Netanyahu's government could collapse over ultra-Orthodox military draft
law
[June 10, 2025]
By MELANIE LIDMAN
BNEI BARAK, Israel (AP) — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a vote
to dissolve parliament Wednesday and key coalition partners have
threatened to bring down his government.
Still, few think it's the end of the road for Israel’s longest-serving
prime minister, who has been battling corruption charges for years, or
his far-right government, still in power after presiding over the
security failures surrounding the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
The move to dissolve, called by the opposition, will only pass if
Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners break with him over the
failure to pass a law exempting their community from military service,
an issue that has bitterly divided Israelis, especially during the
ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.
The threats coming from the ultra-Orthodox could be posturing, and many
expect Netanyahu to pull off a last-minute deal. But Wednesday's vote is
the most serious challenge to Netanyahu's government since the war
began, and the coalition's collapse could have major implications for
Israel and the ongoing war.
Why do the ultra-Orthodox reject military service?
Most Jewish men are required to serve nearly three years of military
service followed by years of reserve duty. Jewish women serve two
mandatory years. But the politically powerful ultra-Orthodox, who make
up roughly 13% of Israeli society, have traditionally received
exemptions if they are studying full-time in religious seminaries. The
exemptions — and the government stipends many seminary students receive
through age 26 — have infuriated the general public.
After Hamas’ 2023 attack, Israel activated 360,000 reservists, its
largest mobilization since the 1973 Mideast war. Israel is engaged in
the longest active war in the country’s history, which has stretched its
robust military to the breaking point.
Many reserve soldiers have served multiple rounds of duty in Gaza
totaling hundreds of days. Some reserve soldiers are rejecting new
call-ups. The number of Israelis continuing to report for reserve duty
has dropped so low that the military has taken to social media to try to
recruit people to keep serving.
The enlistment exemption for the ultra-Orthodox goes back to Israel's
1948 founding, when small numbers of gifted scholars were exempt from
the draft in response to the decimation of Jewish scholarship during the
Holocaust.
But with a push from politically powerful religious parties, the numbers
have swelled to tens of thousands today. Israel's Supreme Court said the
exemptions were illegal in 2017, but repeated extensions and government
delay tactics have prevented a replacement law from being passed.
Among Israel’s Jewish majority, mandatory military service is largely
seen as a melting pot and rite of passage. That’s exactly why some
ultra-Orthodox don’t want their children to serve.
“It mixes together people with very different backgrounds, very
different ideas, some people with very immoral ideas,” said Rabbi
Ephraim Luft, 66, from the ultra-Orthodox stronghold of Bnei Barak. Luft
said the community's dedication to upholding Jewish commandments
protects the country as much as military service.
“Over thousands of years, the Jewish people have stood very strongly
against any kind of decrees to force them to give up their religion,
they’ve given up their lives for this,” Luft said. “People have to
understand there’s no difference between the Spanish Inquisition or the
Israeli draft law.”
Why would ultra-Orthodox parties want to bring down the government?
Two parties belonging to the Haredim, or “God-fearing” in Hebrew, are
essential to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. Both would
need to vote to dissolve the government to force new elections,
including Shas, which has traditionally been more supportive of
Netanyahu.
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An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man shouts during a protest against army
recruitment in Bnei Brak, Israel, Thursday, June 5, 2025. (AP
Photo/Leo Correa)
On Monday, a Shas spokesperson told an ultra-Orthodox radio program
the party currently plans to vote in favor of dissolution, unless
there is a breakthrough in negotiations. The other party, Degel
HaTorah, has been threatening to leave the government since last
week.
“Basically, they don’t really care about the war and the economic
situation of the state and anything else but their communal
interest. And the focus of this communal interest is getting the
exemption from serving in the army," said Shuki Friedman, an expert
on religion and state affairs and vice president of the Jewish
People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.
Friedman and other experts say the current system is unsustainable.
With its high birthrate, the ultra-Orthodox are the fastest-growing
segment of Israel's population, at about 4% annually. Each year,
roughly 13,000 ultra-Orthodox men reach the conscription age of 18,
but less than 10% enlist, according to parliament’s State Control
Committee, which held a hearing examining the issue.
The shock of the Oct. 7 attack appeared to ignite some enthusiasm
among the ultra-Orthodox to serve, but no large enlistment
materialized. The army has repeatedly declined to comment on the
ultra-Orthodox enlistment rate.
What happens if parliament is dissolved?
If the dissolution vote passes, it still faces a series of
bureaucratic steps, including additional votes, that the government
would likely drag on for weeks or months, said Gayil Talshir, a
political science professor at Hebrew University.
“It will be like a gun that's been put into position, but that
doesn't mean the coalition is over,” she said. Elections in Israel
are currently scheduled for the fall of 2026.
Both Talshir and Friedman believe it's unlikely the dissolution vote
will pass Wednesday. If one ultra-Orthodox party is absent, the vote
will not pass and another cannot be brought for six months, Talshir
said.
However, there’s also a “valid possibility” the rabbis who advise
the ultra-Orthodox parties will say they’ve waited long enough for a
draft exemption law, because they are facing enormous pressure from
their communities, Friedman said.
The army has issued thousands of draft notices to the ultra-Orthodox
community, and those who refuse to serve can face arrest. While only
around a dozen have been arrested after being stopped for trying to
leave the country or for traffic violations, the fear this has
inspired is significant, he added.
What impact does this have on the war in Gaza and the hostage
crisis?
Netanyahu frequently cites the ongoing war as a reason why Israel
needs to provide a united front against its enemies. While the
ultra-Orthodox parties remain part of the coalition, they want the
war to end as quickly as possible, Talshir said.
“The Haredim think once the war is over, the pressure will be off
them and they will be able to get their (military) exemption law,”
she said.
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