Threatened by Trump tariffs, Japan walks a delicate tightrope between US
and China
[May 06, 2025] By
MARI YAMAGUCHI and DIDI TANG
WASHINGTON (AP) — Just as Japan's top trade negotiator traveled to
Washington for another round of tariff talks last week, a bipartisan
delegation bearing the name of “Japan-China Friendship” wrapped up a
visit to Beijing.
A week earlier, the head of the junior party in Japan's ruling coalition
was in Beijing delivering a letter from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru
Ishiba addressed to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Details of the letter
are unknown, but the two sides discussed U.S. tariffs in addition to
bilateral issues.
Among all U.S. allies being wooed by Beijing in its tariff stare-down
with Washington, Japan stands out.
It is a peculiar case not only for its staunch commitment to its
alliance with the United States but also for its complicated and uneasy
history with the neighboring Asian giant — particularly the war history
from the 20th century that still casts a shadow over the politics of
today.
“On one hand, they are neighbors and they are important economic
partners. There’s a lot that connects Japan and China,” said Matthew
Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the
Council on Foreign Relations. “But on the other hand, I think there are
limits to how far they’re going to lean into China.”
While Japan won't walk away from its alliance with the United States,
the linchpin of the Asian country's diplomacy and security policies,
“it's also true that the tariffs and uncertainty that Trump has created
for Japan is really shaking things up in Tokyo,” Goodman said.
Last month, President Donald Trump announced a 24% tariff on Japanese
goods in a sweeping plan to levy duties on about 90 countries. The White
House has since paused the tariffs but a 10% baseline duty on all
countries except China, allowing time for negotiations. Still, Trump's
25% tax on aluminum, steel and auto exports have gone into effect for
Japan.
The tariff moves, as well as Trump's “America First” agenda, have cast
doubts among the Japanese if the United States is still a dependable
ally, while China is rallying support from tariff-threatened countries —
including Japan.
In Beijing, Japan sees positive signs
When Tetsuo Saito led Japan's Komeito Party delegation to Beijing in
late April, China hinted at difficulty in its tariff dispute with the
United States, signaling its willingness to improve ties with Tokyo. An
unnamed senior Chinese official said his country was "in trouble” when
discussing Trump's 145% tariff on Chinese products, according to
Japanese reports.
Saito's visit was soon followed by that of the bipartisan delegation of
Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians' Union. Zhao Leji, Beijing's top
legislator, told the delegation that China's National People's Congress
would be “willing to carry out various forms of dialogue and exchanges."
Beijing did not lift a ban on Japan's seafood imports as the Japanese
delegates hoped, but it signaled positive signs on its assessment of the
safety of the discharges of treated radioactive wastewater from the
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Beijing banned Japan's seafood
products in 2023, citing those concerns.
Ties between Tokyo and Beijing have long been rocky. In the past several
years, they squabbled not only over the seafood ban but also
long-standing territorial disputes over the Senkaku, or Diaoyu, islands
in the East China Sea, Beijing's growing military assertiveness and
violence against Japanese nationals in China — an issue complicated by
the nations' uneasy history.
Tokyo's closer ties with Washington during Joe Biden's presidency also
upset Beijing, which saw it as part of the U.S. strategy to contain
China and has lectured Tokyo to “face squarely and reflect on the
history of aggression.”
An imperial power in Asia for centuries, China fell behind Japan in the
19th century when Japan began to embrace Western industrialization and
grew into a formidable economic and military power. It invaded China in
the 1930s and controlled the northeastern territory known as Manchuria.
War atrocities, including the Nanking Massacre and the use of chemical
and biological weapons and human medical experiments in Manchuria, have
left deep scars in China. They have yet to be healed, though Japan's
conservative politicians today still attempt to deny the aggression.
[to top of second column] |
President Donald Trump, left, poses for a photo with Chinese
President Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20
summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)
Ishiba, elected Japan's prime minister in October, has a more neutral
view on his country's wartime history than the late Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe and his two successors. Weeks after taking office, Ishiba
held talks with Xi on the sidelines of a leaders' summit.
Chinese scholars, however, see Tokyo's recent engagements with Beijing
as a pragmatic move to hedge against U.S. protectionism and not a
long-term strategy for stability with China.
The odds are low for Japan to move into China's orbit, Goodman said.
“They have for a long time had to manage an important but challenging
relationship with China," he said. “And that is, again, a long-standing
problem for Japan, going back centuries or millennia.”
Seeking tariff deals and stable ties in the US
While Japan might welcome the friendlier tone from Beijing, it is trying
to stabilize Japan-U.S. relations under Trump's “America First” agenda,
and it is hoping to settle the tariff dispute without confronting
Washington, with an eye on preventing Beijing from exploiting any
fallout in Japan-U.S. relations.
Japan was among the first countries to hold tariff talks with
Washington. During the first round in mid-April, Trump inserted himself
into the discussions, a sign of the high stakes for the United States to
reach a deal with Japan. The Trump administration reportedly pushed for
Japan to buy more U.S.-made cars and open its market to U.S. beef, rice
and potatoes.
After the second round of negotiation in Washington last week, Ryosei
Akazawa, the country's chief tariff negotiator, said he pushed Japan's
request that the U.S. drop tariffs and was continuing efforts toward an
agreement acceptable to both sides. He said Japan's auto industry was
already hurting from the 25% tariff and that he needed to be “thorough
but fast.”
Asked about China, Akazawa said only that his country keeps watching the
U.S.-China tariff development “with great interest." He noted Japan's
deep trade ties with China.
Competing in Southeast Asia
While China and Japan are working to mend ties, the two are also
competing in the Southeast Asia region, where Trump has threatened high
tariffs as well. The region is deeply integrated into China's supply
chain but under pressure from the West to diversify and reduce its
reliance on China. With younger and growing populations as compared to
East Asia, the region is considered an important growth center.
Japan, as a major postwar development aid contributor, has gradually
regained trust in the region, which also was scarred by Japan's World
War II past.
On Wednesday, Ishiba returned from Vietnam and the Philippines after
agreeing with their leaders to further strengthen security and economic
ties. During the visit, Ishiba stressed Japan’s commitment to
maintaining and strengthening a multilateral free-trade system in each
country. Ishiba also had telephone talks with his Malaysian and
Singaporean counterparts earlier this month about U.S. tariffs.
Just weeks earlier, Xi was in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, also
stressing free trade and seeking stronger supply chains.
At a recent discussion at the Washington-based think tank Hudson
Institute, Itsunori Onodera, Japan's governing party policy chief,
warned of “very unstable” feelings among many Asian countries faced with
high tariffs from the United States.
“There’s a danger they might become more distant and become closer to
China,” Onodera said. “This is not something that Japan wants, either.”
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Yamaguchi reported from Tokyo.
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