'Bear with me,' Trump says as both farmers and consumers brace for
tariff effects
[March 06, 2025] By
JOSH FUNK and MELINA WALLING
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Farmers and meat producers across the U.S. can expect
the new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China and the retaliatory action
from those countries to hurt their bottom lines by billions of dollars
if they stay in place a while, and consumers could quickly see higher
prices for produce and ground beef.
But some of the impact on farmers might not be felt until the next
harvest and some products might actually get cheaper in the short run
for consumers if exports suffer. And the price of corn, wheat and
soybeans accounts for relatively little of the price of most products.
Plus, President Donald Trump could offer farmers significant aid
payments, as he did during the trade war with China during his first
administration, to offset some of the losses.
In his address to Congress Tuesday night, Trump argued that agricultural
imports hurt American farmers and asked them to "bear with me again" as
he seeks to protect them. He didn't mention any additional aid.
“I love the farmer,” he said.
If the tariffs make farmers uneasy about investing in expensive tractors
and consumers worry so much about groceries that they cut other
spending, that would hurt the economy overall and could even lead to a
recession. And consumers were already worried about record egg prices
amid a bird flu outbreak.
“Exactly how strong our economy is over time has a lot to do with U.S.
consumers' comfort with continuing to go out to restaurants and
continuing to buy washers and dryers and just that general activity. And
a lot of what we’re talking about here is probably going to slow some of
that,” said Glynn Tonsor, an agricultural economist at Kansas State
University.

The situation has some farmers stocking up on equipment and supplies in
preparation for prices to go up, but it's not like they can easily buy
all their fertilizer ahead of time. And consumers might have a hard time
stockpiling perishable products like avocados and ground beef.
The details of how the tariffs are implemented and whether any products
are excluded will also matter.
How will farmers be hurt?
Corn and soybean prices for this year's harvest already fell roughly 10%
since the tariffs were first announced a couple of weeks ago.
Joe Janzen, an agricultural economist with the University of Illinois,
said that has “snuffed out” any profitability in those crops. He called
Trump's comments that farmers may be able to sell more of their products
at home “at best tone deaf.”
“There is no domestic market for the amount of corn, soybeans, wheat,
and other agricultural products that we now export in significant
quantities,” he said.
Meanwhile, as crop prices decline, farmers might see their fertilizer
bill jump because 85% of the potash American farmers use in fertilizer
comes from Canada, which also supplies some nitrogen fertilizer as well.
The Fertilizer Institute President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said “an
open, fair, predictable and transparent trade environment between the
U.S. and Canada is vital.”
“We need potash to raise healthier crops,” said Minnesota farmer Danny
Lundell, who hosted Gov. Tim Walz on his corn and soybean farm near
Cannon Falls on Tuesday. “And it doesn’t matter if you’re big, medium or
small, it’s going to affect you.”
But Iowa State agricultural economist Chad Hart said many farmers
applied fertilizer to their fields last fall and may not have to pay the
higher fertilizer bills until later.
What about meat prices?
The United States imports a lot of lean beef to mix with fattier beef
produced at American plants to make hamburger, and that imported beef
will get more expensive because nearly half of it comes from Canada and
Mexico. That's likely to show up in grocery stores in six to eight
weeks.
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Mark Woodruff loads more soybean seeds into a planter April 22,
2024, in Sabina, Ohio. (AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel, File)
 America exported more than $1.8
billion worth of chicken and another $8.4 billion in red meat to
Mexico, Canada and China. These tariffs could easily lead to a 10%
drop in exports, Tonsor said.
If farmers aren’t able to move that much meat overseas because of
tariffs, they can seek to sell more domestically -- but they’ll
likely have to discount prices. Bad for farmers, but potentially
good for consumers.
The impact will vary by product. For instance,
demand for steaks and bacon may remain relatively steady because
little of that is exported, but the price of hams could drop in the
U.S. because Mexico is a major buyer of those. The price of
specialty cuts like beef tongue that are almost entirely exported
will plummet.
Livestock producers will see a bit of relief because the cost of the
feed they use will decline, but Tonsor said they will still lose
money overall.
How do farmers feel about this?
“Farmers are very concerned,” said Steve Kuiper, a director at the
Iowa Corn Growers Association. "People just aren’t buying stuff,” he
said, which is hitting big companies like John Deere and local
suppliers that sell their equipment.
That’s the case for farmers who grow table crops as well as
commodities. Katy Rogers, who manages an organic farm outside
Indianapolis, said that as soon as Trump started talking about
tariffs she bought everything she thought would see a price hike in
the coming months.
Kuiper hopes that the impacts of tariffs can be mitigated and
eventually lead to a more level playing field that benefits farmers.
He wants to see trade open with more countries. For instance, he
said that for corn, China had already been favoring trade with
Brazil, so he instead sees opportunity in places like India.
But Trump has threatened additional reciprocal tariffs on other
countries on April 2, which could make it harder for farmers to
shift their exports to other countries.
What is the lasting impact?
Trump can do a lot to ease farmers' pain with aid payments. He gave
them more than $22 billion in aid payments in 2019 and nearly $46
billion in 2020, though that year also included aid related to the
pandemic.
But Janzen notes that Trump is working to drastically slash spending
across the federal government.

Walz, who lost his bid to become vice president last fall, said the
tariffs will hurt trading relationships and prompt buyers in China,
Mexico and Canada to look elsewhere.
Some trade experts question how long Trump’s tariffs will last as
they boost prices for American consumers, including his base voters,
who have long complained about inflation and rising food prices.
“It is going to do nothing to help with the food inflation in the
U.S,” said Timothy Wise, author of “Eating Tomorrow” and expert on
agricultural trade between Mexico and the U.S. “I don’t see it as
sustainable. I don’t find it plausible that corporate folks who
surround Trump are going to sit back and allow him to destroy their
foreign markets.”
___
Associated Press writers Steve Karnowski and Megan Janetsky
contributed to this report. Walling reported from Chicago.
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