‘The floodgates have really opened’: Democrats raise millions in special
House elections in Florida
[March 28, 2025]
By KATE PAYNE
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Democrats, with few electoral outlets for their
outrage at President Donald Trump's dramatic restructuring of the
federal government, are pouring millions of dollars into two special
elections in Florida.
That's where Democratic candidates are trying to accomplish the
improbable by flipping a pair of Trump-friendly congressional seats and
carving into Republicans’ narrow 218 to 213 majority in the U.S. House
of Representatives. While Democratic leaders aren't predicting outright
wins in such Republican-leaning districts, they say they think they'll
exceed expectations. And they sound especially hopeful about the 6th
Congressional District, where a public school teacher has out raised a
Trump-endorsed state senator by a nearly 10-to-1 margin in the race to
replace Mike Waltz, who was tapped by Trump to be a national security
adviser in what was widely seen as a move without much political risk.
Democrats' challenge in both districts is formidable, but the money has
been pouring in.
“The floodgates have really opened,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political
scientist at the University of Central Florida. “It’s like, wow.”
Republicans, including Trump, have noticed too, and are looking to head
off an embarrassing outcome. The president joined both Republican
candidates by telephone on separate tele-town halls Thursday to help get
out the vote in the “all-important" elections.
Winning both races next Tuesday would be colossal for a Democratic Party
that has struggled to settle on a way to push back during the early days
of the second Trump administration. Winning either — or even narrowing
the margin in districts the president won by more than 30 points less
than five months ago — could help alleviate the panic that set in among
party leaders after Republicans swept both houses of Congress and the
presidency in November.
An early test in Republican territory
National Democrats point to the fundraising hauls in some of the most
conservative parts of Florida as a sign that voters are already fed up
with the president’s aggressive second term, a message they’re hoping to
parlay into grassroots support — and more money — ahead of the 2026
midterms.
Voters in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will be among
the first to put the new administration to an electoral test in the
April 1 special elections to fill seats once held by former Reps. Matt
Gaetz and Waltz, who were both tapped to join the Trump administration.
Gaetz withdrew from consideration to be attorney general amid
allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied. Waltz currently
finds himself at the center of controversy over the texting of sensitive
military plans for an attack on Houthis in Yemen to a group that
included a journalist.
Democrats Gay Valimont in the 1st District and Josh Weil in the 6th
District have both far outraised and outspent their Trump-backed
Republican competitors, in districts the president won by 30 points or
more in 2024.
Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who’s running in the 1st
District, and state Sen. Randy Fine in the 6th District have both
campaigned as staunch allies of the president, who endorsed them in the
primary.
But with donations for the Democrats flooding in from all 50 states,
Republicans are funneling resources into the races in the hopes the GOP
won't “get embarrassed” Tuesday by a better-than-expected showing by
Democrats.
“I want it to be a landslide,” said Doug Stauffer, chair of the GOP in
Okaloosa County, which is part of the 1st District. “And if it’s not,
then we haven’t done the right thing for the constituents.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is already pushing the message
that if Democrats overperform in the districts, resistance to Trump’s
second term could help them take back the House in 2026.
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Democratic candidate Gay Valimont poses for a portrait outside her
campaign office in Pensacola, Fla. on March 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Kate
Payne)
“These are races that should not under ordinary circumstances be on
anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald
Trump won by more than 30 points,” Jeffries told reporters this
week. “The American people are not buying what the Republicans are
selling. That is why they are on the run.”
In the 6th District, which extends north of Orlando, Florida, Weil
has pulled in an eye-popping $9 million, according to the most
recent campaign finance reports. That’s nearly 10 times the
fundraising reported by Fine, a self-described “conservative
firebrand” and former gambling industry executive known for his
anti-LGBTQ stances and combative approach to politics.
In recent days, Fine has come under pressure from Republican leaders
to raise more money, and has ponied up $600,000 of his own fortune
for his campaign, he told The Associated Press. Plus, outside groups
are spending more than $2 million to help Fine, according to data
from AdImpact, narrowing the fundraising gap.
North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican
Congressional Committee, acknowledged that Fine should have stepped
up his fundraising earlier, but said he'll be a strong member of
Congress.
“I’m not concerned about margins,” Hudson said. “I mean, special
elections are special.”
A call for help from a surprising source
According to an email shared with the AP, even people in Florida
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ orbit are working to gin up support for Fine — a
notable development because of the venom the two Sunshine State
Republicans hold for each other, after Fine publicly turned on
DeSantis to endorse Trump during the 2024 presidential primary.
In a message to voters this week, a DeSantis staffer urged
“grassroots warriors” to knock on doors and make phone calls in the
6th District, saying the race “is at a critical crossroads” and “the
stakes couldn’t be higher.”
Bryan Piligra, a spokesperson for the Fine campaign, said they
appreciate the help.
“The only thing that matters is making sure Republicans are united
to defeat radical Democrats like Josh Weil who will stop at nothing
to destroy President Trump,” Piligra said in a statement.
Weil, in a statement of his own, said the “tides are turning” on the
GOP as Trump pushes to fire federal workers and dismantle federal
agencies.
Weil said he’s grateful to those “who have invested in my campaign
and made this a truly grassroots effort. It’s because of them that
we have Republicans scrambling.”
Still, the chair of the Republican Party of Florida, Evan Power,
said he’s confident the Republican candidates will win their races
because “we have the ground game.” But he acknowledged that turnout
tends to fall significantly during special elections, which could
cut into the GOP’s margin of victory.
“Republicans haven’t done as great in special elections as they do
in general elections,” Power said.
Some observers say the national attention being paid to Democrats in
safe Republican districts is itself a victory for the minority
party. But Jewett, the political scientist, said it would take a
“miracle” for Democrats to win either seat.
“Money is important in elections,” Jewett said. “But it can only —
usually — it can only take you so far.”
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