Higher US tariffs part of the price Europe was willing to pay for its
security and arms for Ukraine
[July 30, 2025] By
LORNE COOK
BRUSSELS (AP) — France’s prime minister described it as a “dark day” for
the European Union, a “submission” to U.S. tariff demands. Commentators
said EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen’s handshake with President
Donald Trump amounted to capitulation.
The trouble is, Europe depends mightily on the United States, and not
just for trade.
Mirroring Trump, Von der Leyen gushed that the arrangement she endorsed
over the weekend to set U.S. tariff levels on most European exports to
15%, which is 10% higher than currently, was “huge.” Her staff texted
reporters insisting that the pact, which starts to enter force on
Friday, is the “biggest trade deal ever.”
A month after NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte ingratiated himself with
Trump by referring to him as “daddy,” the Europeans had again conceded
that swallowing the costs and praising an unpredictable president is
more palatable than losing America.
“It’s not only about the trade. It’s about security. It’s about Ukraine.
It’s about current geopolitical volatility. I cannot go into all the
details,” EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič told reporters Monday.
“I can assure you it was not only about the trade,” he insisted, a day
after “the deal” was sealed in an hour-long meeting once Trump finished
playing a round of golf with his son at the course he owns in Scotland.
The state of Europe's security dependency
Indeed, Europe depends on the U.S. for its security and that security is
anything but a game, especially since Russia invaded Ukraine. U.S.
allies are convinced that, should he win, President Vladimir Putin is
likely to take aim at one of them next.
So high are these fears that European countries are buying U.S. weapons
to help Ukraine to defend itself. Some are prepared to send their own
air defense systems and replace them with U.S. equipment, once it can be
delivered.
“We’re going to be sending now military equipment and other equipment to
NATO, and they’ll be doing what they want, but I guess it’s for the most
part working with Ukraine,” Trump said Sunday, sounding ambivalent about
America’s role in the alliance.
The Europeans also are wary about a U.S. troop drawdown, which the
Pentagon is expected to announce by October. Around 84,000 U.S.
personnel are based in Europe, and they guarantee NATO’s deterrent
effect against an adversary like Russia.
At the same time, Trump is slapping duties on America’s own NATO
partners, ostensibly due to concerns about U.S. security interests,
using Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, a logic that seems absurd
from across the Atlantic.
Weaning Europe off foreign suppliers
“The EU is in a difficult situation because we’re very dependent on the
U.S. for security,” said Niclas Poitiers at the Bruegel research
institution in Brussels. “Ukraine is a very big part of that, but also
generally our defense is underwritten by NATO.”
“I think there was not a big willingness to pick a major fight, which is
the one (the EU) might have needed with the U.S.” to better position
itself on trade, Poitiers told The Associated Press about key reasons
for von der Leyen to accept the tariff demands.
[to top of second column] |
President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von
der Leyen shake hands after reaching a trade deal at the Trump
Turnberry golf course in Turnberry, Scotland Sunday, July 27, 2025.
(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
 Part of the agreement involves a
commitment to buy American oil and gas. Over the course of the
Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, most of the EU has
slashed its dependence on unreliable energy supplies from Russia,
but Hungary and Slovakia still have not.
“Purchases of U.S. energy products will diversify our sources of
supply and contribute to Europe’s energy security. We will replace
Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of U.S. LNG, oil and
nuclear fuels,” von der Leyen said in Scotland on Sunday.
In essence, as Europe slowly weans itself off Russian energy it is
also struggling to end its reliance on the United States for its
security. The Trump administration has warned its priorities now lie
elsewhere, in Asia, the Middle East and on its own borders.
That was why European allies agreed at NATO’s summit last month to
spend hundreds of billions of dollars more on defense over the next
decade. Primarily for their own security, but also to keep America
among their ranks.
The diplomacy involved was not always elegant.
“Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be
your win,” Rutte wrote in a private text message to Trump, which the
U.S. leader promptly posted on social media.
Rutte brushed off questions about potential embarrassment or concern
that Trump had aired it, saying: “I have absolutely no trouble or
problem with that because there’s nothing in it which had to stay
secret.”
A price Europe feels it must pay
Von der Leyen did not appear obsequious in her meeting with Trump.
She often stared at the floor or smiled politely. She did not rebut
Trump when he said that only America is sending aid to Gaza. The EU
is world’s biggest supplier of aid to the Palestinians.
With Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs hanging over European exports —
whether real or brinksmanship is hard to say — and facing the
prospect of a full-blown trade dispute while Europe’s biggest war in
decades rages, 15% may have been a cheap price to pay.
“In terms of the economic impact on the EU economy itself, it will
be negative,” Poitiers said. “But it’s not something that is on a
comparable magnitude like the energy crisis after the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, or even COVID.”
“This is a negative shock for our economy, but it is something
that’s very manageable,” he said.
It remains an open question as to how long this entente will last.
___
Mark Carlson in Brussels contributed to this report.
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