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These bullet points include
weather, price, yields, input costs and uncertainty. Many of these
are outside of the control of the producers, but minor decisions
made now will affect the outcome in the fall. Concentration on being
ready to plant in a timely manner is one item. This includes
equipment being made ready, seed supplies in hand, orders for
fertilizer and crop production chemicals taken care of, and the
tillage and application necessary for the planting season completed
in a timely manner.
Last year’s weather was quite a roller coaster for temperatures and
precipitation. For precipitation, the late winter months were dry,
then April was extremely wet. I had over seven inches of rain during
April at my house. This led to a later planting season for most,
with many acres planted from mid-May on. May and June were more
normal, then the July and August periods were very wet with over 11
inches falling over the two-month period. The important thing for
this year is the very dry fall we experienced. Less than an inch of
rain fell in September and again in October, and harvest was
completed with very few delays. The winter months have also been
dry, and this has set us up for rather dry conditions as of early
March.
Looking at the economic
situation, some slight improvement has occurred in the corn and
soybean budget estimates from Paulson, Schnitkey, Zwilling, and
Zulauf. The price outlook has been adjusted slightly upward and corn
figures for Central Illinois now show a $61 per acre loss, with a
breakeven price of $4.60 including all costs. This estimates yields
at 236 and puts land cost at $339 per acre. For soybeans, the
estimates are for a $54 per acre loss based partly on a $10.20
price, 75 bushels per acre for yield, and the same $339 land cost.
The uncertainty comes in the usual areas of weather, planting, and
market prices. The added uncertainty comes largely from a new
administration in Washington, and the fact that no new farm bill is
in place. Operating under an extension of the prior farm bill has
become more common in recent years. Freezing some of the funds
affecting agriculture, reductions in force, foreign policy, and
domestic policy are creating more uncertainty than usual. Add in the
somewhat stubborn inflation, interest rates remaining a bit high,
tightening credit, and the uncertainty factor is probably as high as
it has been since a major war or the Great Depression.
One of the casualties of
federal funding reductions has been the County Yield Estimates
published by the National Ag Statistics Service. Illinois will have
at least one more year of the 2024 yields published at some time,
along with a handful of other states. This is only due to specific
funding of this survey from non-federal sources. Much of the county
level data has been made available from the 2022 Census of
Agriculture.
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A few highlights show Logan
County farm numbers at 623, average farm size is up to 610 acres,
and the average net farm income in 2022 was $277,807. Keep in mind
that 2022 was one of the highest income years ever.
One federal focus area of the Department of Agriculture is to
address “the bird flu,” and more specifically the price of eggs. As
with all commodities, the price of eggs rises and falls based on
demand and availability. The destruction of large flocks at
commercial laying operations has led to an ongoing shortage of eggs,
and the resulting rapid rise in their cost. Possible improvements in
the situation have been examined including additional biosecurity
for operations, utilization of excess broiler industry eggs, and
development and vaccination of flocks as potentials responses. There
will be events which will bring stability to the egg market
eventually; however, don’t look for egg prices of one dollar again
for at least the immediate future.
As always, we look forward to
a good start to the 2025 growing season. Please be alert and patient
on the roadways with increased farm traffic becoming common in the
next few months. And, for the farmers, please be safe by
concentrating and taking breaks when needed. Have a great season!
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