crowded, expensive Democratic primary, will help them capture a seat
that has eluded them for more than three decades. Here, too, all
eyes are on Trump.
Republicans are rallying around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who came
within 20,000 votes in 2024 of ending that losing streak. But other
Republicans could complicate things. Rep. Bill Huizenga has said he
is waiting for guidance from the president on whether he should run
against Rogers.
Democrats have their own messy primary, with state Sen. Mallory
McMorrow up against Rep. Haley Stevens, state Rep. Joe Tate, and
former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
They were pleased to see that, even without any declared
challengers, Rogers’ main campaign account raised just $745,000
during the second fundraising quarter, lagging behind both Huizenga
and several Democrats. (He brought in another nearly $779,000
through a separate joint fundraising committee.) McMorrow, by
comparison, raised more than $2.1 million.
In Louisiana, another Trump antagonist faces voters
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy has faced scrutiny from his party in
Louisiana, in no small part for his 2021 vote to convict Trump after
his second impeachment. Will Trump decide to seek retribution
against the vulnerable two-term senator or ultimately back him?
Though Cassidy already faces two primary challengers, Louisiana is a
reliably Republican state, which Trump won last year by 22
percentage points. Democrats are hoping a strong contender —
potentially former Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has attracted
Republican votes in the past — might mount a competitive challenge.
Republicans are awaiting word on whether Rep. Julia Letlow will run.
In May, Gov. Jeff Landry and Trump privately discussed the two-term
congresswoman entering the race.
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Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa.
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