Transgender people are about 1% of the US population. Yet they're a
political lightning rod
[March 31, 2025]
By GEOFF MULVIHILL and JESSE BEDAYN
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump used contentiousness around
transgender people's access to sports and bathrooms to fire up
conservative voters and sway undecideds. And in his first months back in
office, Trump has pushed the issue further, erasing mention of
transgender people on government websites and passports and trying to
remove them from the military.
It’s a contradiction of numbers that reveals a deep cultural divide:
Transgender people make up less than 1% of the U.S. population, but they
have become a major piece on the political chess board — particularly
Trump’s.
For transgender people and their allies — along with several judges who
have ruled against Trump in response to legal challenges — it’s a matter
of civil rights for a small group. But many Americans believe those
rights had grown too expansive.
The president's spotlight is giving Monday's Transgender Day of
Visibility a different tenor this year.
“What he wants is to scare us into being invisible again,” said Rachel
Crandall Crocker, the executive director of Transgender Michigan who
organized the first Day of Visibility 16 years ago. “We have to show him
we won’t go back.”
So why has this small population found itself with such an outsized role
in American politics?
The focus on transgender people is part of a long-running campaign
Trump's actions reflect a constellation of beliefs that transgender
people are dangerous, are men trying to get access to women's spaces or
are pushed into gender changes that they will later regret.
The American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Medical Association and
other major medical groups have said that gender-affirming treatments
can be medically necessary and are supported by evidence.
Zein Murib, an associate professor of political science and women’s,
gender and sexuality studies at Fordham University, said there has been
a decades-old effort “to reinstate Christian nationalist principles as
the law of the land” that increased its focus on transgender people
after a 2015 U.S. Supreme Court ruling recognizing same-sex marriage
nationwide. It took a few years, but some of the positions gained
traction.
One factor: Proponents of the restrictions lean into broader questions
of fairness and safety, which draw more public attention.
Sports bans and bathroom laws are linked to protecting spaces for women
and girls, even as studies have found transgender women are far more
likely to be victims of violence. Efforts to bar schools from
encouraging gender transition are connected to protecting parental
rights. And bans on gender-affirming care rely partly on the idea that
people might later regret it, though studies have found that to be rare.
Since 2020, about half the states passed laws barring transgender people
from sports competitions aligning with their gender and have banned or
restricted gender-affirming medical care for minors. At least 14 have
adopted laws restricting which bathrooms transgender people can use in
certain buildings.
In February, Iowa became the first state to remove protections for
transgender people from civil rights law.
It's not just political gamesmanship. “I think that whether or not
that’s a politically viable strategy is second to the immediate impact
that that is going to have on trans people," Fordham’s Murib said.
Many voters think transgender rights have gone too far
More than half of voters in the 2024 election — 55% — said support for
transgender rights in the United States has gone too far, according to
AP VoteCast. About 2 in 10 said the level of support has been about
right, and a similar share said support hasn’t gone far enough.
Nevertheless, AP VoteCast also found voters were split on laws banning
gender-affirming medical treatment, such as puberty blockers or hormone
therapy, for minors. Just over half were opposed to these laws, while
just under half were in favor.
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Gene Sorensen holds up a transgender flag in front of the Nebraska
state Capitol during a Transgender Day of Visibility rally, March
31, 2023, in Lincoln, Neb. (Larry Robinson/Lincoln Journal Star via
AP, file)
Trump voters were overwhelmingly likely to say support for
transgender rights has gone too far, while Kamala Harris' voters
were more divided. About 4 in 10 Harris voters said support for
transgender rights has not gone far enough, while 36% said it’s been
about right and about one-quarter said it’s gone too far.
A survey this year from the Pew Research Center found Americans,
including Democrats, have become more slightly more supportive of
requiring transgender athletes to compete on teams that match their
sex at birth and more supportive on bans on gender-affirming medical
care for transgender minors since 2022. Most Democrats still oppose
those kinds of measures, though.
Leor Sapir, a fellow at Manhattan Institute, a right-leaning think
tank, says Trump's and Republicans' positions have given them a
political edge.
“They are putting their opponents, their Democratic opponents, in a
very unfavorable position by having to decide between catering to
their progressive, activist base or their median voter,” he said.
Not everyone agrees.
“People across the political spectrum agree that in fact, the major
crises and major problems facing the United States right now is not
the existence and civic participation of trans people,” said Olivia
Hunt, director of federal policy for Advocates for Trans Equality.
And in the same election that saw Trump return to the presidency,
Delaware voters elected Sarah McBride, the first transgender member
of Congress.
The full political fallout remains to be seen
Paisley Currah, a political science professor at the City University
of New York, said conservatives go after transgender people in part
because they make up such a small portion of the population.
“Because it’s so small, it’s relatively unknown,” said Currah, who
is transgender. “And then Trump has kind of used trans to signify
what’s wrong with the left. You know: ‘It’s just too crazy. It’s too
woke.’”
But Democratic politicians also know the population is relatively
small, said Seth Masket, director of the Center on American Politics
at the University of Denver, who is writing a book about the GOP.
“A lot of Democrats are not particularly fired up to defend this
group,” Masket said, citing polling.
For Republicans, the overall support of transgender rights is
evidence they are out of step with the times.
“The Democrat Party continues to find themselves on the wrong side
of overwhelmingly popular issues, and it proves just how out of
touch they are with Americans," National Republican Congressional
Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said.
Some of that message may be getting through. In early March,
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 Democratic
presidential candidate, launched his new podcast by speaking out
against allowing transgender women and girls competing in women’s
and girls sports.
And several other Democratic officials have said the party spends
too much effort supporting transgender rights. Others, including
U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, have said they oppose transgender
athletes in girls and women’s sports.
Jay Jones, the student government president at Howard University and
a transgender woman, said her peers are largely accepting of
transgender people.
“The Trump administration is trying to weaponize people of the trans
experience … to help give an archenemy or a scapegoat,” she said.
But “I don’t think that is going to be as successful as the strategy
as he thinks that it will be.”
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