US economic growth to slow in the next 30 years, fueled by debt and
declining birth rates, CBO says
[March 28, 2025] By
FATIMA HUSSEIN and JOSH BOAK
WASHINGTON (AP) — Weak population gains and increased government
spending will result in slower overall economic growth over the next 30
years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Thursday.
The CBO’s latest long-term budget and economic outlook report — for a
timeframe that spans 2025 to 2055 — projects publicly held debt to reach
156% of gross domestic product, or GDP, in 2055. That’s down from the
agency’s March 2024 long-term budget projection, which said publicly
held debt would be equal to a record 166% of American economic activity
by 2054.
However, that's not necessarily a positive.
The mix of slower population growth and unfettered spending will also
result in weaker economic growth over the next three decades than what
the CBO projected last year. Lower birthrates also mean that the United
States is becoming more dependent on immigrants working to sustain
growth.
“Without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink in
2033," the CBO report states.
The report assumes that all the laws set to expire, including certain
provisions of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, will expire. But the White House
and Republican lawmakers have said that the tax cuts will be renewed and
potentially expanded, as well as suggesting reductions in government
spending and an increase in revenues by taxing imports.

Still, the report's warnings and its projections for the future also set
the stage for the challenges on the debt, government spending and
economic growth that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists the Trump
administration can fix.
Bessent has advocated for a “3-3-3” plan, which involves getting the
federal budget deficit down to 3% of GDP, boosting inflation-adjusted
annual GDP growth to 3% and producing the equivalent of an additional 3
million barrels of oil per day by 2028.
The treasury secretary has sought to discredit CBO scoring, calling it
“crazy.”
[to top of second column] |

Scott Bessent, United States Secretary of the Treasury, speaks at an
Economic Club of New York luncheon in New York, March 6, 2025. (AP
Photo/Seth Wenig, File)
 “I was in the investment business
for 35 years, I thought I understood how crazy CBO scoring is,"
Bessent told CNBC earlier this month. "And now that I’m on the other
side of the wall, I can tell you it’s really crazy. And very
unlikely that we are going to get any credit in the CBO scoring for
tariffs.”
However, CBO warnings about population growth cut into Trump
administration policy priorities related to mass deportations, as
officials claim that immigrants are fueling high inflation by
worsening the housing shortage and depriving U.S. citizens of job
opportunities.
A decreasing population could have profound negative effects on the
economy, as growth depends on adding workers as well as increasing
their productivity. Falling population levels could cause a
stagnation in living standards and create difficulties in paying
down debts as well as funding programs such as Social Security,
which is dependent on payroll taxes.
The report also comes as the U.S. is on track to hit its statutory
debt ceiling — the so-called X-date when the country runs short of
money to pay its bills — as early as August without a deal between
Congress and the White House.
The CBO and the Bipartisan Policy Center this week detailed
projections for the U.S. to hit its statutory debt ceiling sometime
this summer — as soon as July or August, respectively.
Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation —which
among other things tracks the federal debt— said in a statement that
“as bad as this outlook is, it represents an ‘optimistic scenario,’
because policymakers are currently considering adding trillions more
in tax cut extensions, which would add to the debt.”
All contents © copyright 2025 Associated Press. All rights reserved |