Medicare and Social Security go-broke dates pushed up due to rising
health care costs, new SSA law
[June 19, 2025]
By FATIMA HUSSEIN
WASHINGTON (AP) — The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security 's
trust funds have moved up as rising health care costs and new
legislation affecting Social Security benefits have contributed to
earlier projected depletion dates, according to an annual report
released Wednesday.
The go-broke date — or the date at which the programs will no longer
have enough funds to pay full benefits — was pushed up to 2033 for
Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund, according to the new report
from the programs' trustees. Last year's report put the go-broke date at
2036.
Meanwhile, Social Security’s trust funds — which cover old age and
disability recipients — will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in
2034, instead of last year’s estimate of 2035. After that point, Social
Security would only be able to pay 81% of benefits.
The trustees say the latest findings show the urgency of needed changes
to the programs, which have faced dire financial projections for
decades. But making changes to the programs has long been politically
unpopular, and lawmakers have repeatedly kicked Social Security and
Medicare’s troubling math to the next generation.
President Donald Trump and other Republicans have vowed not to make any
cuts to Medicare or Social Security, even as they seek to shrink the
federal government’s expenditures.
Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano, sworn into
his role in May, said in a statement that “the financial status of the
trust funds remains a top priority for the Trump Administration.” A
common misconception is that Social Security would be completely unable
to pay benefits once it reaches its go-broke date.
“Current-law projections indicate that Medicare still faces a
substantial financial shortfall that needs to be addressed with further
legislation. Such legislation should be enacted sooner rather than later
to minimize the impact on beneficiaries, providers, and taxpayers,” the
trustees state in the report.
The trustees are made up of six people — the Treasury Secretary serves
as managing trustee, alongside the secretaries of Labor, Health and
Human Services, and the commissioner of Social Security. Two other
presidentially-appointed and Senate-confirmed trustees serve as public
representatives, however those roles have been vacant since July 2015.
About 68 million people are enrolled in Medicare, the federal
government’s health insurance that covers those 65 and older, as well as
people with severe disabilities or illnesses.
Wednesday’s report shows a worsening situation for the Medicare hospital
insurance trust fund compared to last year. But the forecasted go-broke
date of 2033 is still later than the dates of 2031, 2028 and 2026
predicted just a few years ago.
Once the fund’s reserves become depleted, Medicare would be able to
cover only 89% of costs for patients’ hospital visits, hospice care and
nursing home stays or home health care that follow hospital visits.
The report said expenses last year for Medicare’s hospital insurance
trust fund came in higher than expected.
Income exceeded expenditures by nearly $29 billion last year for the
hospital insurance trust fund, the report stated. Trustees expect that
surplus to continue through 2027. Deficits then will follow until the
fund becomes depleted in 2033.
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A Social Security card is displayed on Oct. 12, 2021, in Tigard,
Ore. The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security’s trust
funds have moved up as rising health care costs and new legislation
affecting Social Security benefits have contributed to closer
projected depletion dates. That's according to an annual report
released Wednesday. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane, File)
 A payroll tax on covered earnings
provides the main funding for the hospital insurance trust fund.
Future expenses paid by the fund are expected to increase at a
faster pace than earnings.
Legislation is needed to change those tax rates.
The report states that the Social Security Social Security Fairness
Act, enacted in January, which repealed the Windfall Elimination and
Government Pension Offset provisions of the Social Security Act and
increased Social Security benefit levels for some workers, had an
impact on the depletion date of SSA's trust funds.
Romina Boccia, a director of Budget and Entitlement Policy at the
libertarian CATO Institute called the repeal of the provisions “a
political giveaway masquerading as reform. Instead of tackling
Social Security’s structural imbalances, Congress chose to increase
benefits for a vocal minority—accelerating trust fund insolvency.”
“It’s a clear sign that populist pressure now outweighs fiscal
responsibility and economic sanity on both sides of the aisle,” She
said. “Pair that with a Republican reconciliation bill that
increases tax giveaways while refusing to rein in even the most
dubious Medicaid expansions, and the message is unmistakable:
Washington is still in giveaway mode.”
AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan said “Congress must act to protect
and strengthen the Social Security that Americans have earned and
paid into throughout their working lives.” “More than 69 million
Americans rely on Social Security today and as America’s population
ages, the stability of this vital program only becomes more
important.”
Social Security benefits were last reformed roughly 40 years ago,
when the federal government raised the eligibility age for the
program from 65 to 67. The eligibility age has never changed for
Medicare, with people eligible for the medical coverage when they
turn 65.
Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group
for the popular public benefit program said in a statement that
“there are two options for action: Bringing more money into Social
Security, or reducing benefits. Any politician who doesn’t support
increasing Social Security’s revenue is, by default, supporting
benefit cuts.”
Congressional Budget Office reporting has stated that the biggest
drivers of debt rising in relation to GDP are increasing interest
costs and spending for Medicare and Social Security. An aging
population drives those numbers.
Several legislative proposals have been put forward to address
Social Security's impending insolvency.
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Associated Press reporters Amanda Seitz and Tom Murphy in
Indianapolis contributed to this report.
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