China's exports and imports weaken in Jan-Feb as demand slides amid
global trade uncertainty
[March 07, 2025] By
ZEN SOO
HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports rose a less-than-expected 2.3% in
January and February from a year earlier while imports fell more than 8%
in a slow start to a year dogged by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and
other policies.
Economists had forecast that exports would rise 5% year-on-year and that
imports would edge higher. China’s overall trade surplus grew to $170.52
billion in the first two months of the year.
China’s customs agency typically publishes combined trade data for
January and February to avoid any distortion from slowdowns during the
week-long Lunar New Year holidays.
“Export growth cooled over the first two months of 2025, with tariff
front-running providing less of a boost to demand than we had
anticipated,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.
“This slowdown comes before any substantial hit from tariffs, which will
almost certainly lead to sharp falls in shipments to the U.S. before
long,” he said.
Evans-Pritchard said that the slowdown in imports suggests that the pick
up in demand driven by government stimulus spending late last year has
“already partially reversed.”
This week, U.S. President Donald Trump's second of two 10% hikes in
tariffs on imports from China took effect and that is likely to hurt
Chinese exports in coming months.
To a certain extent, buyers and
Chinese suppliers had rushed to beat those increases in import
duties.
Chinese officials have slammed the tariff increases but also
expressed confidence that the economy is resilient and that trade
with other countries can help compensate for any declines in exports
to the U.S. after the tariffs took effect. They have also said they
are open to talks on a mutually respectful basis.
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A truck loaded with vehicles moves to lines of vehicles for export
at a port in Yantai in eastern China's Shandong province on Jan. 2,
2025. (Chinatopix via AP, File)
 Last year, exports helped China attain its target economic growth
rate of 5%. The government again has set the target for around 5%,
despite uncertainties over the outlook for trade this year.
Exports to the U.S. grew 2.3% in annual terms in January-February,
while shipments to the European Union and Japan grew just 0.6% and
0.7% respectively. Exports to Russia fell 10.9%.
The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) remained China's
biggest trading partner, with shipments growing 5.7% year-on-year.
“While we don't read too much into a few months of data, the
breakdown does pose questions about how export trends might look
once tariffs start to drag on the U.S., too,” Lynn Song of ING
Economics said in a report.
“With tariffs coming into effect in February and March, it's likely
that the impact will be seen gradually in the coming months,” she
said.
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