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The
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that
layoffs were little changed in June. But the number of people
quitting their jobs — a sign of confidence in their prospects
elsewhere — dropped last month to the lowest level since
December. Hiring also fell from May.
Posting on Bluesky, Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao wrote that
the report "shows softer figures with hires and quits rates
still sluggish. Not dire, not amazing, more meh.''
The U.S. job market has lost momentum this year, partly because
of the lingering effects of 11 interest rate hikes by the
inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023 and
partly because President Donald Trump’s trade wars have created
uncertainty that is paralyzing managers making hiring decisions.
On Friday, the Labor Department will put out unemployment and
hiring numbers for July. They are expected to show that the
unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.2% in July from
4.1% in June. Businesses, government agencies and nonprofits are
expected to have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000
in June, according to a survey of economists by the data firm
FactSet.
The seemingly decent June hiring numbers were weaker than they
appeared. Private payrolls rose just 74,000 in June, fewest
since last October when hurricanes disrupted job sites. And
state and local governments added nearly 64,000 education jobs
in June – a total that economists suspect was inflated by
seasonal quirks around the end of the school year.
So far this year, the economy has been generating 130,000 jobs a
month, down from 168,000 last year and an average 400,000 a
month from 2021 through 2023 during the recovery from COVID-19
lockdowns.
Employers are less likely to hire, but they're also not letting
workers go either. Layoffs remain below pre-pandemic levels.
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