Islamic State and al-Qaida threat is intense in Africa, with growing
risks in Syria, UN experts say
[July 31, 2025]
By EDITH M. LEDERER
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The threat from Islamic State and al-Qaida
extremists and their affiliates is most intense in parts of Africa, and
risks are growing in Syria, which both groups view as a “a strategic
base for external operations,” U.N. experts said in a new report.
Their report to the U.N. Security Council circulated Wednesday said West
Africa's al-Qaida-linked Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin group, known
as JNIM, and East Africa's al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab have continued to
increase the territory under their control.
The experts monitoring sanctions against the two groups said “the
organization’s pivot towards parts of Africa continued" partly because
of Islamic State losses in the Middle East due to counterterrorism
pressures. There are also “increasing concerns about foreign terrorist
fighters returning to Central Asia and Afghanistan, aiming to undermine
regional security,” they said.
The Islamic State also continues to represent “the most significant
threat” to Europe and the Americas, the experts said, often by
individuals radicalized via social media and encrypted messaging
platforms by its Afghanistan-based Khorasan group.
In the United States, the experts said several alleged terrorist attack
plots were “largely motivated by the Gaza and Israel conflict,” or by
individuals radicalized by IS, also known as ISIL.
They pointed to an American who pledged support to IS and drove into a
crowd in New Orleans on Jan. 1, killing 14 people in the deadliest
attack by al-Qaida or the Islamic State in the U.S. since 2016. In
addition, they said, “Authorities disrupted attacks, including an ISIL-inspired
plot to conduct a mass shooting at a military base in Michigan,” and the
IS Khorasan affiliate issued warnings of plots targeting Americans.
In Africa’s Sahel region, the experts said, JNIM expanded its area of
operations, operating “with relative freedom” in northern Mali and most
of Burkina Faso. There was also a resurgence of activity by the Islamic
State in the Greater Sahara, “particularly along the Niger and Nigeria
border, where the group was seeking to entrench itself.”
“JNIM reached a new level of operational capability to conduct complex
attacks with drones, improvised explosive devices and large numbers of
fighters against well-defended barracks,” the experts said.
In East Africa, they said, “al-Shabab maintained its resilience,
intensifying operations in southern and central Somalia” and continuing
its ties with Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The two groups have reportedly
exchanged weapons and the Houthis have trained al-Shabab fighters, they
said.
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In this file photo released on May 4, 2015, by a militant
website, which has been verified and is consistent with other AP
reporting, Islamic State militants drive in a convoy through Tel
Abyad, northeast Syria. (Militant website via AP, File)
Syria, the experts said, remains “in a volatile and precarious
phase,” six months after the ouster of President Bashar Assad, with
unnamed countries warning of growing risks posed by both IS and
al-Qaida.
“Member states estimated that more than 5,000 foreign terrorist
fighters were involved in the military operation in which Damascus
was taken on Dec. 8,” the experts’ 27-page report said.
Syria’s new interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa led the rebel group
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, once an al-Qaida affiliate that later
split from it. He has promised that the country will transition to a
system that includes Syria’s mosaic of religious and ethnic groups
under fair elections, but skeptics question whether that will
actually happen.
The experts expressed concern at the Syrian military’s announcement
of several senior appointments including “prominent Syrian armed
faction leaders” and six positions for foreigners — three with the
rank of brigadier general and three with the rank of colonel.
“The ideological affiliation of many of these individuals was
unknown, although several were likely to hold violent extremist
views and external ambitions," the report said.
As for financing, the experts said the HTS takeover in Syria was
considered to pose financial problems for the Islamic State and
likely to lead to a decline in its revenues.
Salaries for Islamic State fighters were reduced to $50-$70 per
month and $35 per family, “lower than ever, and not paid regularly,
suggesting financial difficulties,” said the experts, who did not
give previous salaries or family payments.
They said both al-Qaida and the Islamic State vary methods to obtain
money according to locations and their ability to exploit resources,
tax local communities, kidnap for ransom and exploit businesses.
While the extremist groups predominantly move money through cash
transfers and informal money transfer systems known as hawalas, the
experts said the Islamic State has increasingly used female couriers
and hawala systems where data is stored in the cloud to avoid
detection, and “safe drop boxes” where money is deposited at
exchange offices and can only be retrieved with a password or code.
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