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Early vote count favors Australia's government being reelected for a second term

[May 03, 2025] By ROD McGUIRK

MELBOURNE, Australia (AP) — Early vote counting in Australia's general election Saturday suggested the government was likely to be returned for a second term.

The Australian Electoral Commission's early projections gave the ruling center-left Labor Party 70 seats and the conservative opposition coalition 24 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, the lower chamber where parties need a majority to form governments. Unaligned minor parties and independent candidates appeared likely to win 13 seats.

Senior government minister Jim Chalmers said the early results pointed to volatility and different contests across the nation. Opposition Sen. James McGrath expected the result would to too close to call on Saturday.

“I don't think we'll know who the next prime minister of this country is definitely tonight and there'll be a number of seats we'll not know the results this coming week or even next week,” McGrath said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and opposition leader Peter Dutton will address party gatherings in Sydney and Brisbane later Saturday as the Australian Electoral Commission tallies votes. Leaders usually concede defeat and claim victory on the day of the election.

Energy policy and inflation have been major issues in the campaign, with both sides agreeing the country faces a cost of living crisis.

Opposition leader branded ‘DOGE-y Dutton’

Dutton's conservative Liberal Party blames government waste for fueling inflation and increasing interest rates, and has pledged to ax more than one in five public service jobs to reduce government spending.

While both say the country should reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, Dutton argues that relying on more nuclear power instead of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind turbines would deliver less expensive electricity.

The ruling center-left Labor Party has branded the opposition leader “DOGE-y Dutton” and accused his party of mimicking U.S. President Donald Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency.

Labor argues Dutton's administration would slash services to pay for its nuclear ambitions.

“We’ve seen the attempt to run American-style politics here of division and pitting Australians against each other and I think that’s not the Australian way,” Albanese said.

Albanese also noted that his government had improved relations with China, which removed a series of official and unofficial trade barriers that had cost Australian exporters 20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year since Labor came to power in 2022.

Dutton wants to become the first opposition leader to oust a first-term government since 1931, when Australians were reeling from the Great Depression.

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Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his son Nathan place their votes in a ballot box at a polling booth in his electorate in Sydney, Saturday, May 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

If Albanese wins, he'll become the first Australian prime minister to win successive elections in 21 years.

A cost of living crisis as the country faces generational change

The election is taking place against a backdrop of what both sides of politics describe as a cost of living crisis.

Foodbank Australia, the nation's largest food relief charity, reported 3.4 million households in the country of 27 million people experienced food insecurity last year.

That meant Australians were skipping meals, eating less or worrying about running out of food before they could afford to buy more.

The central bank reduced its benchmark cash interest rate by a quarter percentage point in February to 4.1% in an indication that the worst of the financial hardship had passed. The rate is widely expected to be cut again at the bank’s next board meeting on May 20, this time to encourage investment amid the international economic uncertainty generated by Trump’s tariff policies.

Both campaigns have focused on Australia’s changing demographics. The election is the first in Australia in which Baby Boomers, born between born between the end of World War II and 1964, are outnumbered by younger voters.

Both campaigns promised policies to help first-home buyers buy into a property market that is too expensive for many.

The election could produce a minority government

Going into the election, Labor held a narrow majority of 78 seats in a 151-seat House of Representatives. There will be 150 seats in the next parliament due to redistributions.

A loss of more than two seats could force Labor to attempt to form a minority government with the support of unaligned lawmakers.

There was a minority government after the 2010 election, and the last one before that was during World War II.

The last time neither party won a majority, it took 17 days after the polls closed before key independent lawmakers announced they would support a Labor administration.

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